QQ unknown

[Numbr2intheWorld]

villain is 25/25 over 8 hands. I don't know if he's a reg or not cause i'm on my new comp. He probably is.

I'll discuss what i think his ranges are later.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($213)
Hero ($197.35)
BB ($200)
UTG ($190.75)
MP ($199)
CO ($227)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q.
1 fold, MP raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, MP calls $18.

Flop: ($50) T, T, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $34, MP calls $34.

Turn: ($118) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($118) T (2 players)
Hero checks

[Irisheyes]

I think you're losing a ton of value from 88/99/JJ weird which might call to split.

If you check you have to fold if he bets I think.

[Marshall28]

what sucks about this spot is like, if u value bet, u can only get a call from like 88 99 or JJ, but they aren't going to call much more than a half pot bet, or even smaller maybe. but if u make like such a blocker looking type bet, an astute opponent is going to recognize that and raise you. so its like ... if you make a normal sized 3/4 value bet on the river, then u get shoved on ... u r getting to the point where u r committed to calling. this is just a crappy spot in general.

u have 58 invested, 140 behind, maybe bet 55 and fold to a jam, i dunno, this is a really sick spot depending on opponent cuz you're out of position.

[will641]

I think you're losing a ton of value from 88/99/JJ weird which might call to split.

If you check you have to fold if he bets I think.

arent all of these hands better than the board?

i think a c/c is best here imo. i agree with marshall that you arent going to get a lot of value from 88/99. JJ would call like 1/2 pot bet.

also, does anyone put big clubs (AcJc+) in villains range?

[Marshall28]

the more i think about it, the more this is a game flow type decision, but u said u have zero history and u and villain know absolutely nothing about each other. that's what makes it a tough spot, but i think if u have to go off of no history, it means that he won't be able to interpret your half pot bet as an overpr rather than a full house and won't be able to raise you w/out the goods, so based on that thinking i like the half pot bet for value a little more than check/calling since he's gonna check behind an ace a lot of the time and a hand like 99 most likely .. both of which u might be able to get value from.

[Genitruc]

with zero history I always go all in

i dunno maybe that s terrible... it just looks so bluffy... also you d be value-bluffing cuz your range looks like it includes lots of AKs and either quads or AA/KK

[Marshall28]

with zero history I always go all in

i dunno maybe that s terrible... it just looks so bluffy... also you d be value-bluffing cuz your range looks like it includes lots of AKs and either quads or AA/KK

i wish i thought of this : )

[Genitruc]

god a bet that s smaller than pot looks soooooo strong

[Marshall28]

genitrue .... genius.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

you're mp and you have 66-22... what is your river action?

[nutsinho]

i like the check. i dont know how good he is but i would valuebet with anything that improved the board 100% in his spot on the river and even throw in a fake value bet sometimes with air, whereas i think any bet by you looks very very strong. I dont know why people think an overbet is a good play but only a retard would think your range is polarized to like quads/air/AA when u do this. and if hes playing 25/25 he probably isnt a retard.

[IowaSkinsFan]

This is one of the most interesting hands on FTR posted in awhile I'll comment later.

[IowaSkinsFan]

This is just the absolute perfect situation to understand the concept of range girth and putting frequencys to all hands in his range.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Okay so here's my analysis.

1. I really don't like the threebet size and I think its definetely an issue that should be brought up. He's going to be calling much tighter and your building a pot with a weak range OOP.
,
My first thought when I looked at this hand was vbet. Now I'm reconsidering. I considered both value calling range girth and raise/call range we lose. AA/KK are two hands im expecting that if we get called and lose this will be his hand, but it can also be AT, 77, but that's extremely unlikely. His value calling range is JJ, 88, 99. Now that's 3 hands versus 2, those are his [b]range girths[b], and assuming each hand is just as likely as the other (all are pp's so yes, I think it goes suited hands, pp's than unsuited hands as least to most likely), than this is an +EV value bet.

But there is some other things we need to consider. Is check/calling better? Well there's also the chance he has 66-22 and bluffs, or some random hand and bluffs. And there are only 2 hands that would bet and we would be losing AA/KK, + but also an unlikely AT or quad 77. 66-22 on the other hand is 5 hands, + there could be other ones.

The issues here are hand frequency. AA/KK we cant bet sure wont raise the flop, so thats a little less likely. 66-22 may not call preflop or on the flop, and may even not bluff, so that's even more unlikely. He's also unlikely to have any hand he would want to bluff. So there I think c/c would be a little -EV.

But we incorporate this concept into vbetting, we still are pretty convinced to vbet. JJ, 99,88 all seem to be very likely, moe likely than AA/KK, as we can reasonably expect flop calls sometimes from these hands or a fourbet preflop. Yet, if we get bluff raised randomly sometimes, AND most of all JJ-88 aren't always calling, in fact they probably aren't calling a majority of the time, besides JJ. In conclusion though, this seems slightly +EV to b/f.

If it was just on the -EV side though, we would have 2 -EV decisions. So in that scenario we would rather take the 0 EV option, c/f.

I thought this was interesting because the river range off opp was so wide.

[Marshall28]

i dunno, i still like the idea of making it look like we had something like 66-22 and jamming to try to get called by A high or 88-JJ. oh well if he calls aces or kings, its good for metagame. oh well if he folds, that's good for metagame too, as u continue to jam on people they will suspect u more and more and start to call down lighter.

[Irisheyes]

I think you're losing a ton of value from 88/99/JJ weird which might call to split.

If you check you have to fold if he bets I think.

arent all of these hands better than the board?
?

I ment to write I think you're losing a ton of value from 88/99/JJ and possibly weird floats or whatever that might call to split.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

i'm guessing villain bets JJ here too most of the time, and probably is going to bet bigger than we will.

[Toadstool]

This is a situation where reads make such a huge difference, if you check again he will probably put you on AK, it's really unlikely that he has you beat with a T or 77, so the question here is would he flat AA/KK pre? we cant really answer that with only 8 hands to go by.

However my first thought was a river C/R....if we bet and he has AA/KK then he is almost always raising us and we have a decision - whatever we decide to do we have lost the river bet which is going to be fairly substantial. He may also call with 88-JJ although if he is calling with JJ then he should be calling with anything because what are we value betting that JJ beats but 23 doesn't only 88/99 and that is such a small portion of our range and it is unlikely we will play that way, but it's unlikely he is thinking like this.

If we check I think it's likely he will probably bet anything that beats the board as he probably thinks we have AK....He may also bet to try and get us off a split pot if he cant beat the board with two clubs. Ok so he bets...now what? It's correct to call IMO due to the % of his range he may bet that we are beating compared to the % he will have us beat with.

But is raising better than calling? I have a feeling we will get looked up light as this looks like a bluffy line

[gabe]

marshall all your advice is backwards

a shove on the river looks more like AA trying to get value out of everything than 22 that got counterfeited. jamming is not how we get value from 88-jj.

i think you should just make a medium sized value bet the river instead of getting tricky with it

[Deanglow]

marshall all your advice is backwards

a shove on the river looks more like AA trying to get value out of everything than 22 that got counterfeited. jamming is not how we get value from 88-jj.

i think you should just make a medium sized value bet the river instead of getting tricky with it

I agree with this. I think a lot of you are thinking way too deep into this hand. He checks back a lot worse hands and I think we should value bet our QQ.