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Is this a +EV play?

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  1. 04-25-2009 12:15 PM #1
    chrisa's Avatar
    chrisa
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    Default Is this a +EV play?

    Villain has been on the table for about 6 orbits. Saw him show down TPTK which he played very aggressively but that's about it.

    Totally lost with this hand. I put him all in basically but I'm not sure if calling may have been a better option, or maybe even folding. Thought there was a good chance he had a set though.

    Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    saw flop | saw showdown

    Hero (Button) ($15)
    SB ($12.45)
    BB ($12.18)
    UTG ($9.26)
    MP ($9.40)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
    1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.45, 1 fold, BB calls $0.35, 1 fold

    Flop: ($1.05) 3, K, 2 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BB raises to $2.85, Hero raises to $8, BB raises to $11.73 (All-In), Hero calls $0.88

    Turn: ($18.81) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

    River: ($18.81) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    Total pot: $18.81

    Results in white below:
    Hero had K, A (two pair, Aces and Kings).
    BB had 2, 2 (three of a kind, twos).
    Outcome: BB won $23.31
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  2. 04-25-2009 12:42 PM #2
    XTR1000's Avatar
    XTR1000
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    30% equity no matta wat. Get it in all day and dont feel bad about it.
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
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    yo
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  3. 04-25-2009 02:43 PM #3
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    Top pair and nut flush draw, Ship it in!
    You crush everything but 22 and 33, definitely +EV.
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  4. 04-25-2009 09:14 PM #4
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    Its a monster flop for you. Shipit.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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  5. 04-25-2009 09:22 PM #5
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    In before stacks says "he has a set you should fold"
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  6. 04-25-2009 09:25 PM #6
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    These are the hands you play poker hoping to flop.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
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  7. 04-25-2009 09:53 PM #7
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    In a vaccuum, No not +EV. You lost money on the play.

    As a whole, if you do get it AI PF against all comers all the time. Yes, very + ev.
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
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