I wish I had air

[Irisheyes]

Villain is the sickest MSNL player where I play, owns me on a daily basis. My flop leading range is lacking here but I'm not sure what he will think of it. He's 28/22/2.4 FWIW.

$2.5/$5 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN ($1139.31)
Hero (SB) ($502.50)
BB ($509.55)

Pre-flop: ($7.50, 4 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, BTN raises to $17.50, Hero calls $15, BB calls $12.50

Flop: ($52.50, 3 players)
Hero bets $34, BB folds, BTN calls $34

Turn: ($120.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $111, BTN calls $111

River: ($342.50, 2 players)
Hero ($340)?

[Fnord]

Ummm... you have a set. They're usually good.

Either value bet or check to induce a value bet/bluff from him.

[BooG690]

You seem good to me...

[kmind]

You seem good to me...

?

[meeloche]

I'm kinda torn. On one hand he's gonna think your range is pretty polarized and maybe that you have more bluffs in your range cause its pretty hard to make a set. But on the other hand you can be nutted on this board super often.

I think i'd jam it's really the only way to get called by worse (unfortunately its a psb) cause I don't think he's gonna bet the river with anything that you beat and you have a set so there's still value.

[bigspenda73]

Pf seems kinda meh if he's that good

[griffey24]

ummm.. I don't get it? How can we not shove here?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

shove obv but also bluff this spot more, obv!

yeah idunno man, looks like a really obvious shove to me. What was the question?

[Toadstool]

Are you thinking that if you shove, he will most likely put you on a set and be able to play perfectly? hence you getting no value, and so are looking for an alternative line?

[Irisheyes]

Yeah something like that. I think he will perceive my range to be mostly sets/hearts/89 if I shove and I'm hardly ever getting called by worse hands on the river.

I guess as massimo says I just need to bluff more and I guess if I led this flop more as a bluff with overs or whatever than my natural reaction would be to barrel this turn and river.

Do people think that leading this flop and betting the turn with KQo is acceptable?

[griffey24]

I think its fine to bet overs here sometimes (if you have reads on opponents) or with backdoor FD's or something. But I don't think Tx is particularly a great second barrel card.

[griffey24]

I think its fine to bet overs here sometimes (if you have reads on opponents) or with backdoor FD's or something. But I don't think Tx is particularly a great second barrel card.

[AFchung]

wait.. what are we scared of here?

if he's good, would he be calling your turn PSB with a flush draw? he should have a made hand trying to get to showdown

[dsaxton]

I'd think the only hands you should be worried about are Ah-4h or Ah-5h, and these hands probably fold the turn almost always. Seems like he has an overpair or 8-8. Although he probably mucks these to a river bet a lot of the time, it's the only way to get value, so I think you should definitely bet.

Like Massimo said, this probably just means you should bluff more, but I can't imagine it being a great idea to be playing a $350 pot with K high or something by the river. Bear in mind the board / action had to fall perfect in order for this situation to come up.

[boos1122]

YOu are well. Just raise. I dont believe he have a flush or someting else. YOu have the set and thats the best hand now in my opinion

[Irisheyes]

See I think you're all saying 'shove for value' when he hardly ever calls with a worse hand but then you say 'hey that's ok we can just bluff more here' when it's actually pretty hard for us to have any hands we can bluff with.

[pocketfours]

See I think you're all saying 'shove for value' when he hardly ever calls with a worse hand but then you say 'hey that's ok we can just bluff more here' when it's actually pretty hard for us to have any hands we can bluff with.

I agree, but why then do you bet the turn? Seems to me that after the flop lead your correct play is to c/c turn check river on this board.

[Toadstool]

I also agree with both points. That you should bluff more in this spot, but in this situation you haven't been (i assume), so you have to take into account villain will not put bluffs into your range. As far as hands you can put into your range to get to this spot with where you would shove the river in this situation as a bluff, I'd just use small pairs that haven't hit a set. 22/44/66/88. Should give you a decent bluffing frequency on the river. Plus they have 6 decent outs compared to KQ an that.

If he is going to put you on such a strong range, and being a good player he probably will, as for an alternative line if you aren't going to get value form a shove, how about a smallish bet of ~ 60?

FWIW I think villain has you beat a % of the time here. 1010/JJ/89/A4hh are in his range along with QQ/KK/AA. I can't really see him getting to the river with much else.

[griffey24]

If you REALLLLY think this particular villain will never call a shove with worse, then just bet smaller. It's not a crime to bet like $120ish even here if that's all the value you think you can get. He might even spazz shove over a small bet.

[Irisheyes]

Toad:
Yeah I'm giving him roughly the same range as you, probably add 45hh/56hh/A5hh etc, even 85hh perhaps.

When you say bet 60 do you mean b/f or b/c? I can definitely see this guy turning QQ+ into bluffs if I bet 60 so I'm not sure I like the idea of either 60/f or 60/c.

On the other hand I think if I check he's more likely to just take his showdown with QQ+ which I think makes a straight c/f an option.

p4's:
I'm confused as to what I would be repping with c/c turn line; 7x that decided to lead the flop rather than have it check around? I think it's a viable line because it opens his river bluffing range up huge on so many cards.

[griffey24]

Didn't notice Toad said to bet small in the post before mine!

Definitely if you're betting small here it's with the intention of calling and not folding. If you're willing to shove here, then when you bet small you kinda have to call it off and hope you induced from more worse hands.

Betting small and folding with a set here is pretty gross.

[pocketfours]

p4's:
I'm confused as to what I would be repping with c/c turn line; 7x that decided to lead the flop rather than have it check around? I think it's a viable line because it opens his river bluffing range up huge on so many cards.

A c/c puts a lot of mediocre pair/draw combos and perhaps 88/99 in our range where we are praying for a free showdown on the river.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Your right, you cant really show up with many bluffs here. But you cant not shove here.

[GatorJH]

there has been some very good discussion itt.

[Genitruc]

what if we were deep and had 2.5x psb behind?