interesting turn card

[revolvingiris]

PokerStars Game #19906526020: Tournament #104390392, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/08/26 - 03:31:27 (ET)
Table '104390392 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: KaZuyaM86 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: m@k5 (1540 in chips)
Seat 3: MANOUCHE2626 (1560 in chips)
Seat 4: RISING ONE (1420 in chips)
Seat 5: revolvingIRS (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: MakeUPoor22 (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: 10goto10 (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: MFT77 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: zhev (1480 in chips)
RISING ONE: posts small blind 10
revolvingIRS: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to revolvingIRS [Ad 6c]
MakeUPoor22: folds
10goto10: calls 20
MFT77: folds
zhev: folds
KaZuyaM86: folds
m@k5: folds
MANOUCHE2626: calls 20
RISING ONE: folds
revolvingIRS: checks
*** FLOP *** [4d 4c 5d]
revolvingIRS: checks
10goto10: checks
MANOUCHE2626: checks
*** TURN *** [4d 4c 5d] [7d]
revolvingIRS: ??

[jdubs]

theres nothing in this pot, you could bet here, but I dont see the point.

[mxiu]

uh check

[hangchiong]

ill check,but if someone bet into the pot after the check,let say a little less than the size of the pot,should we still call?

nut-flash draw,open end straight draw?

[elitemob]

There you go hangchoing:

OESD = 8 outs: 1 in 5.875 to make your straight on the river,
example:s
pot sized bet: 50, to win 150 (50 currently in the pot, 50 from opp, 50 from your call) 3:1 -> fold
close to pot: 40 to win 130 (50 currently in the pot, 40 from opp, 40 from your call) 3.25:1 -> fold
minbet: 20, to win 90 (50 currently in the pot, 20 from opp, 20 from your call) 4.5:1 -> fold

Just to prove the point: pot odds tell you the exact same thing, there's nothing to win in the pot (as said above), so you shouldn't call ANY bet here!

[taipan168]

Seems like a check on the turn to me. If we had an OESFD on the flop I would play it more aggressively but with only one street rather than two to make our hand I try for a free card here. That said, I don't mind betting 60 or so but it would suck to get raised off your hand.

OESD = 8 outs: 1 in 5.875 to make your straight on the river,
example:s
pot sized bet: 50, to win 150 (50 currently in the pot, 50 from opp, 50 from your call) 3:1 -> fold
close to pot: 40 to win 130 (50 currently in the pot, 40 from opp, 40 from your call) 3.25:1 -> fold
minbet: 20, to win 90 (50 currently in the pot, 20 from opp, 20 from your call) 4.5:1 -> fold

Just to prove the point: pot odds tell you the exact same thing, there's nothing to win in the pot (as said above), so you shouldn't call ANY bet here!

Couple of things:
- You misread the board - he has an OESFD since he has the Ad.
- You aren't taking implied odds into account - if he hits his hand, he may well win much more than just the pot if opp loses a lot of chips with a hand that Hero beats.

[elitemob]

Sorry about that, you're right of course.

8 outs from OESD
9 outs from the flush draw - 2 already counted in the straight outs = 7
-> 15 outs = 1 in 3.13 on the river of making either straight or flush

rest stays the same:
pot sized bet: 50, to win 150 (50 currently in the pot, 50 from opp, 50 from your call) 3:1 -> fold
close to pot: 40 to win 130 (50 currently in the pot, 40 from opp, 40 from your call) 3.25:1 -> call
minbet: 20, to win 90 (50 currently in the pot, 20 from opp, 20 from your call) 4.5:1 -> call

As you pointed out, this is just the plain old pot odds calculation and you'd have to think about implied odds as well.

Sorry again

[taipan168]

ill check,but if someone bet into the pot after the check,let say a little less than the size of the pot,should we still call?

If we check and somebody bets, I'm tempted to put in a decent sized raise if they aren't total calling stations. Part of the value of a hand like this is the fold equity we can gain by check-raising - but it does depend on them folding to the raise a good portion of the time.

The problem with check-raising is that if opp shoves over, we are in a difficult spot and most probably have to fold.

[hangchiong]

a bit of a leak in my game.
i will be afraid of the check/raise thing,and villain shoves into me
most of the time.i usually check/call with some sorts of a flush draw,and straight draw.given a very good oods,but most of the time i check/fold.

[Stacks]

There you go hangchoing:

OESD = 8 outs: 1 in 5.875 to make your straight on the river,
example:s
pot sized bet: 50, to win 150 (50 currently in the pot, 50 from opp, 50 from your call) 3:1 -> fold
close to pot: 40 to win 130 (50 currently in the pot, 40 from opp, 40 from your call) 3.25:1 -> fold
minbet: 20, to win 90 (50 currently in the pot, 20 from opp, 20 from your call) 4.5:1 -> fold

Just to prove the point: pot odds tell you the exact same thing, there's nothing to win in the pot (as said above), so you shouldn't call ANY bet here!

There is 70 in the pot currently I believe. And with his OESFD he has 15 outs (9 diamonds, 3 threes, 3 eights). With 15 outs he has I believe 33% equity. Therefore he would need 2:1 odds. So he could call even up to a Pot Sized Bet, which gives an immediate 2:1 pot odds (70 in the pot, villian bets 70, so 140 in the pot and 70 to call [140/70 = 2]). However, because of implied odds, he could call even more. However, one thing to note is the draws are poorly hidden. If the three or eight comes, I doubt any villian will call anything without the pot being chopped, or you losing the pot to 69,68. And if the diamond comes I wouldn't think the villian would call more than like a 1/2PSB or so with any diamond less than the Q,K. So your implied odds aren't that great.

I'd think a check is clearly the best decision, and don't expect to make anymore money on the river if you hit. Reason I don't like a bet is because your draw is so visible and your implied odds so bad, if you bet here and are raises you won't have the correct "pot odds" to call, and you can't rely on your implied odds to make up for it.

[allLiving]

Betting just over half the pot to see where I'm at, and semi-bluff here.

[oskar]

Betting just over half the pot to see where I'm at, and semi-bluff here.

I think this is pretty bad. Half pot size in this spot looks very suspicious. You might get raised with air, it looks like a half-assed steal. What real hand would you bet 1/2 PSB here?
I c/c about a pot sized bet here.

[allLiving]

Betting just over half the pot to see where I'm at, and semi-bluff here.

I think this is pretty bad. Half pot size in this spot looks very suspicious. You might get raised with air, it looks like a half-assed steal. What real hand would you bet 1/2 PSB here?
I c/c about a pot sized bet here.

No, it isn't bad. The reason it's not bad is because betting just over 1/2 pot here looks like a value bet for the trips. Trips would play it like this, so it's nice to represent trips here. With a 70chip pot, what other kind of bet do you think would actually have a "real hand" as you described.

You c/c a POT-SIZED bet?? You're calling against the odds here, that's hilarious that you'd say that. This would be a technically incorrect call, as you probably don't have implied odds against this person because if the diamond comes on the river, or the straight card comes, MOST likely they are slowing down.

Therefor your implied odds = SHIT, and you just called a pot sized bet against the odds. Congrats, you hit your hand AND you're not getting paid. Bad move.

SURE, we COULD get raised by AIR, and I could also get hit by a bus if I go walk on the sidewalk. That doesn't mean I shouldn't walk on the sidewalk does it? You need to bet to see where you're at, if you get re-raised, based on the size of their re-raise and the style of the opponent, you may decide to fold. Otherwise you may have odds to call to see a river for the nutflush or straight.

Not betting here is extremely passive. You need to bet the turn here.

[mxiu]

mis-read the board, didn't see the flush draw.

70 chips in the pot, still an easy check.

[Stacks]

You c/c a POT-SIZED bet?? You're calling against the odds here, that's hilarious that you'd say that. This would be a technically incorrect call, as you probably don't have implied odds against this person because if the diamond comes on the river, or the straight card comes, MOST likely they are slowing down.

You must not have read my post. A PSB gives you 2:1 odds. With 15 outs (not including your Ace which could be a clean out as well) and one card to come you are about 33% to hit, and in this case win because unless they have 68,69 you will win. So while you have little, to no implied odds, you are being given correct immediate pot odds to make this call. If they bet anything up to a PSB you can profitably call imo. If they bet 1/2 pot you are getting 3:1 so easy call. If they bet Pot you get 2:1, so it's a breakeven call;however, I think that you can get a very small amoutn put in on the river should you hit, which would make it profitable (I'm thinking a minbet or so).

Also do you really check through on this flop with trips? I don't think so, and if you do then you are setting youself up to be outdrawn. So you checking through on the flop, then betting on the turn because this is "what trips would do", isn't telling a consistent story, and will probably be picked off a fair amount.

And you say "betting here is extremely passive", but their are times when passive play is the best play. I really think a bet is not neccessary here. You will get blown off by better hands that will raise the turn, and sometimes by air that bluffs. So you would be putting in unnessary money.

This isn't going to be a big pot scenario. If you hit your draw after checking the turn, you are likely to not get much more money in (barring they have the straight or Khigh flush). So don't expect to feel the need to "build the pot" for later streets, because on the river you aren't going to get many worse hands to call any bet.

[mxiu]

The board is already paired, and there are 3 diamonds on board already... so let's say we make a straight on the river, how much are we willing to pay a turned flush or a boat?

Aren't the reverse implied odds in this hand terrible?

[drmcboy]

yeah I'm with mxiu

If we bet and get called, we either have to check call or risk losing a now much bigger pot on the river since we can't bet/fold after we make our hand on the river, but we'll almost always be behind a river raise.

If we bet turn and get raised, we have to fold because we have no idea what we're trying to hit. Bet/calling turn is easily the worst line.

If we bet turn, get called and hit a flush we don't win much from any hand besides Qh/Kh flushes. If we make a straight there isn't really any hand to pay us off.

I'd rather bet the turn with nothing so at least we'd know what to do from there.

Unless there is a lot of bluffing going on at the table I also don't see any value in c/c two streets.

[allLiving]

Can someone point out the OESFD? (Open-Ended-Straight-Flush-Draw)?

[Warpe]

Dealt to revolvingIRS [Ad 6c]
*** TURN *** [4d 4c 5d] [7d]

OESD + FD = OESFD

[Stacks]

Can someone point out the OESFD? (Open-Ended-Straight-Flush-Draw)?

So we can't make a striaght flush, but we have the nut flush draw, and an OESD, so it's still pretty damn good. And as said, we may have the best hand already with Ace high, or in addition to our 15 outs to the straight/flush, we may have 3 more for our Aces.

[revolvingiris]

As the gods had it. Everyone checked on the turn and I missed so I was easily able to fold to a river bet.

However, I usually lead out on the flop with the FD but I didn't like the pair out there on a semi bluff. I suppose the turn should have played the same way? I hate having a massively potential hand and am unable to capitalize on it.