A Problem I Have

[RoyalProdigy]

I have a problem in my game and i consider it a leak. I never want to believe the guy i'm in the pot with. When it comes to heads up in a pot play i never want to believe him. The only time i believe a guy is when i know he is TAG but when i don't have the information on a guy i just have a problem believing his bets. This provokes a lot of raising on my part, not folding. I think this may be killing my sng finishes because ive been going out on the bubble a lot. I'm playing with all these guys who are raising with A-8o from EP making garbage moves with K-2s from Ep so when i get like 99 and they raise half my stack (we will say i have 2000) and i'm in the BB (400) so i'm left with 1600 what am i supposed to do fold fold fold till i have shit left for a stack. Hell no i push bubble or not i play to win so he flips over A-8 and i'm out of course with a A-10-4 Flop. When he raises to 1000 and i already have 400 in and i'm looking at 99 i mean wtf c/f? This has happened to me 3 times in a row tonight, just slighty different hands. Bubble Bubble F@cking BUBBLE!!!!

Cash games i can fold easier because there is no increase in blinds and i can be more patient but sometimes i still find myself not believing the jackass who raises the pot every frigen time hes in the pot which is every 4 hands. I do not like to be pushed around at a table so i try and put them in check by raising them with premium hands sometimes even if i miss the flop, and of course i do this when i think they are bluffing.

I really don't even know what information i'm looking for. I just feel i have a huge problem with believing anyone when they bet the pot without any real threat to a good hand on the board in a heads up pot. So that board is instigating a call or a raise from me with a not so good hand because the player bets strong because hes weak as hell. I can hang tighter in a cash game but with sngs it comes to the point where everyone is playing BS and making moves with it and i feel i spot it only to loose with a better hand or to loose because i was tottaly wrong and he bet the pot because he actually had a strong hand. This is frusterating and confusing, as much as i hate it is as much as i luv it. I don't know bla bla bla i don't know wth to do about this dillema. i geuss i will just raise the hell out everyone i think is bluffing. lmao JK guys

Really though sometimes i'm dead on with my reads in these situations but othertimes i 'm dead wrong.

[Micro2Macro]

I have a problem in my game and i consider it a leak. I never want to believe the guy i'm in the pot with. When it comes to heads up in a pot play i never want to believe him. The only time i believe a guy is when i know he is TAG but when i don't have the information on a guy i just have a problem believing his bets. This provokes a lot of raising on my part, not folding. I think this may be killing my sng finishes because ive been going out on the bubble a lot. I'm playing with all these guys who are raising with A-8o from EP making garbage moves with K-2s from Ep so when i get like 99 and they raise half my stack (we will say i have 2000) and i'm in the BB (400) so i'm left with 1600 what am i supposed to do fold fold fold till i have shit left for a stack. Hell no i push bubble or not i play to win so he flips over A-8 and i'm out of course with a A-10-4 Flop. When he raises to 1000 and i already have 400 in and i'm looking at 99 i mean wtf c/f? This has happened to me 3 times in a row tonight, just slighty different hands. Bubble Bubble F@cking BUBBLE!!!!

Cash games i can fold easier because there is no increase in blinds and i can be more patient but sometimes i still find myself not believing the jackass who raises the pot every frigen time hes in the pot which is every 4 hands. I do not like to be pushed around at a table so i try and put them in check by raising them with premium hands sometimes even if i miss the flop, and of course i do this when i think they are bluffing.

I really don't even know what information i'm looking for. I just feel i have a huge problem with believing anyone when they bet the pot without any real threat to a good hand on the board in a heads up pot. So that board is instigating a call or a raise from me with a not so good hand because the player bets strong because hes weak as hell. I can hang tighter in a cash game but with sngs it comes to the point where everyone is playing BS and making moves with it and i feel i spot it only to loose with a better hand or to loose because i was tottaly wrong and he bet the pot because he actually had a strong hand. This is frusterating and confusing, as much as i hate it is as much as i luv it. I don't know bla bla bla i don't know wth to do about this dillema. i geuss i will just raise the hell out everyone i think is bluffing. lmao JK guys

Really though sometimes i'm dead on with my reads in these situations but othertimes i 'm dead wrong.

This is just variance. And I doubt you've even seen the worst of it yet.

You sound like your going through one of those stages where everyone is just catching cards against you. After seeing so many showdowns won by your opponents your brain goes a little weird and you feel like everyone is bluffing you.

But they aren't! Just keep playing your game and you'll end up fine. I've experienced this before and I've learned that the best thing you can do is play through. Eventually you'll start going on rushes where you'll be raising so often because you've got the goods so often, people won't believe you, and then you get paid off and your messy cooler is just a dent in your PT graph because your thousands of hands beyond it now.

[Stacks]

You need to be putting this individuals on a range, regardless of whether or not you think they are FOS. An individual who is FOS still has strong hands in their range at times which needs to be accounted for. If in this situation your hand is ahead of the range (which should account for hands he would do this for value with, bluff with, etc), then you likely don't need to fold fold fold.

However, remember you also have a range of hands in any given spot. And you should begin to think how you would play your range in this spot. Pure bluffs are hard to accomplish, because they have to work so often to be effective. This is why when you make some kind of bluff raise, or float, etc., that it is generally ideal to do so with a hand that has some sort of equity against villains calling range. For example:

If the board is 852tt, and we are IP. Villain cbets into us, and he is cbetting rather often.. Well I would be more inclined to raise a gutshot or overcards than I would a hand like 33. Yes, I believe a raise here will be profitable a good % of the time as he will fold often. However, I want to choose a range of hands that I will be bluff raising with here that has equity when called.

oh and getting 99 aipf against A8o and losing isn't the same as not believing villain. Because obviously you were ahead.

[RoyalProdigy]

Thank you both for your comments.

oh and getting 99 aipf against A8o and losing isn't the same as not believing villain. Because obviously you were ahead.

He raised big preflop like he had at least jacks and thats what i was afraid of was jacks but he was raising ofton so i figured it would be a coin flip. i was the BB and had 2000 chips blind was 400 and he raised to 1200 or 1000 and to me it was push or fold and with the blinds liek that it meant push to me.Thats what i mean by believing peoples raises. So i pushed and hit just hit the f@ck it call button and A on the flop. EVERYHAND i showed prior to these nines were premium hands with one exception a BB special. He was chipleader so he just said screw it and called without really thinking. I didnt believe his raise that time and i was right but i just feel like i'm always geussing then second geussing a persons raise. I do put people on a range of hands but when its shorthanded in a sng i struggle with it a bit. I can understand his call because why would he fold for only 800 more with 1200 commited.
I was just using this hand as an example of believing the raisor preflop.

Thanks for your your comments and will keep them in the front of my mind.

[Stacks]

Your still not thinking about ranges. You said he raised preflop like he had at least JJ. Well when I raise preflop it's always the same size. So I could have JJ, KK, AA, AK, A2, 68, J9, etc. It all depends on my range in that position and situation. When you start trying to put individuals on single hands with that little information then you will start to make incorrect plays because you will tailor your play for him having only that hand.

And I haven't played SNGs in quite a few months but with only 5bb you are allin with 99 like 100% of the time.

[RoyalProdigy]

I do put people on ranges of hands watching their bets and showdowns so i can put them on a even better range on hands in the future. I try to narrow them down to a single hand though when i'm in a pot with them.(usually the one that may beat me lol) But factor in the hands that won't beat me that they may hold as well. But in sngs it gets tougher to use ranges when someone raises everyhand because the blinds are big and their chip leader with 4 players left going raise 3x raise 3x raise 3x. You know they don't have a hand everytime and their just doing it because they can afford to roll the dice. Thats why i said "He raised big preflop like he had at least jacks and thats what i was afraid of was jacks but he was -raising ofton- so i figured it would be a coin flip" How can you put a guy on a range who raises like a fool EVERYHAND for 2 orbits straight?

I do the same thing you do when i raise its always the same. I understand the importance of keeping your hand hidden, so others can't put you on a range.

[Stacks]

Your looking at this wrong and therefore coming to the wrong conclusions. You say you put individuals on a range of hands, yet when you are in a pot with them you try to put them on a single hand. Well I've already stated the problems with trying to put a villain on a single hand when you just don't have enough information to do that. You will either (A) put them on a hand that you beat or (B) put them on a hand that beats you. Well in both instances you are likely to make a mistake in the hand because they aren't going to have that one hand often enough to play the hand in the manner you are going to play it in.

Example... I raise from MP to 4xbb. You call on the BU. The flop is 45Att. I cbet 3/4 pot. If you try to put me on a single hand here you will fail hard... I'm likely cbetting a very large portion of my range. This will include hands like AJ+, 44, 55, AA, KQ, KJ, 66+, etc. If you try to put me on just AJ and therefore you raise with AK then you are going to be pwning yourself the times I have 44, 55, AA. And when I don't have those hands you are probably going to be missing value by blowing me off my hand too soon. You HAVE to think in ranges. You are not so good that you can soul read individuals.

And yes.. You can still put these individuals that shove allin very often on a range. Sometimes your range will be too tight, or sometimes it will be too loose, but you can still put them on a range. If an individual is shoving UTG on the bubble of a SNG, then I'm likely to leave hands like 72o, 23o, 95o, etc out of their range (barring blinds to stack ratios). So while your range might not be 100% accurate it's better than saying "well I have T9... I think he actually has T8 this time so I'm going to call and pwn him"!!


And please will people stop posting about villains shoving allin every hand in a SNG. There are times when this is going to be a fine strategy if only you use a tad bit of discretion.

[Stacks]

And regarding the raise size remaining the same for me... It isn't so that villains can't put me on a range. Because they will still be able to do that to some extent. It's just so they don't know where I am at in that range.

Another example: If I raise to 4x preflop from UTG in a FR game, thinking players will have some sort of idea of where I'm at and what range I have for making this raise from this position at this table. Depending on the player it could be 22+, AJ+, KQ.. It could be 66+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs.. Or any other combination of hands. However, by raising the same amount they don't know if I have the 66 or the AA. This is a basic way of balancing your range.

[Micro2Macro]

And please will people stop posting about villains shoving allin every hand in a SNG. There are times when this is going to be a fine strategy if only you use a tad bit of discretion.

3 letters...

ICM

[Sir Pawnalot]

My sng strategy was really simple when I started out. Extremely tight early, gung ho when blinds were high. I had a ROI of 30 percent on Partypoker (10 dollars sng, sample size around 600) without any poker experience.

I think what made it so easy for me was that I NEVER gave away fold equity. If I raised, i would never fold. Ever.

I do not play quite like that now (I change gears more in late game- to maintain maximum fold equity), and my ROI is around 60% at 10 dollars sng after 160 games. (68 % after 84 games at Carbonpoker (my new site), 53 % after 94 games at Pokerroom).

Basically- you steal a lot of blinds and then freeroll with them. Villain needs to get lucky twice, or thrice to knock you out...

It is kind of reverse ICM- people are so afraid to bubble that chances for stealing is very high. People react to your style by waiting for someone else to get knocked out or to get a monster hand. THen they finally get fed up and reraise with 8Ts, you call with A8 and knock them out.

There are a lot of other factors to consider oc, but this aint no article. Stack sizes are crucial (If you have a big stack, I believe you have a built in luck factor so that SNGS will end sooner- this is very questionable though, but plausible) so are perceived image and villains readjustments.

I am very tired and this was a shitty post (edit: by me) but I believe people fold too much in late game. With this style no sensible player would bluff me- so when they bet and I fold they get frustrated and I readjust again.

PLZ no "Bad advice" until someone can prove a higher ROI. (without MTT oc)

[Sir Pawnalot]

"I do put people on ranges of hands watching their bets and showdowns so i can put them on a even better range on hands in the future. I try to narrow them down to a single hand though when i'm in a pot with them.(usually the one that may beat me lol) But factor in the hands that won't beat me that they may hold as well."

Your responses are great XXXstacks, but please read posts before answering.

I think you missed the word "TRY". If you base your decisions on a flat range you will not be able to make the best possible move. You also need to consider the likelihood of him having different hands. Think about this scenario:

Villain is always 4 betting AA, 75% with KK, 50 % with QQ, 25 % with JJ, he never 4 bets AK, or AQ.

You hold KK- you dominate his range, but do you still call?

People don't 4bet KK 75% of the time and AA 100% of the time

if they're going to 4b KK 75% of the time, they're probably 4betting AA like 50% of the time since it's a better hand to slowplay
not 4b KK is definitely slowplaying unless you're playing against one of those legendarily tight nits