10 10 facing large river bet

[kfaess]

Ok so I don't really have much of an idea of where I stand in this hand after he calls my preflop raise and flop bet. After going back and looking at it, the turn check seems really bad and maybe I should have made another 1/2 to 3/4 pot bet here just so he doesn't get any free cards?

When I was actually playing I was scared he was already ahead by the turn and I was just putting more money in a pot where I'm behind, but maybe I should be thinking bet instead.

I think I kind of have to fold to the river bet?

Any thoughts would be appreciated, thanks.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($11.77)
BB ($2.48)
UTG ($6.50)
MP ($12.83)
Hero (Button) ($5.96)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 10
UTG calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.25, SB calls $0.23, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.80) 5, 8, J (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.65, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Turn: ($2.10) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.10) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero ???

Total pot: $2.10 | Rake: $0.10

[kb coolman]

maybe I should have made another 1/2 to 3/4 pot bet here just so he doesn't get any free cards?

Yes.

[bigspenda73]

OP what do you think the turn card does for his range?

[kfaess]

OP what do you think the turn card does for his range?

That's a good point and something I wasn't really thinking about.

Since he called the raise preflop we can assume that most of the time he has a decent starting hand. The Q will pair hands like AQ, KQ, Q10s. It will also give him a flush draw if he has spades, complete a strait if he has 9 10, or give him a gut shot with hands like A9, K9.

So I guess after the turn comes we are still ahead of more of his range than not.

But something else to consider is that he already has a jack with AJ, KJ etc..

[AFchung]

when the straight and backdoor flush completes, and you have third pair, do you think that he's going to be firing $2 into a $2 pot with air?

probably not.

[Blazing_Saddler]

I would fold, you aren't beating much, the draws came in. Get the hell out of there.

[jackvance]

The turn check is fine, there are 2 overcards now you don't have to bet to 'protect your hand' or anything. On the river he suddenly bets pots meaning he either wants to steal the pot with air or he has a pretty strong hand. So most likely not Jx, more like he he turned the Q, he has 5x, 9T or the backdoor flush (all not too likely). If you have some sort of indication (ie read) that he is the kind of guy who likes to steal pots then you can call - this needs to be a bluff more than 1/3 to be a good call. Then again I don't see a heck of a lot of hands that would want to call the flop and then bluff the river, he would have to have floated you with complete air..

when the straight and backdoor flush completes, and you have third pair, do you think that he's going to be firing $2 into a $2 pot with air?

probably not.

I would
for the above reasons

the villain, however, is probably not thinking about what you're thinking

[HarleyGuy13]

OP what do you think the turn card does for his range?

That's a good point and something I wasn't really thinking about.

Since he called the raise preflop we can assume that most of the time he has a decent starting hand. The Q will pair hands like AQ, KQ, Q10s. It will also give him a flush draw if he has spades, complete a strait if he has 9 10, or give him a gut shot with hands like A9, K9.

So I guess after the turn comes we are still ahead of more of his range than not.

But something else to consider is that he already has a jack with AJ, KJ etc..

I'm to donkish to really comment on hand, but I really like how Bigspenda fed him enough to think it through farther than he had. And he did it without making him cry!
Damn he might be a good Mod

[killerkebab]

That queen didn't change much of anything. I doubt he's calling your flop bet with hands like AQ or KQ, so if you were ahead on the flop you're ahead on the turn imo. Bet out.

As played we have to fold, I don't think he's bluffing the river by betting full pot here. For this to be a profitable call for you he'd have to be bluffing >33% of the time.

[grindinginnj]

FOLD!

[GatorJH]

That queen didn't change much of anything. I doubt he's calling your flop bet with hands like AQ or KQ, so if you were ahead on the flop you're ahead on the turn imo. Bet out.

As played we have to fold, I don't think he's bluffing the river by betting full pot here. For this to be a profitable call for you he'd have to be bluffing >33% of the time.

What hands are we beating in villain's range that will call two streets?

[kfaess]

That queen didn't change much of anything. I doubt he's calling your flop bet with hands like AQ or KQ, so if you were ahead on the flop you're ahead on the turn imo. Bet out.

As played we have to fold, I don't think he's bluffing the river by betting full pot here. For this to be a profitable call for you he'd have to be bluffing >33% of the time.

What hands are we beating in villain's range that will call two streets?

If I was going to bet the turn than I would do it to not give him a free card and a free chance at winning the pot. I wouldn't bet this turn to try and get worse hands to call becuase we aren't beating many hands that would call.

[bigspenda73]

Looking at how a turn card affects/improves your opponents range can really help you determine how to play certain hands in these spots. This card is not necessarily the best example, a better one would be a Jack on a T9x flop, with Hero holding something like KK/AA.

If you look at a ton of possible hands that might call a flop bet at lower levels (talking about the T9xJ board) like QJ/QT/Q9/89/8T/etc... you will see that a ton of hands have improved to, in your opponents mind, pretty strong holdings all the while still not ahead of your hand. This would be mainly why we wouldn't two-barrel with like AK in this spot as even though our opponent has a mediocre one pair hand they will have almost always picked up some sort of straight draw, leaving us with a lot less fold equity.

In OPs example, the turn card completes the most obvious straight draw and makes two gutshots (QT/Q9) into top pair type hands. The only hand we'd more than likely be extracting value from on the turn would be 67/89 and that just doesn't make up enough of our opponents range. The great thing about position is we can check back this turn and analyze our opponent's river action. The bet-size is rather big for a river bet, that tells me 1 of 2 things:

1. he has a big hand and has missed value and is making up for it
2. he's bluffing

I would then have to look at his river bet timing, his past value-bet sizes, and try to determine if I think he could be betting Jx for nearly full-pot on the end or if I felt he was good enough to turn 8x into a bluff.

[kfaess]

good stuff, thanks for the help guys

[AFchung]

1. he has a big hand and has missed value and is making up for it
2. he's bluffing

I would then have to look at his river bet timing, his past value-bet sizes, and try to determine if I think he could be betting Jx for nearly full-pot on the end or if I felt he was good enough to turn 8x into a bluff.

and then factor in that we're playing 5NL and #2 is probably a lot less likely imo