thin call 3 bet pot 400nl

[meeloche]

Villain is a regular i've played a decent amout with at 100nl, 200nl and now 400nl. I have caught him doubling air in a 3 bet pot before. This is the first time i've played with him at 400nl and he probably knows I just moved up and could view me as scared money I guess. He probably thinks i'm spewy preflop from 200nl and below I don't know if he thinks I carried that up to 400.

He runs 26/20/3.5 and has a high turn and river cbet%

Pokerstars 400nl:

Hero (Button) ($619.20)
SB ($438.50)
BB ($753.60)
UTG ($459.00)
MP ($746.70)
CO ($440.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, 10
2 folds, CO raises to $16.00, Hero raises to $48.00, 2 folds, CO calls $32.00

Flop: ($102.00) 8, 10, K (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($102.00) K (2 players)
CO bets $74.00, Hero calls $74.00

River: ($250.00) 7 (2 players)
CO bets $214.00, Hero?

What do you think about calling this river?

[meeloche]

I don't know why he's raising 4x pre his standard was 3x and 2.5x on the button at 200nl.

[ATOTHEC101]

he puts you on jj,qq or a 2nd pair type hand, in your experience with him, if he puts you on that does he expect you to fold to major agression? id fold the river.

[meeloche]

Oh I forgot to add:

His timing was semi quick. Quicker timing on the river than on the turn.

[griffey24]

Does he generally 4-bet hands like JJ/QQ/AK etc or call them OOP?

Your line definitely looks like JJ-QQ pretty often, and I'm not sure if he'd try to get you off those hands here.

This really depends on what level you think he's on, and whether he thinks you'd fold JJ-QQ here or not I'd imagine.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

the board texture seems very favorable for a call to begin with (top pair card paired, QJ/XXcc missed). thin calls versus regulars are good to make for metagame too so i'd call.

[Marshall28]

he can have a king or 88 and you can't. i'd rely on what i thought of his bet sizing on the river. do you think he'd make it this big in order to bluff or thinking he could get value? does he think you call too light? if you've made lay downs to him in the past this might be a spot to look him up, if he really wanted a call i would generally think the sizing would be quite a bit smaller.

[Fnord]

QTo is such a terrible hand to do this with.

[meeloche]

He has always 4 bet AK and QQ in the past and I don't have any history of being a station vs him.

I thought his range was pretty small on the river, either KQ maybe KJ, AA or some kind of air. I don't think he plays JJ or QQ if he has it this way cause he really didn't even think about betting or c/c I also found his bet sizing quite bizarre.

Any additions to this range?

[mixchange]

QTo is such a terrible hand to do this with.

I agree, especially keeping in mind who you're tangling with. I'd much rather do this to a random donk who is going to c/f a lot of flops when he misses top pair or a set.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I fold, a couple of straight draws hit and this isn't a board i find people bluffing the river that much on: he expects you to have a hand like this (actually, he expects QQ and JJ more probably), and i doubt he thinks you're gonna fold it.

[Fnord]

The problem with QTo is that when it does have showdown value, it's going to showdown second best a fair % of the time and will almost never flop a draw you can shove back at someone.

Suited connectors, Suited Aces, QQ+ and AK are my range here for very good reasons. Against some folks I'll add JJ, TT, AQ, etc.

[nutsinho]

i would call this like 20% of the time for metagame sake. your standard should be to fold here though since ur hand essentially looks like what it is: a pretty decent showdownable but not nut hand.

[meeloche]

Alright results time:

The reasons above where what made me decide to call cause his timing and bet sizing really made me think he wanted to make me fold my face up hand.

He had A5s.

I wasn't sure that I made a correct call vs his range though.

Thanks.