100NL: AA on Paired flop

[Stacks]

Villain is 12/6/3 over 1.2k with a 12% raise flop cbet percentage. What's your play here on the flop? And what's your turn line?


$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ilovegyoza ($97.85)
UTG+1 yoshmitsu ($98.50)
MP1 sgang ($101.50)
MP2 Hero ($220.40)
CO vector23 ($232.40)
BTN I_h8_p0ker ($118.35)
SB 99killed ($97.50)
BB FrAnWaN ($223.15)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 8 players) Hero is MP2
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, I_h8_p0ker calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $8, I_h8_p0ker raises to $16, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($41.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, I_h8_p0ker bets $22, $22 to Hero ($200.4)?

[KillsAids]

on one side the board is extremely drawheavy and therefore he could have a pretty wide array of draws and/or could only be playing back at us. I think in the heat of the battle I would either close my eyes and shove or call flop and shove safe turn...

...But I feel folding is the best play here. There's a fair chance we can already be behind here and drawing to 2 outs, and even when we're ahead and villain has a draw, he can pretty much represent half the deck when the next card rolls off. Here's a list of cards he can represent and to which we will pretty much have to fold: 10 clubs, three J, two T, three Q, three K, three 9 = 24. This is more than 50% of the deck.

I think a fold would be the most sensible play because we haven't invested a lot yet, and because if villain doesn't have a good hand/draw, this board will scare him too and we won't make any more value.

I'd like to hear what other players have to say about this.

[vaks]

Id probably reraise here, to like 34, and fold to a shove...
only time ive played with this person (i think) was earlier today and i have him at 19/9/2... so i dont think hes that good, and he made a really stupid play... similar to this... he minraised my flop bet, so i reminrasied him and i bet like 3/4 the pot on turn and he mucked...

besides that I think we are stil probably good here, and his minraise doesnt tell us that we are beat... you could call and try to use pot control for the rest of the hand... and maybe try to VB somewhat small on the river i dno... but i think we are head of villian most of the time

[daven]

cib, shove a 4-bet.
If he calls then 3/4 psb on turn.
I stack off too easy?

A ten is not the only card he could have. What maximizes our expectation against most of his range? That's right, we 3-b the flop because we expect to get paid by draw/overcard combinations that mistakenly believe they have 14 or 15 outs.

[badgers]

3bet/call and 3bet/fold both seem really bad. We have the A of clubs so that seriously reduces the number of draws he can have because he's a nit. 3bet/fold is bad because it's like we're turning our hand into a bluff and when a nit minraises a board like this that seems fairly dumb.

So I think I just prefer call over fold. He can just about be vbetting worse (QQ/KK), as a nit he is likely to check behind the turn with a draw telling us exactly what he has, and of course we have a backdoor draw.

There are very few draws if any that are in his range however, the more I think about this, so a fold seems ok too.

[pokerfan]

this guy is a nitty regular and like to minraise/fold with worse holdings in my memory. So i think 3 bet on this flop is not optimal strategy. When you play against a guy who throws out a feeler minraise to see where he stands, you just let him hang himself with your decent hands and 3 bet bluff with air..

[Stacks]

What about now on the turn? (Changed OP).

My thoughts on the flop where that this is the type of board I could be expected to be played back on. I don't hate folding, but it was the last thing I would consider here given how I figured him to play back here. Not to mention we are ahead of all but Tx, and JJ at the time. The thing about 3betting was while it makes him pay for draws, I wouldn't really expect a 12/6 to felt worse if I 3bet.

So I decided on a call, and to re-evalute the turn. This turn card is ldo gorgeous. What's my line here? Do I check and let him check behind with all his draw hands, or lead out?

[Muzzard]

I thought about this for a few mins and I got to say this hand/situation sucks.

bet again?

his range can't just be boats/trips

[badgers]

check, call a small bet fold to a large bet.

[Fnord]

Let's see a turn card.

Too much equity and money behind to fold.

[Muzzard]

Let's see a turn card.

Too much equity and money behind to fold.

We have seen a turn card...

[Fnord]

Check, lets see how much he likes his hand.

Got to work on turning sets....

[pokerfan]

b/f on the turn($25 or so). If he flat call on the turn, i'd shove on any good-looking river and expect to beat his AJs, QQ or even KK. I dont think he is brave enough to bluff/raise you.

[Fnord]

b/f on the turn($25 or so). If he flat call on the turn, i'd shove on any good-looking river and expect to beat his AJs, QQ or even KK. I dont think he is brave enough to bluff/raise you.

Have full ring ranges gotten wide enough to want to do this?

[pokerfan]

b/f on the turn($25 or so). If he flat call on the turn, i'd shove on any good-looking river and expect to beat his AJs, QQ or even KK. I dont think he is brave enough to bluff/raise you.

Have full ring ranges gotten wide enough to want to do this?

Our AA is good enough to get more value from TPTK or overpairs and deny drawing odds at the same time on this turn. His button calling range should be wide IMO. Also, any flush cards coming out on the river will certainly freeze actions on both sides and our AA loses value in that situation.

[Stacks]

*Changed OP*

Okay... So I checked the turn... What' my play here given his 1/2 PSB. My thoughts was I really dislike just calling. I mean I expect him to bet Jx, Tx, here, but there are still so many draws out there. What's our line here?

[badgers]

b/f on the turn($25 or so). If he flat call on the turn, i'd shove on any good-looking river and expect to beat his AJs, QQ or even KK. I dont think he is brave enough to bluff/raise you.

Have full ring ranges gotten wide enough to want to do this?

NO

[badgers]

call turn, let's see river plz.

[Deanglow]

Any line that includes folding should not be in this thread, except to a river shove maybe

[pokerfan]

this passive c/c turn line will lose more but win less IMO. There are two flush draws plus two broadway cards there, bet on the turn is certainly the way to go. Its a guessing game, so villain will call with lots of hands (tptk,tpgk,QQ-KK, KcQc and AcQc) we beat and raise/shove his trips or JJ.
I think AA crushes his range here the majority of the time.

[badgers]

pokerfan please tell me what range you are putting villain on.

Then, in the same post, please explain

- How TPGK???? is in his range?
- How did you put TPTK in his range?
- HOW ON EARTH CAN YOU PUT AcQc IN HIS RANGE??!! (hint: look at our cards)
- How frequently you think he has a FD?

[pokerfan]

pokerfan please tell me what range you are putting villain on.

Then, in the same post, please explain

- How TPGK???? is in his range?
- How did you put TPTK in his range?
- HOW ON EARTH CAN YOU PUT AcQc IN HIS RANGE??!! (hint: look at our cards)
- How frequently you think he has a FD?

ok, no AcQc. He called on the button and minraised our c-bet, so his range should include ATs,8c9c,JTs,KJs,QJs,KcQc,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AJs,AhJh, JJ-KK.
bet on the turn please :P

[BankItDrew]

u forgot kt and qt and 9t and 8t

[pokerfan]

u forgot kt and qt and 9t and 8t

i dont expect this guy to call with 8T,KT or QT given 12/6 stats.

[badgers]

OK I'm sorry I thought we had raised UTG which would put a different spin on the hand...

I still think your range is waayy too wide... The player is a nit, I'd expect him to be folding KQs, def ATs, etc. etc. preflop.

I think his range is largely comprised of TT+, with sometimes underpairs turned into bluffs, but not draws very often... I think he has top pair very rarely and his range should be weighted away from that...

[pokerfan]

when i played with him in a long session last month, this guy often raised my c-bet and folded to my 3 bet blufff right on the flop. So i think his ranges are leaning towards those hands we beat that might call something on the turn. You cant just c/c on the turn and fold to his big river bet, which doesnt make any sense.

[Fnord]

You cant just c/c on the turn and fold to his big river bet, which doesnt make any sense.

Bet;Bet;Check is the line I'd expect him to take with a lot of two pair hands.

[badgers]

we could even block/ fold river i think, that would be a fun line because I don't expect this guy to bluff raise ever almost and we look a lot like a missed draw.

[Keilah]

Pokerfan you're giving him too wide a range. He could have any of those hands once in a while but most of them have to be lightly weighted.

IMO b/f the turn is better because it gives you a much wider range and makes his much smaller if he raises again. We've established you have good equity vs his calling range, and I think the only hands he's raising with again that you beat are KcQc/8c9c. He might even flat those.

As played, you've boned yourself because his entire flop range is betting again and you have no clue, but you have to call IMO.

I like block/fold river, he's calling with a ton of hands you beat and not often bluffing.