QQ Death flop, bad bet

[ColdDecked]

Villain is 17.17/14.85/2.18 with a fold to 3bet % of 92 prior to this hand over a sample size of 559 hands. This was the third time villain raised preflop in this orbit. I think I was playing around 24/15/2.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

SB ($10)
BB ($4.26)
UTG ($10.02)
MP1 ($20.09)
MP2 ($4.28)
Hero (MP3) ($22.17)
CO ($9.63)
Button ($1.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, Q
UTG calls $0.10, MP1 bets $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises $2, 5 folds, MP1 calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 10, J, 6 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, MP1 raises $8.28, Hero folds

Total pot: $10.25

Results in white below:
MP1 didn't show
Outcome: MP1 won $15.02

I realized how bad of a bet this was on the flop, right after i clicked the bet. With such a low 3bet calling %, the villain would most likely hold TT-AA, AK. I haven't seen the villain 4bet a hand yet so I don't know if the villain would have 4bet AA or KK. In hindsight, I guess that even against the non-hearts AK, he'd have 8 outs, and AhKh would have 17 outs, TT and JJ has us beat, and the fact that our hand essentially has no outs (well, since it makes us the 2nd best hand and the Q is a huge scare card), this should have been an obvious check.

I was also wondering if I took the line of checking the flop, and if he bets $3 into me on a turn blank, would a call be correct? There are still so many cards that can force us to fold on the river, and we only really beat AK here.

Let's say I call and if another blank hits the river and he bets half pot, do we call or fold?

Is the best line to take if a Q hits to check/call, then check/call a non heart river?

[sil693]

why do we 3bet if villain folds to 3bet 92% of the time?? TT+ / AK seems a loose calling range given his stats and that he is OOP, Id say it seems to be more like QQ+ / AKs.

[ColdDecked]

I 3bet since there were 2 really loose players left to act. CO and BB had 40+ vpip (although it was only a sample size of about 50) and they've been calling a lot, and I didn't want to have a multiway pot with QQ. I thought that if I called his raise, that either the CO or BB would come along. The raise wasn't really to put more money into the pot, I just wanted to take down the pot right there. I thought that I'd have bad relative position post flop, which made me a little uneasy for the call. Is this bad reasoning for 3betting? Would it be better if I called preflop and hoped nobody tags along?

[Monty3038]

Ok, I struggle a bit in these situations as well... I think 3-betting pre-flop to isolate MP1 is ok, I don't really mind it, but I tend to 3-bet a little differently or too often.

I think with the number of hands you have on villian, his range is pretty tight, but what is he check raising with post flop? Have you seen him do that before? If so, knowing that might have made post flop easier... I agree TT and JJ are well within his range, as is QQ+, your 3/4 pot bet though, what image did you have, does he put you on AJ here? Or something Jack oriented? Hmm... I do think you're likely beat, but I think I have a hard time not calling his check raise, at least seeing another card. That is likely a leak on my part though.

[ColdDecked]

Well, image-wise, there are a few things going against me.

1. I was planning to quit after I finish the round. He probably saw me leaving the other tables he was at, and this table was the last I was about to leave.

2. I've been running bad. AA and KK last night was a combined -$37.65, all of which were in preflop. Ran into Aces with Kings three times, and a big multiway all in pot preflop, where someone caught a set. All the other times I got Aces or Kings, nobody called. Sigh.

3. I sometimes 3bet pretty light against loose short stacks trying to steal on the button when I'm in the blinds. I find it to be generally a profitable play.

And just thinking about betsizing now, since the villain folds 3bet so often, should we make a smaller 3bet?

As for J oriented hands, I think JJ would be the only one that he could put me on. I've shown down a few AJ/AQ/AK flatted hands. The only time, if I remember correctly, seeing him check-raise was a pot where he raised UTG or UTG+1 with JTs on a 789 2 suited board, and I got stacked with a set of 8's. At least that's the one that stuck in my head =/

[Gshark]

To be honest, IPITS. Your raise is alright pf and I wouldn't have checked the flop with an over pair. You made the right fold IMO.