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What hands in villains 3betting range are you expecting to get value from when you lead the flop here? Although, I wouldn't expect to get raised too terribly often, how do you feel you fair if villain raises?
Your obviously not likely to get 3 streets of value against villains KK/JJ/TT type hands. If villain is really bad, and the turn J didn't come, you might get 3 streets against AJ/AT, if that's even in his min3betting range. By leading the flop, I can see you only getting value from like KK/Ax, and he likely isn't calling those hands on the flop 100% of the time, and even if he is he isn't likely putting in much money on the turn and river with them.
However, by leading the flop you are potentially taking away a good portion of villains range that you do beat, such as bluffs and weaker hands like the KK/Ax. By check/calling you let him put in money when he is behind more often, whether as a bluff or him valuebetting a worse hand.
If I check/call the flop, I likely c/f this turn. AQ/AJ/AA/QQ/JJ all beat you. You tie with AK, and I wouldn't expect him to bet the flop and turn with KK/TT, or many worse Ax hands. This effectively covers the main portion of his min3betting range (although this is total assumption).
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