Giving Your Opponent Bad Odds

[golfguy37]

For simplicities sake, lets say Everyone at the table has $100, blinds are $0.50/$1.00.

Hero is dealt: 9s As
Villain is dealt: 10h 10d (Lets say I know this)

Preflop: Villain is UTG + 1 and raises to $5. Hero is on the button and calls $5. Everyone else folded.

Pot is now $11.50

Flop: 8s 10s 4h

(I have 9 outs total)

Villain bets $12
Hero calls $12

Pot: $35.50

Turn: Qs

Villain bets $12
Hero ???

The question is: How much do I have to raise him to give him bad odds to call and ultimately profit in the long run. He has 10 outs out of 46 total cards (21.7%). We both still have $83 (he has $71 after the turn bet). What is the right amount to raise here? Give math reasoning please.

[Stacks]

Pretty sure you messed up the Hands. Villain should have As9s, and us with TT?

[golfguy37]

Nope, it's right. For some devine reason, I know he has a set and I want to give him bad odds to win the hand. How much do I have to bet to A) make him fold or B) Put enough money in to pot to make it not worth calling for the long run.

[bjsaust]

I think he meant Qs so we have the flush and we know he has a set drawing to a boat?

[Chopper]

Pretty sure you messed up the Hands. Villain should have As9s, and us with TT?

hero just hit the nut flush. villain has the boat redraw. OP is asking what to bet to deny odds to the redraw. its not messed up.

what i want to know is why hero chased unprofitably on the flop when facing a pot sized bet if this is a lesson about drawing profitably/unprofitably??

and, all you have to do to figure out the answer is calculate the % chance that villain will hit his boat with one card to come and offer more than that % of the current pot.

staxx, my bad, i was assuming the Qh was a spade. looks like i need to learn to read hands....lol. but, assuming OP wanted to make the hand where he hit his flush, the rest is correct. maybe OP needs to edit his post to correct that??

[Stacks]

The hand history is messed up in some manner. I'm gonna go with what everyone else assumes and say you messed up the turn card and it was supposed to hit your flush, instead of well not hitting the flush. Either way... It's pretty simple to determine what to raise to so that he doesn't get proper pot odds... Will you be able to do it exactly at the table, probably not.

Simple calculate his equity vs your hand.. Then raise an amount that when he is facing your raise and the pot size, he is forced into putting hin a large % of his stack than the % he will hit.

And chopper, hero's call on the flop was against the immediate pot odds but def +EV with regards to implied odds, and even the chances of villain check/folding the turn. When we call the flop we are getting 2:1, meaning if we can make $24 dollars when we hit we will be breakeven. Well $24 would only be a 2/3 PSB, so it shouldn't be too hard most of the time.

[golfguy37]

Yes, sorry I did mean the Queen of Spades not hearts. Sorry about that. So Villain has 21.7% chance of rivering the full house...

21.7% of $83 is 18 dollars, although the min raise would be to $24. Assuming we both ended up getting our money in the middle by the river, 21.7% of $200 is $43.40... So a pot sized reraise would be in order?

well if you know what he has, you'd fold if he hit his FH on the river

[golfguy37]

Here is another scenario only in reverse:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 80000+1000 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t1810)
Button (t6137)
Hero (SB) (t5457)
BB (t5435)
UTG (t7260)
UTG+1 (t4207)
MP1 (t7069)
MP2 (t3125)

Hero's M: 18.19

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t200, 1 fold, MP2 calls t200, 2 folds, Hero calls t100, BB checks

Flop: (t800) 3, 3, Q (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t200, 1 fold, MP2 calls t200, Hero calls t200

Turn: (t1400) 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t600, MP2 calls t600, Hero calls t600

River: (t3200) 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t1600, 1 fold, Hero calls t1600

Total pot: t6400

I felt pretty secure on the flop and chose to slow play it. On the turn, I first saw the possibility of a flush. At first I didn't see it because he bet instead of calling and I put him on a weak 5 or an A Q. Lets say I knew he had the flush: I could have cought a 3 (1 out), Ace (3 outs), a Queen (3 Outs), a Deuce (3 outs), or a 7 (3 outs): For a total of 13 outs, 28.3%. Assuming he couldnt lay it down if I the board paired the river or an ace/3 came, did I have the right odds to call the turn?

[Stacks]

1) Fold PF in your A3 hand. (2) Lead out on the flop. (3) Just because he bets the turn you can't only put him on a flush draw. Even if that's the case you are getting ~3.3:1 pot odds, and only need to make <1 unit (600) on the river when you hit, assuming he has the flush, but he could still have a lot of hands you beat.

[golfguy37]

I called preflop because I was in the Small Blind and could get in for cheap. So I was getting good odds to see the river (3:1 Pot odds, and probably even better implied odds), but when I missed the river, was it OK to make the call for 1600?

[bigspenda73]

golfguy I'm not going to allow you to start any more threads until you prove to me you've at least tried to use the search function beforehand in every thread you create.

good luck on the felts

[golfguy37]

lol I'm sorry... I will do that from now on. But can someone answer my previous questions:

but when I missed the river, was it OK to make the call for 1600?

21.7% of $83 is 18 dollars, although the min raise would be to $24. Assuming we both ended up getting our money in the middle by the river, 21.7% of $200 is $43.40... So a pot sized reraise would be in order?

-Is it supposed to be > 20% of his remaining stack, > 20% of the pot, or > 20% of our combined starting stack? IE: > $16 (21.7% of $73), > $10 (21.7% of $47.500, or > $43.40 (21.7% of $200)?

now, if you suspect he has a set, and you go all in on the river because he could have a lower flush then 21.7% of $200

[golfguy37]

So, $43.50? Then I would have to make it a little bit more so his odds aren't break even, but they are bad... so $50 would be the right amount to bet I guess. Thanks!