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Implied Odds

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  1. #1

    Default Implied Odds

    I want all the information anyone can give me to help me understand implied odds and using them

    Correct me if I'm wrong, my understanding of implied odds is the ratio of opponents chips/money you have the potential of winning if you hit your hand to bet size. If an opp bets $100 into a $150 with 1200 left behind: your pot odds are 2.5:1 and your implied odds would be 12:1? Am i correct so far? Now i've seen this in a lot of posts if implied odds warrant a call. What should I be looking for to see if implied odds warrant a call? Is there a general rule in terms of implied odds in set hunting, 2 overs, sc's?
  2. #2
    animal_chin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Implied Odds

    Quote Originally Posted by Ification
    I want all the information anyone can give me to help me understand implied odds and using them

    Correct me if I'm wrong, my understanding of implied odds is the ratio of opponents chips/money you have the potential of winning if you hit your hand to bet size. If an opp bets $100 into a $150 with 1200 left behind: your pot odds are 2.5:1 and your implied odds would be 12:1? Am i correct so far? Now i've seen this in a lot of posts if implied odds warrant a call. What should I be looking for to see if implied odds warrant a call? Is there a general rule in terms of implied odds in set hunting, 2 overs, sc's?
    I believe it isn't necessarily the amount of money in your opponents stack, it's how much of their stack you think they are going to call if you make your hand. This makes it much more of a judgment than pot odds which are straight mathematics.

    Here is any example. Lets say you are 25% (3:1 underdog)to win the hand with only the river to come. The pot is $120 and you opponent bets $100. How much does your opponent need to call on the river if you make your hand?

    Well the pot odds your opponent has given you are 2.2:1. You will fold on the river if you do not make your draw, thus you won't loose any more money. Your implied odds need to be at least 3:1 to make the call. So you must be able to win a $80 on the river to give you the implied odds you need to break even ($80 + $120 + $100 to your $100 give you 3:1 implied odds).

    **I think this is how it works, somebody please tell me if I am wrong, as I am still learning this stuff also**
  3. #3
    I'm with animal_chin here, with a few extra comments.

    Note that in his example he found that you would need to win $80 on the river (if you hit your hand and think you are winning - you can fold if you miss) for the call on the turn to be correct. This needs not be taken too literally - what it means is that you need to win $80 on a later street on average to justify the call. As the opponent will doubtless check and fold some of the time to your bets, the actual bets you put in will need to be higher than $80 for the average called bet to be $80.

    When trying to determine if you can expect to win $80 on the river it is beneficial to consider as many factors as possible:
    What size will the pot be on the river (and how large a fraction of that is the $80 that you need the villain to call) - if the size of bet you need to be profitable is above half pot size on the river it's probably not profitable to call the turn - a few folds will greatly reduce the size of the average called bet.
    What type of opponent are you playing against? Is he a calling station who wants to see if he won and will almost always call a smallish bet on the river? Is he the type of calling station who will pay to see all the cards to the river, but only call a river bet if he thinks he's winning? Is he an aggressive bluffing player who will bet into you on the river even if he's behind?

    You need to put all those factors into your head and come up with a realistic and conservative number for how much money you think you can extract from this villain on a later street, given what you think he is holding and how much money he's willing to put in if scare cards come, your cards come etc etc. That number is what's providing you implied odds - and it can of course never exceed the size of the opponents stack size. Checking the opponent stack size is a first stop reality check - does he even have enough money to offer me sufficient implied odds - if not, don't bother. If he does - start considering if he's likely to put in enough money for it to be profitable for you to continue in a hand.

    In the above (and in animal_cihn's post) we've only really thought making your hand and winning the showdown - it is also sometimes (in some situations and against certain villains) profitable to play for fold equity through bluffing. For instance your opponent may have shown beyond all doubt that he has KK which he's pushing hard while there is no A on the flop or turn, and you know that in addition to the cards that make your hand, if an A should come on the river and you bet big the villain will think you've made a pair of aces and fold every time. This means that cards that don't make your hand are still outs for you to win the pot - but this is an entirely different type of subject.

    Also there is this: Is the opponent a passive player that will check the hand down on the river even if you don't improve, meaning that any small/middling pair stand to win the pot unimproved maybe 1 out of 10 times? It all adds.

    When trying to win money - or decide what your implied odds in a situation is - it is very important to know your customers.

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