How is KK and AA even +EV?

[AFchung]

I'm in a little bit of a downswing right now (2NL learning the game), and most if it is coming from KK and AA. I'm not thinking too clearly about these two specific hands so I figured i'll ask it on here

When I get KK and AA, i raise 4x+1 and usually get a caller or two. Flop comes, i often throw in a Cbet, and thats all. I scoop in a mini pot

Other times, I cbet the flop and get raised/shoved at. I get stacked by hands like 67s, 10J, PP turned into sets, 2 pair, etc. I can usually get away on wet flops, but on dry flops vs sets/2pair I get stacked.

With the exception from maniacs who go crazy with draws or TPTK, how is KK and AA even profitable? You win a lot of small pots, and then lose a huge pot and/or your entire stack.

[Stacks]

Uhhh.. Not sure how to explain it, but trust me they are. AA, QQ, KK are the top 3 hands in terms of profit respectively. I have won $900+ with AA having it 383 times. $586 with QQ over 404 times and $535 with KK over 386 times. So whatever they do, it's right. Fwiw, AKo, JJ, and AKs are my next 3.

[wellrounded08]

I know EXACTLY where your comming from. 2nl seems so pointless sometimes, grind up a BI and then it's taken away with a bad beat...
Here's what I do with AA KK QQ(yes Q's in 2nl. when i'm playing the loose players you see so often. NEVER against multi-tablers or tight players.)
I 1)preflop try to stack off 2) postflop look for a villain TPTK and attack 3) call down small wanna-be value bets when a passive asshat catches his damn 47off BS hand. and 4) most importantly, Bail when I know i'm beat. this is the hardest one...

Anyway, you been here longer than me, you know this stuff, i'm kinda just talking to hear myself right now...

PS: Not to mention(again YOU KNOW THIS, I"m just a talker right now.) +EV is LONG RUN, so hard to see short term sometimes apparently(I'm just barely figuring this out as we speak.)

[jyms]

Software like this makes it easier. Now I know I play QJ0 better than QQ. Just goes to show that even 92K hands is short term.

[AFchung]

taking a look at my PT3 graphs, i do have a significantly huge positive return on AA and KK so that does make me feel better.

[Deanglow]

taking a look at my PT3 graphs, i do have a significantly huge positive return on AA and KK so that does make me feel better.

hold on, what?

[bjsaust]

Heres a thought to ponder.

AA is at least 80% v's any other hand pre-flop.

How does it fair v's villains range to go all in on any particular flop?

People seem to overlook the fact that AA's equity decreases street by street.

[Vrax]

In 6k hands stretch, my Aces were the biggest loser in my database, KK was marginal winner, only AKo was huge winner. Variance.

50%+ of your total profits will come from Aces and Kings longterm.

Learn to ship it in good on flop when you fail to improve, try to manipulate SPR to have two potsized bets behind, look for stack sizes and villain's "retard factor". Then pick a line that gets max money when you ahead.

"Aces/Kings win lot of small pots and medium pots, some of the big pots and huge pots and once in a blue moon lose a medium/big pot."

[daven]

last 150k hands (i.e. July and August and a little bit of June - basically since i moved up to 100nl)
AA 702 times, win 92%, w$wsd 81.53, and it's earned me $10.63/hand.
I like aces.
also, cos you may find this interesting. My hand profits over that reasonable sample - in order:
AA
KK
QQ
AK0
AKs (better rate/hand than AKo, but less frequent)
JJ
99
TT
88
AJo
33
77
55

22, 66, 44 are all losing over the sample - I blame playing too hard from EP and liking low sets too much heavily multi-way...

contrast with my biggest loser, T5o which has on average lost me $0.24 each of the 1400 times i got it.

[spoonitnow]

Suppose some poker hand is +EV, we'll call that hand X. Since X is a worse starting hand than AA, AA must also be +EV. DOUCY?

[AdamThePirate]

How is AA and KK +EV?

Simple, it's not. You should always fold these hands, if you do so, you are guaranteed not to lose any money on them.

[LuckySlevin]

i often throw in a Cbet, and thats all. I scoop in a mini

I think this could be partly where you're going wrong. I don't think you should be 'automatically' Cbetting these. I think it should depend very much on the texture of the flop and the people you're playing - unless there's an Ace on the board, or a draw for a flush/straight - I think a better play would be to trap (check raise) or raise on fourth street. Obviously depending on who you're playing but against aggressive players this will no doubt help you build a bigger pot.

Phil Gordons final table poker treats these quite well I'd reccomend it.

Also I wouldn't let the suck outs phase you. If you're playing the hand right, it's just variance and will sort itself over time.

[a500lbgorilla]

you also need to be able to fold KK and AA post flop when you're beat.

if you're not winning with these hands, you're either on a hyper-downswing or not playing well.

[redpalo]

Hi AF,

I'm also learning and have gone through recently how to play AA and KK right in my own experience. I've definitely made these hands turn more EV for myself so I think I have something constructive to add here... even though I'm somewhat of a noob (but the vets might correct me so look for that, they overrrule me of course!)

I have found that the best way to play these is to figure out what kind of raise is required to make all but premium hands fold pre-flop so I really know where I stand on the flop.

For example, I play mostly SNGs.

At the beginning of a SNG when the blinds are 30-60 or so and there are a lot of fishy people there, I bet 15x bb (or more) when I get AA or KK. If everyone folds, I'm happy I didn't have to deal with any suckouts.

Before the flop, if someone reraises me I try to get them all in and most of the time I'm looking at QQ or JJ or AK or some idiot donk who thought I was bluffing ... In all these cases I am favorite. Only rarely AA if I have KK and well thats just the way it goes if that's the case.. If someone calls, I can reasonably put them on a good hand and then can go forward based on what the flop looks like without worrying too much about low suited connectors etc.

As the blinds get higher, I don't need such a large bet for these hands, gradually I work my way down to 5x the BB as the blinds get higher.

After the flop if I have KK and an ace comes on the flop, I back off after taking a stab at it. Because if someone called my huge raise they probably have an A. If they have something like QQ and didn't hit their set they are hopefully going to check through with me also.

So in your case with 2NL, I would watch the table. I definitely think 4x the BB sounds way too small in this environment, confirmed by your saying that people will call with crap like 87.

Observe hat type of bet are others making that are causing the whole table to fold at this table. That is about the size bet I would use with AA and KK. Maybe all in is what is required at 2NL to make everyone but idiots and premium hands to fold - if it is then thats what I would do. If you get all your chips in before the flop with AA and KK against only one or 2 callers, from everything I read this is a good thing This should keep you above water not loosing on AA KK, even though a lot of times you won't collect a huge pot, it keeps you in the positive for the times when you do get someone to play back with you and you usually win.

Like in my SNG when blinds get higher, as you move up levels and people play better and value their stacks more, you shouldn't need such a high raise, I would imagine (as others have mentioned above).

It's nice to look at AA and KK in your hand and think you want to sorta slow-play it, make it look like all your other premium hands, but I have learned to love taking down blinds a lot with these hands, and cashing in HUGELY less often, when I DO get someone to play back at me with a big pre-flop raise.

I hope this helps you get more value from your AA and KK Good luck to you.

When I get KK and AA, i raise 4x+1 and usually get a caller or two. Flop comes, i often throw in a Cbet, and thats all. I scoop in a mini pot

That's fine. It's better to win a small pot than lose a big pot by giving opponents free and.or inexpensive turn & river cards.

Other times, I cbet the flop and get raised/shoved at. I get stacked by hands like 67s, 10J, PP turned into sets, 2 pair, etc. I can usually get away on wet flops, but on dry flops vs sets/2pair I get stacked.

Pay attention to how your opponents are playing and put them on a range. Against a maniac opponent, I'm happy to call a shove with AA/KK because he's probably shoving with top pair or maybe even a pure bluff. But you still have to be careful. If someone limped-called, and then re-raised your c-bet all-in on a ragged flop, your AA/KK is probably no good. They could've hit a set or 2-pair, both of which trounce your high pair. A good rule to go by is if you're not sure, just muck it and move on. Don't get married to big pairs because after the flop, most times all you have is just that - a pair. Sometimes it's good, sometimes it isn't.

[redpalo]

I wanted to add one more thought to my reply.

As I get more confident at being able to lay these hands down when I'm beat, and as I'm getting better at really watching my opponents and being able to put them on ranges, I am lowering my opening bet amount.

So, my post is from a beginners perspective, or someone who is having some issues post flop. A strat like this should protect you from suckouts and from yourself (lol), so you can observe and think about these hands and you gain confidence and skillz in playing them, without loosing too much money. I'd sugget lower your bet gradually as start to feel more comfy with your ability to not loose on them.

After I thought about my post I wanted to just specify that it might not be anything very advanced, but that I was taking your situation into account and that this is the beginner's forum

[spoonitnow]

How is AA and KK +EV?

Simple, it's not. You should always fold these hands, if you do so, you are guaranteed not to lose any money on them.

Actually you'd lose with them over time since you'll post blinds with them. Just a thought

[AdamThePirate]

Damn it, I knew my pre-flop strategy was wrong somewhere. Thanks!

[LuckySlevin]

At the beginning of a SNG when the blinds are 30-60 or so and there are a lot of fishy people there, I bet 15x bb (or more) when I get AA or KK. If everyone folds, I'm happy I didn't have to deal with any suckouts.

Hmm as you know I'm also a beginner - we seem to be in a spiraling staircase of disclaimers here.. but I would definately play that differently. I don't see the point in merely getting 90 chips from your AA or KK. You want dominated hands to be in the pot with you at least to the flop - because that is how you make money. I would raise standard 3/4 bb then if someone else raises, raise over the top of them. Then at the flop you read the board and if no A or no str8 draws / flush draws, fire again. I don't really see what the point is in taking a mere 90 chips from the pot when you could easily be taking more with these hands.

Also once you've done this 15bb raise if some maniac does call you have no idea where you stand post flop, they could have hit a set of they cold just feel pot commited as they will now be looking at about 2/3 of their stack in the middle of the table. I think this would be an example of gaining the least when you have the best hand, and losing the most when you don't!

Just my thoughts =)

[AFchung]

what hands do villains typically have when they pay us off? is it TPTK?

[redpalo]

Good conversation and good exercise in my thinking too

If we don't improve, TPTK is all that will pay us off, right?

I guess I feel like, if that's how it's gonna be I'd rather be all in with 1 other apponent than look at a board hinting to flushes, straights, get scared, maybe lay down the best hand, or maybe call while I'm no longer favorite after the flop.

There was a phase in my learning where I treated KK as any other pocket pair lol. (this is just history not advice). I'd try to make a set with them. That was after I felt sort of the way you did in the original post. After being pretty tilty I used Evenlyn Ng's big bet strategy for a couple days which helped me get back on track... I had been trying too many different things I'd been learning about, playing too many hands, trying to be sneaky, and it would get me in trouble after the flop. I needed to remind myself that betting bigger makes opponents make mistakes, and protects me from trying to be too sneaky or making super tough decisions when I'm looking at something very pretty in my hand against a scarey board that didn't hit it.

My current AA KK strategy comes from that. I see AA KK, I think sort of like, hey, my hand is sooo good, I'm gonna charge my first CBET right now, because I might not get it after the flop. My hand is so good, you better not try to hit something and make a payday off me, I won't let you. I figure now, why do people limp in with Axs, suited connectors, etc... the whole reason is to hope that someone else has pretty pocket cards they can't get off of... and it will pay them off. So when you have those pretty pocket cards, you need to protect them, the only way to do that is to charge those guys a price to try to hit a monster draw, flush, or straight on the flop with thier mediocre hole cards.

[AFchung]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($1.73)
CO ($2.53)
Button ($4.97)
SB ($4.46)
BB ($3)
UTG ($5.94)
Hero ($3.85)
MP1 ($1.86)
MP2 ($3.14)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K, K.
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.08, 4 folds.

Flop: ($0.19) Q, Q, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.19, MP3 raises to $0.4, Hero calls $0.21.

Turn: ($0.99) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.2, Hero calls $0.20.

River: ($1.39) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.2, Hero calls $0.20.

Final Pot: $1.79

Results in white below:
Hero has Kc Kd (two pair, kings and queens).
MP3 has Jh Qh (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: MP3 wins $1.79.

[redpalo]

Hmmm... Why would he have reraised so high?
a. Has a 4 (shouldn't have called with a 4)
b. Has a Q (you're beat atm)
c. Has AA (you're beat atm)
d. Bluffing.

So without a read on him, we should have folded, at least on the turn, when he didn't back off. Not saying I would have, but I know I should!

[LuckySlevin]

The re-raise on the flop is practically shouting he has a monster - definately folding here even if you make it as far as the turn you have to put him on either an Ace or Queen, both of which have your two pair beat beat !

[JKDS]

utg $2.21.
VILLAIN $12.08.
Utg3 $3.66 (sitting out).
Mp1 $5.
Mp2 $15.11.
Mp3 $2.50.
CO $2 (sitting out).
Button $10.82.
HERO $9.55.
BB $2.

HERO :Ac: :As:

Pre-flop:

1 fold. VILLAIN raises to $.35. 4 folds HERO re-raises to $1.15. 1 fold. VILLAIN calls.

Flop

HERO bets $2.40. VILLAIN raises to $9.60. HERO calls and is all in

Turn

River

Showdown:

VILLAIN shows 8c 8d.
VILLAIN has 8c 8d 3s 3h 7d: two pair, eights and threes.
HERO shows Ac As.
HERO has Ac As 3s 3h 7d: two pair, aces and threes.



MP2 $4.65.
CO $4.63 (sitting out).
Button $5.15.
SB $5.
BB $37.65.
UTG $72.28.
UTG2 $27.
HERO $44.13.

just3fold posts the small blind of $.10.
Addemon posts the big blind of $.25.

HERO: :Kh: :Kc:

Pre-flop:

1 fold. VILLAIN calls. HERO
raises to $1.10. 4 folds VILLAIN calls.


Flop

VILLAIN checks. HERO bets $2.55. VILLAIN raises to $10.20. HERO re-raises to $33.15. VILLAIN calls and is all-in

Turn :Js:

River :Ad:

Showdown:

HERO shows Kh Kc.
HERO has Kh Kc 2d 2s Ad: two pair, kings and deuces.
VILLAIN shows Ts 9d
VILLAIN has 9d 9h 2d 2s Ad: two pair, nines and deuces.

ez game

[Jack Sawyer]

its all about what you are playing.

are you playing against live ones? vbet top pair and overpairs to death.

are you playing against weak-tighties? bruff em shitless, fold everything that isnt the nuts when they wake up.

poker to you, in 2 sentences.

[Jack Sawyer]

Oh, also KK and AA are -EV most def

openfold dat shit, start playing more 72o and 83s

[Stacks]

Redpalo: Your advice is off the mark here. You don't want to be raising super huge so you don't get any action. You want action with your premium hands, as they are the odds on favorite to win (as shown by the picture above). Yes, you will lose sometime, but every starting hand loses sometime. Why would you feel more inclined to raise AA to 15x so you don't get many players in the pot, but raise 88 or JJ to only 5x the bb or whatever so it's cheaper?? AA is less vulnerable than 88, yet you are making it almost impossible to get paid with it, but letting players stick around when you have a weaker hand.

Now don't get me wrong and think that I am suggesting you raise 88 to 15xbb or whatever and only raise AA to 2xbb. That's not the case. Your preflop raising size should be constant at almost every instance. In cash games it's generally suggested to raise any hand you think deserves a raise to 4x the big blind and add one more big blind for every limper there is (4xbb + 1bb per limper). That way players can't get any read on you and your monster hands will merge with your marginal hands so a play postflop can be less exploitable.

In a SNG It's suggested to raise around 4xbb + 1bb per limper in the early stages of the SNG and as the blinds get past say 50/100 to begin raising somewhere like 2.5xbb + 1bb per limper (reason being a 250 raise is gonna do about the same as a 3xbb raise, but save you chips). Also keep in mind in SNGs you are also fighting against the blinds, not just the players. So you want to accumulate chips when you have the chance, and there is no better opportunity to get those chips than with AA/KK preflop. So it would serve you bet not to push out all the competition by overbetting preflop.

Next you said that if you have KK and the flop comes with an Ace you back off after taking a stab. Well this has been covered in many topics on this forum, but really quickly... Let's say you have KK preflop and raise and you get 1 call. The flop comes A73r. What hands do you beat? Well you beat all but Ax, 77, 33. So if you bet what hands does he fold? Well he isn't folding 77 or 33 for sure. And he's most likely not folding any Ax that he called preflop with. So he is only folding hands that you beat. And you don't want that. So if you turn that previous statement around, he is only calling with hands that beat you (unless he calls with QQ etc, but that's probably unlikely at the micros because they hate scare cards). So instead of betting check and call a bet, because he may bluff with something you beat, but he won't call a bet unless your beat (usually).

And for what it's worth, people calling with crap like 87 isn't bad. For one if the effective stack (the least of either your stack or villians stack) is deep enough even if they know you have AA they can profitably call with 87s, and other hands you would refer to as crap. Mainly because they intend to get paid big when they hit and you can't get away from the hand. And secondly from our prespective we are till an 77%+ favorite against a hand like 87s preflop, so we aren't hurting at all. Now given you are less likely to win a huge pot when they call with 87s becaue either they hit the flop big or not, however as rilla said you need to be able to get away when your beat postflop.

[Da GOAT]

im drunk so eh wot?

[Stacks]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($1.73)
CO ($2.53)
Button ($4.97)
SB ($4.46)
BB ($3)
UTG ($5.94)
Hero ($3.85)
MP1 ($1.86)
MP2 ($3.14)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K, K.
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.08, 4 folds.

Flop: ($0.19) Q, Q, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.19, MP3 raises to $0.4, Hero calls $0.21.

Turn: ($0.99) A (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.2, Hero calls $0.20.

River: ($1.39) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.2, Hero calls $0.20.

Final Pot: $1.79

Results in white below:
Hero has Kc Kd (two pair, kings and queens).
MP3 has Jh Qh (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: MP3 wins $1.79.

I don't really see your point in posting this. You played this hand pretty well. Preflop was fine, flop was fine. Turn wasn't bad, although maybe that ws the time to get away from the hand with the Ace coming up. But this isn't really even a bad beat. It happens and you have to get used to it or you'll crumble when there is a signficant amound of money on the line.

Second, for the two that said 'Why is he raising so large on the flop?" thinking it must mean he has a monster. Well this isn't a large raise. It's a tad over a minraise I believe. And this doesn't always mean he has a monster. This is yeti theorem in practice here (Might not be applicable at this low of stakes or even really).

[redpalo]

Thank you for your analysis Not trying to argue but I have a couple observations would appreciate thoughts on...

at .01/.02 table... 0.19 is 10x BB and the re-raise was another 10x the BB to 0.40. That seems like a big raise, and a big reraise, in terms of the size of the BB... where am I wrong here. I thought a mini-bet would be like.. the size of the BB.. 0.02. I might have my definiton wrong.

I guess what I was saying is that the economics of super micro stakes 0.01/0.02 seem to be different, similar to what I have found the first few times around a low BI sng, where people freely call bets of 90 and 120 chips as easily as they would call 30, at least some of them will... so it's good to be on the safe side unless you have a read on everyone that they are sane.

I wasn't really suggesting 15x BB is the best number for this player, just to find the correct size that will narrow the field similarly to a 4xbb bet in a higher limit game. Depends on the table, etc. I tend to use that same amount for all bets also, as you said, so not to send any signals of hand strength.

If 10x the BB reraise is not so much... then what would have been wrong with 10xbb before the flop?

I guess what I'm saying is depending on the table, how tight or loose it is, my experience is, you often need a bit higher bet sizes at super low limits or with crazy people to accomplish the same thing as 4xbb at higher limits. How much higher ---- well that depends!

[Stacks]

The thing you seem to be confusing is preflop and postflop play here. Preflop a bet/raise is considered in terms of bbs. As stated in cash a standard raise size is 4xbb + 1bb per limper preflop. However, postflop you shouldn't think of bets/raises in terms of bbs anymore. instead you should begin thinking of them in relation to the size of the current pot. On the flop in the KK hand the pot was $0.19c. Therefore, our hero put out a pot-sized bet (PSB). A standard amount to bet would be anywhere from 1/2 - full pot (50%-100% of the pot). Then the villian raised. It's a minraise because when someone bets you can't raise less than than 2x what they bet. That is to say if I bet $10 on a flop you have to raise to at least $20. So our hero bet $0.19c (PSB) and was raised to $0.40 or $0.21c more which is just a small $0.02c more than a minraise.

To go along with standard betting amounts a proper raise from the villian here would be somewhere along the lines of 3-4x the amount of the original bet of $0.19c, which is anywhere from $0.57c to $0.76c. But of course you don't have to raise the exact amounts.

So preflop we raise in terms of bbs. And postflop we raise in relation to the pot. So an example would be in a $1/$2 blind game. I open UTG to $8. It folds around to the BU and he calls and everyone else folds. The flop comes (pot of $19 due to my $8, BUs $8, SBs $1, and BBs $2), and I bet 2/3 pot, which is around $13 and he raises to $36 or so. Just a quick pointless example. Hope it helps a little though.

[Stacks]

And I want to state your thinking isn't totally off. Big premium pairs play better in HU pots, so you do want to bet enough to limit the field. You don't want AA in a 5 way pot. However, the 4xbb + 1bb etc is a good way to limit the field without over committing your stack, and still getting value from other hands such as AQ, AJ, KQ, small pocket pairs, suited connectors etc. You make them pay a good bit to play, and your fine with it because you know you are ahead going into the flop.

But your thinking of betting enough to get the job done is correct. If the table is incredibly aggressive and you see alot of people are calling raises 4xbb to see the flop, but 5xbb or so is limiting the field then go with the 5xbb. It just doesn't need to be excessive and you don't want to raise because you want "idiots" or "bad hands" out of the pot. You want them to come along, just not too many of them.

And do you understand what I was saying about the KK on the Axx board?? If not I can try to dig up a link or two for you to explain.

[redpalo]

Yes I did get what you said about KK and oddly, I read this article late this afternoon http://www.pokerpages.com/articles/a...s/hilger13.htm which is an awesome explaination too. Thanks tons, today I really got my brains around a good point that will make me money