OESD but my fold equity sucks

[Silly String]

Villain is 39/15 and I have only sat with him for about 3-4 orbits. The only big hand he has shown down was a battle of big PPs where he doubled up w/ KK. He doesn't seem to be raising light that I can tell.

I don't think I have much if any FE on the flop, so is the best plan just to call the minraise and fold to a big turn bet or call a small turn bet?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($100.15)
SB ($125.55)
BB ($106.50)
UTG ($197.25)
MP ($165.50)
CO ($15.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K.
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, UTG calls $4, CO folds.

Flop: ($12.50) T, 8, J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $9, UTG raises to $22, Hero calls $13.

Turn: ($56.50) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $30, Hero ???

[dalecooper]

I think that's exactly right. Call if you have odds, let it go otherwise. No fold equity means there's really no other way to play it. (I don't see a minraise though - did you not mean that literally?)

[ATOTHEC101]

I think that's exactly right. Call if you have odds, let it go otherwise. No fold equity means there's really no other way to play it. (I don't see a minraise though - did you not mean that literally?)

he means on the flop, where villain ALMOST minraises him, but bet just that little bit more.

[Silly String]

Yeah, thanks AtotheC. Does anyone disagree with my assessment on having zero to little FE on this board vs. this type of player despite my rather limited read?

[Chopper]

why would he minraise if you have FE? that, alone, should tell you something, imo.

sure, its either something trying to encourage you to overplay your hand...or a draw. but, how can you tell without specific reads?

just take your odds and call it. to me, thats the dumbest thing about the minraise...it lays hella odds. you may even call this turn with implied odds because you likely stack his set when you hit your straight, as that is clearly a valuebet. (i didnt check his stack size before i said this, tho) i dont think your overs are clean, though.

ewwww, he's deep. me likey the turn call now. hopefully, he's another one of those POW guys...lol.

[Muzzard]

you may even call this turn with implied odds because you likely stack his set when you hit your straight, as that is clearly a valuebet. (i didnt check his stack size before i said this, tho) i dont think your overs are clean, though.

ewwww, he's deep. me likey the turn call now. hopefully, he's another one of those POW guys...lol.

You have to fold the turn as you don't have the correct implied odds to call the bet. The EV if you call is going to be negative, I assume if you do hit you will take the rest of his stack, I also assume that neither Q or K outs is good. Remeber he is like 200bb deep but we are only 100bb deep.

You have around 20% (slight less, but well call it 20% for mathematical ease) of hitting which is about 4:1 and we only have 43 left in our stack if we call turn bet.
-30x4=-120
30+43=73
-120+73=-47
-47/5= -9.4

EV=-9.4, quite clearly a fold.

[Silly String]

I think you forgot the dead money, Muzzard. The implied odds make this +EV IF you can get villain to pay you off 100% of the time.
-30x4=-120
56+30+43=129
-120+129=9
9/5= 1.8

That is a big IF.

[Muzzard]

I think you forgot the dead money, Muzzard. The implied odds make this +EV IF you can get villain to pay you off 100% of the time.
-30x4=-120
56+30+43=129
-120+129=9
9/5= 1.8

That is a big IF.

I stand corrected!

[Fnord]

I think a turn fold is correct. I probably call out of spite. Heck, I might just go all-in on the flop, you might even have the best of it. So many cards that might help you but you can't know with money behind.

[Deanglow]

Turn fold is OK. you're implied were taken away quite a bit with that turn.