50nl, Wierd JJ hand vs. nits... Bet or check flop?

[badgers]

Opps are - MP2 - 18/2/0.4/150, MP3 12/4/1/180, and Button 13/6/1.6/120....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

MP3 ($53.45)
CO ($114.45)
Button ($48.25)
Hero ($71.05)
BB ($50)
UTG ($64.40)
UTG+1 ($53.50)
MP1 ($9.25)
MP2 ($28.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $3, MP3 calls $3, Button calls $3.

Flop: ($15) , , (4 players)
Hero.....

[XTR1000]

WA/WB, c/c one or two streets

[martindcx1e]

WA/WB, c/c one or two streets

worse pp's may float no? even so c/c is prob better really.

[XTR1000]

WA/WB, c/c one or two streets

worse pp's may float no?

Ya, they´re passive, but I doubt they´ll float with 4 to the flop

[Fnord]

WA/WB

Ummm.... no we're not.

[swiggidy]

check, prob fold

[martindcx1e]

WA/WB

Ummm.... no we're not.

what am i missing?

[XTR1000]

WA/WB

Ummm.... no we're not.

what am i missing?

[ultros8]

Part of the reason for checking in spots like this is to induce a bluff, right? I can't really see these nits taking a stab with an underpair in a 4-way pot, so I'd rather bet out and get called by TT-77. Probably c/f turn if called on the grounds that if they bet it's hardly ever going to be a bluff. If turn checks through maybe bet again on a blank river.

@ above posts: The only hand that we're not either way ahead or way behind to is AQ, and that doesn't seem very likely, right?

[Fnord]

A-Q are scare cards on the turn, plus our opponent's range is very pair heavy so you're looking at lots of hidden 2 outers we want to fold out with a small flop bet. Being out of position is bad and makes us play poker if called, but I think checking the flop makes us hate life even more.

[XTR1000]

I agree with A-Q being scare cards we dont want to see falling, but this

you're looking at lots of hidden 2 outers we want to fold out with a small flop bet.

makes no sense at all. If u said bet into those 2outers for value cuz they´ll stick around anyway as martin said, fine. Betting with the intention of folding out hands that are far behind is a statement less experienced players might get wrong.

[martindcx1e]

after more thought i think i like b/f the best. if called, try to showdown cheap i guess.

[BankItDrew]

I'm only afraid of 6 cards in the deck. There are four cards that make our hand golden.

AQ hits turn 12% of the time, this is still WA/WB.

I like to bet $5 each street.

[Fnord]

makes no sense at all. If u said bet into those 2outers for value cuz they´ll stick around anyway as martin said, fine. Betting with the intention of folding out hands that are far behind is a statement less experienced players might get wrong.

I would agree heads-up or in an unraised pot. In a raised pot multi-way with a hand strong enough to call at least one big bet, giving two or three pocket pairs a free card isn't a cheap mistake nor one we are likely to make-up by inducing bluffs.

[XTR1000]

makes no sense at all. If u said bet into those 2outers for value cuz they´ll stick around anyway as martin said, fine. Betting with the intention of folding out hands that are far behind is a statement less experienced players might get wrong.

I would agree heads-up or in an unraised pot. In a raised pot multi-way with a hand strong enough to call at least one big bet, giving two or three pocket pairs a free card isn't a cheap mistake nor one we are likely to make-up by inducing bluffs.

It´s awesome how two Fnord-lines make realize what a shallow thinker I am.

I suppose we have come across a pretty important concept, that many or at least I, knew somewhat subconsciously but I haven´t seen wrote down yet anywhere.

martindcx1e and I didn´t get why this actually isn´t a WA/WB. It´s not, b/c in situations like this we dont have to base our decision on each single opponents range, but on the aggregation of our whole oppositions range. In this case its not that either villian X or we are drawing to 2 outs. Given their most likely range of pp´s we´re facing a 6 out opposition, throw in some A´s and Q´s and we´re forced to bet to protect our hand vs something like 10-12 outs.

Mad props Fnord, you´re amazing

[daven]

bet $10.