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Ouch, AK is in extremely aggressive spot

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  1. #1

    Default Ouch, AK is in extremely aggressive spot

    villain is 13.8/7.1/5.o over 94 hands. In these 3 bet pots, especially button/ small/big blind confrontation, whats your thought process when this guy reraised me and commited himself ? what should i do?? Obvious fold or mans up shove?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Hero ($103.40)
    UTG ($104.75)
    UTG+1 ($49)
    MP1 ($177.90)
    MP2 ($178.15)
    CO ($29.20)
    Button ($106.30)
    SB ($100.50)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K.
    5 folds, Button raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $14, Button calls $10.

    Flop: ($28.50) 4, 2, 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $22, Button raises to $60, [color=#CC3333]Hero ?
  2. #2
    Board: 2c 3s 4d
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 33.434% 31.30% 02.13% 111564 7596.00 { AKo }
    Hand 1: 66.566% 64.43% 02.13% 229644 7596.00 { 99+ }

    Pot is 110 & you've committed 36 already...I think this is fairly close to neutral EV either way? If you have even a wee bit of FE (unlikely?), or think you can safely throw some non-paired hands in villain's range then I guess it's a shove?

    *shrug*

    *waits for the 100NL regs to rip into this donknalysis*
  3. #3
    dozer made good point i'd like to hear any other thoughts
  4. #4
    What do your stats look like to him? Any 3 betting history?

    I would fold this in the games I'm playing in at NL50.

    Betting 16-18 on the flop probably accomplishes everything we want and leaves us with an exit strategy. Of course a lot easier to say after the fact.
  5. #5
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    Dozers analysis is pretty good.

    If he´s a random unknown I just fold and go on, if he´s regular I may shove over for metagame and curiosity
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
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  6. #6
    in the heat moment, i figured i had some OK equity against his range(99+, AJs+) plus good pot odds and his flop aggression looked prretty weird. As played, i shoved over his 3 bet.
    Flop: ($28.50) 4, 2, 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $22, Button raises to $60, Hero raises to $89.4, Button calls $29.40.

    Turn: ($207.30) T (2 players)

    River: ($207.30) 2 (2 players)

    Final Pot: $207.30
    he had :Ac: :Qc:
  7. #7
    nicely played. i wud have chickened out. Lemme crakc at the maths u'd hit. Count all the outs? Lets count his 6 outs as 4. so 8 outs. turn- 8:39 ie 1:4.5, river-8:38 ie 1:4.5ish
    So about 1:2 by the river?

    pot odds: 64:200 ie 1:3.5ish

    So push FTW with FE?
    That maths remotely correct if my assumptions about the outs were right?

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