10NL : Another Odd Villian line

[Evilpopcorn]

Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR [Street Aggression] 3-bet%)

24/8 [1 2 inf] 2% over 134 hands

My Thoughts And Questions

Villian is nitty with aggression and likes limping a lot preflop.

Flop Cbet is standard but when i get called a know he has something or a nut flush draw. Can see him limp/calling lots of Axs hands and PPs.

I like this turn card cos this makes it less likely that villian has AT and will get me more calls out of his PPs. Also the flush didnt drop so get more value from those hands.

The river bet confused me. When he c/c the turn i think its not very likely he has a T here. So getting 3 to 1 on my call do i have to make it thinking that this is some sort of blocker bet with a PP, or a weak attempt at a busted flush draw?


Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

BTN: $10.20
SB: $10.65
BB: $4.55
UTG: $18.60
Hero (MP): $10.55
CO: $8.75

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with 9 9
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) 3 T 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.70, UTG calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.35) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

River: ($5.35) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20

[Hoopy]

Getting 3 to 1 on this call is likely good enough, I'd look him up and be sure to take a note.

[sarbox68]

If it’s a blocker bet, it’s a crappy one. Your line looks a lot like at least top or over pair, unless he’s got a read on you that you dbl barrel draws or some sh!t like that (in which case, there wouldn't be much need to "blocking bet" the river 'cause you would have missed your draw and either check thru or snap off a bluff). If he checks the River and you continued your Turn line and 2/3psb the Ri, your bet size would be $3.50… so he’s risking getting raised to save $1.30 w/ a “blocking bet” vs someone who’s playing like they got something?

Looks to me more like a value bet that he wants to price in a call for. Tx hands are still alive and well in his range. So is 33,55,88, and yes, TT… and since you say he loves to limp, what about JJ & QQ? You are squashed by all of that. What do you beat? A busted draw that’s been willing to call down your PFR and 2 streets of betting and now makes a wimpy ass bluff on the River. “nitty with aggression” just doesn’t fit for me with that…

With the above range and a bunch of broadway FDs thrown in, you’ve still only got 25% equity.

Board: 3c Ts 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.855% 21.85% 00.00% 22069 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 78.145% 78.15% 00.00% 78911 0.00 { QQ-TT, 88, 55-44, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, KcQc, KcJc, KTs, QcJc, QTs, JTs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T8o+ }

So IMHO… 1) you’ve made it clear for 3 streets that you like your hand, 2) it looks like he’s value betting you on the River and 3) you’re not looking good against anything but his bluff range. I’m leaning towards a call being a donation with your under-pair barring any other reads…

[sarbox68]

Ok... so if I'd put the whole f-king board into Pstove instead of just the flop, that might work better....

Board: 3c Ts 5c Td 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.438% 16.44% 00.00% 12 0.00 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 83.562% 83.56% 00.00% 61 0.00 { QQ-TT, 88, 55-44, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, KcQc, KcJc, KTs, QcJc, QTs, JTs, T8s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T8o+ }

Of course... you're now MUCH worse off with < 20% equity.... I didn't do it 'cause I'm lazy, but I'd be willing to bet you could add just about the entire plausible busted FD range and you still wouldn't have anywhere near the equity to call...

[settecba]

I ran the calcs with all the busted FD(considering Axs, given OP reads, but no gappers), and heros equity is just good enough if villains bets close to all his busted FDs. Also...i might have messed up somewhere and I have my notes at work, so i cant go over them again, but whatever...id also make the call and TAKE NOTE inmediately.

[settecba]

1 other thought that is probably meaningless and just a coincidence:

Villain´s bet size is exactly the amount he would need to get(to break even) from a river value bet if he called our turn bet with a FD.

Could that mean anything? Or is it just a coincidence like 95% of the time?

[sarbox68]

I'm just trying to figure out what this lead really accomplishes for him. As a bluff, it's weak both in size (if he's trying to look like trips or a boat) and he obv can't rep a made flush.

And if he assumes that Hero's gonna stay with the same 2/3 PSB Ri bet line... he's not saving much over a check/call, and risking getting raised if Hero's bluffing/getting jiggy/has vry strong hand as a blocking bet to get to SD.

So why lead out? Countering the weak bluff argument is not wanting to miss value by giving OP the chance to check thru with a hand that Vil feels confident he can beat. So price it right so the result is the soul searching about call or fold that we have here... coincidentally, almost the perfect amount for OP to have to call if he puts busted flush draws in Vils range. Such genius.......

Call for information is an option I 'spose since you do have some equity if vil has retarded bluff sizing in his attempt to rep trips w/ a busted draw.

I look him up because fish generally will bluff one street
although his bet looks really strong actually, I've seen some retarded thinigs

[Micro2Macro]

1 other thought that is probably meaningless and just a coincidence:

Villain´s bet size is exactly the amount he would need to get(to break even) from a river value bet if he called our turn bet with a FD.

Could that mean anything? Or is it just a coincidence like 95% of the time?

HE IS A GAME THEORIST. LEAVE TABLE IMMEDIATELY OR PREPARE TO GET OWNED.

[sarbox68]

HE IS A BOT. LEAVE TABLE IMMEDIATELY OR PREPARE TO GET REPEATEDLY SHOWN THIS LINE OVER AND OVER IN THE EXACT SAME SITUATION.

FYP

[Micro2Macro]

hah, that is actually so much more likely at 10nl.

[settecba]

LOL @ what my stupid thought turned into...