I got lucky (...in poker)

[Gshark]

Hand below was strange for me. I'm not usually a calling station, and although I do gamble on occasion this was a little more reckless than my usual line. I basically didn't believe this guy as he was raising crazy amounts every hand and I had seen him showdown with Q high at least twice so far. I got lucky on this one, but thats besides the point - did I play this as bad as I think I did?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($11.36)
SB ($4.28)
BB ($12.07)
UTG ($10.92)
Hero (MP) ($5.83)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, K
1 fold, Hero bets $0.15, 1 fold, SB calls $0.13, BB raises to $0.95, Hero calls $0.80, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.05) J, 10, K (2 players)
BB bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.25) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $1.95, Hero calls $1.95

River: ($8.15) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $3.15, Hero calls $1.83 (All-In)

Total pot: $11.81 | Rake: $0.55

[BooG690]

What are his preflop and 3bet stats? He was asking to be called playing like such a maniac...you called a maniac down with TP. I've done that and I don't see anything wrong with that. However, again, his PF and 3bet stats are important.

[Gshark]

Here's the villain's stats. Sorry for not including this. 52/40/3.4 over 100 hands.

[loonychune]

I think you can make this call profitably. You did right in not raising at any point in the hand since he's gonna be inclined to bluff the river with Qx that didn't get there, flush draws that didn't get there and complete air.

When you call the turn, you are basically calling $3.78 to take down an $8.03 pot since you have to call the river and we expect him to bet.

I've made up 30% of his range with Qx hands that you split the pot with if you hit your straight on the river (which you do 17.4% of the time).

To be able to call correctly we need your EV to be,

EV = 0.174[0.3(0.23) + 0.7(4.25)] + 0.826[P*(8.03) - 3.78] >= 0

where P is the probability you win on the river when you don't make a straight.

Solving this, we get P >= 0.39.

So you need 39% or better equity vs his range on the river.

This you easily have if we can include missed flush draws and Qx and complete air in his range.

----------------------------------------------------

EV = (probability we make our straight)*[(prob. we split)*(amount won when we split) + (prob we don't split)*(amount won when we don't)]
+
(probability we don't make a straight)*[(our equity vs his range when we don't make straight)*(total pot size) - (cost of calling)]

[loonychune]

I had seen him showdown with Q high at least twice so far

What's important is how many times he barrelled with complete air. We know he's opening a tonne of crap for ridiculous amounts, but he might never bet the turn or river when you don't give up. Unlikely, and you can't get away from the river anyway (so even if you haven't seen him 3 barrel you still need to call), but it's not just what he's shown down, but how he got to showing that hand down.

super duper standard, you have top pair in a 3b pot
your SPR is 4, the guy is crazy

I'd just shove the turn because I feel like he'd pay you off with a flush draw and might not bluff the river because you're never folding anything on the river

[mieczkowusc]

I would fold PF or 4 bet him if he really is as stupid aggro as you say. The fact that you are in position makes it less bad, but even so, KQo doesn't generally play well against aggression.

As played, I get it in on the flop or the turn and be pretty pleased with flopping well against an aggro-donk.

[S1x]

Those people that raise often like that sometimes make decisions tough for me, but it looks like he missed catching something most of the time there. The turn pretty much commits you, so I'd go all in there and hope for the best.

[Gshark]

Thanks for the replies. To be honest, I felt that I got passively committed to the pot. by the time i got to the river I had to call regardless of what he bet. Maybe I should have folded pf, but I had a good feeling about it.

In the end I did win. He had pocket 9s. He did have a gunshot straight draw, but with so many over cards I think he played this terribly. If a Q had peeled off I would have played this differently.

Do you really 4 bet an aggro guy on a drawy board? I guess if I'm trying to induce the shove i'd understand...

There is no way I am cbetting in a 3b pot with 99