JJ + OESD facing big turn bet

[chrisa]

Villain has 184 BBs so I'm assuming he's decent. Just sat down at this table with no real reads. Imo, he could possibly have 99+, AQd+, AQc+, AQo+, maybe KJ but unlikely. Is it profitable to be calling/shoving in these spots in the long run?

Also, I like to move tables a lot but I'm noticing that in hands such as these, I'm lacking reads since I'm new to the table. Should I just stick to the same tables in a session?

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($7.03)
Hero (Button) ($9.50)
SB ($18.39)
BB ($31.40)
UTG ($9.70)
MP ($11.97)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.45, SB raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.55

Flop: ($2.20) 9, Q, 10 (2 players)
SB bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.40) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $4.40, HERO?

Total pot: $4.40 | Rake: $0.20

[kmind]

I'd play it the same but fold now. I agree with your range and he could possible have AK but I really doubt it. I also strongly disagree with looking at this stack and then saying "oh he's good". Especially given his preflop action...

[chrisa]

I've seen people around here use PokerStove so I decided to download it for myself. I'm not too sure what it means however.

Board: 9c Qd Td 2c
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	40.958%  	39.87% 	01.09% 	           807 	       22.00   { JdJh }
Hand 1: 	59.042%  	57.95% 	01.09% 	          1173 	       22.00   { 99+, AcKc, AdKd, AcQc, AdQd, AQo+ }

[Stacks]

Just a fwiw regarding you Pokerstove range, I assume you believe he is only 2barreling here with AK if he has a flush draw also, so AdKd, AcKc. However, when you put in AQo+, this adds in all combos of AQ, and AK (14 combos more than you had intended). So your equity in the pot is increased quite a bit more than I think you were intending for?

[JKDS]

Expected value = EV= bet *equity - pot *(1-equity)

pokerstove calculates equity, and we know the pot and bet, so we can determine if a play is +EV or will generate money over time. I dont think he ever has AK on this turn though.

[chrisa]

Just a fwiw regarding you Pokerstove range, I assume you believe he is only 2barreling here with AK if he has a flush draw also, so AdKd, AcKc. However, when you put in AQo+, this adds in all combos of AQ, and AK (14 combos more than you had intended). So your equity in the pot is increased quite a bit more than I think you were intending for?

This is correct?

Board: Qd Td 2c 9c
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	24.636%  	22.64% 	02.00% 	           249 	       22.00   { JdJh }
Hand 1: 	75.364%  	73.36% 	02.00% 	           807 	       22.00   { 99+, AcKc, AdKd, AcQc, AdQd }

How do I calculate if a call/push would be +EV/-EV?

[Stacks]

If you think that's his range, then you need to figure your pot odds on a call and compare that to your equity in the pot.

In order to determine if a raise is correct, then you need to figure out how he plays each hand in his range, and determine how much fold equity you have, and how much equity you have when called.

If you can figure out this information, then you can do just a little math and determine your EV of each play.

For instance:
If we put his turn betting range at 99+, AcKc, AdKd, AQ, then we have 24% equity against his turn betting range. (Note: I'm not saying this is a correct range. I'm just using your example. I would say he likely doesn't bet full pot on the turn with AK all that often, so the ranges need to be weighted, but they aren't). Well given he bet Full Pot, we are getting 2:1 and therefore need 33% equity to make a Breakeven call. Given we only have 24%, a call is -EV. However, if he bet something like 1/2 pot, then we would be getting 3:1, and need only 25% equity to have a BE call, and it would be much closer.

Since a call is -EV in this situation, which must now consider whether to fold or raise. Even though calling is -EV, it may be +EV to raise if we have enough fold equity in combination with the equity we have when called. In this situation based on his large turn lead, and the odds he would be getting if you shoved, then I would think he likely calls everything in your range that he leads turn with {99+, AdKd, AcKc, AQ}. So, if that's the case, then you have 0 fold equity, and you still have the same equity as you had when he bet, so it's still -EV. However, if he was folding some portion of his range, then we would need to find out how often he is folding (usually done by finding the total number of hand combos he is betting and the number he is folding, then dividing [# of folding combos] / [total # of combos], which gives you the % he folds). Then we find our equity agains the range he continues with, then we do some math:

EV = (% he calls)(Ev[call]) + (% he folds)(Ev[fold])

Ev[call] = (Our equity)(total pot) - (amount it cost us)

Ev[fold] = (amount we win when he folds) = current pot before our action.

And using those formulas, you can correctly determine whether a raise is correct.

[dtamburin]

Your getting 2:1 pot odds on the turn, so you need to win 1/3 of the time to break even. With the range of hands he could have and since you don't even have top pair, I'm folding. Even if you hit a miracle card on the river, I don't think calling is justified as your stack size just isn't big enough to give you the implied odds to do it.

[chrisa]

Also, I like to move tables a lot but I'm noticing that in hands such as these, I'm lacking reads since I'm new to the table. Should I just stick to the same tables in a session?

Bump.