Playing very well lately...help!

[Hawk]

For anyone who didn't catch it or remember it, this is where I was at a week ago. The short version of this ranting post is that I'd been through my worst tilting downswing I've had yet. I was pretty steamed even when I made the post the next day.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...28.html#618828

I'm going to start by saying I wish I never made that post. I'm the sort of person who can normally just let things slide off my back, but I was obviously pretty damn tilted about that day...even after sleeping on it.

Since then, I walked away for a couple days to let my mind clear. On New Year's eve I had a really fun home game going with some friends (including one friend in the Army back for the holidays from the middle east, that was great!) and it kind of helped me get past the tilt and back to having fun with poker.

After waking up on the 1st, I sat down and wrote down some goals. These were more clearly thought out than what I mentioned in my rant:
1) Keep having fun.
2) Don't take a single hand off, focus on each hand I'm involved in, and as many as possible that I'm not.
3) Stop playing hands I know I shouldn't, and raise more often with the ones I should.
4) Play 2nl until I get to $150 and, if I feel like I'm playing well, buy in to 5nl w/ $6 and take a shot with only that $6 (no reloads). If I lose that, take one shot for every $30 I make at 2nl, again only if I feel on top of my game.
5) Trying not to put much pressure on me, be playing 5nl, properly rolled, by the end of the month.
6) Get more hands in. I averaged about 5500 hands/month for the last three months (I started in sept.). This was reinforced after reading Spoon's 1000th post/thread.
7) DON'T BE AN IDIOT!

I still feel that 20-25 buyins is not enough for me, but as long as I'm smart about the shots I take (and I'm where there isn't much difference in skill) at the next level(s), I can't hurt myself too much.

So, I started playing. And have been playing better than ever before. This actually worries me a little bit, because it almost feels like before when I've done well and I expect to find myself in trouble soon. (newbie circle, right?)

I started w/ $103. t took me about 2800 hands to make it up to my "take a shot" point. (48.69 ptBB/100...if only I could keep that up) I was playing tight, not getting into marginal situations, and making people pay out the ass to draw on me...and they did it. Now and then they caught, but I was able to shrug those off and keep going.

So I took my shot, and within the first 50 hands I was up to $15...and things only got better. So far I've played about 2250 hands at 5nl, running at about 50ptBB/100 (again, I can't keep this up...even at this level, right?)

And yes, that means I've almost played as many hands this week as I have on average per month. I used to play 1-2 tables. I've started playing 4 lately, and having a good time with it. I've only had a couple times where I had hands on all 4 at once...a good problem to have. I gotta say though, without a HUD (gametime+ right now) this wouldn't be possible for me yet.

I've also surprised myself with how well I've been focused long into a couple sessions (6+ hours). I can't say I haven't lost focus at all, but it's only been for short periods. Table changes seemed to help when I noticed it.

I'm starting to approach the point of taking similar shots at 10nl, but at the same time I'm worried that the other shoe is about to drop. I look at my stats, and as nice as they look, it's only a total of about 5k hands. I'm quite confident that the sudden extreme improvement is more than luck, but I'm not sure where the luck/skill balance is at. I know it's something that can only be answered by a much larger sample.

So, in a first for me, I've been fighting against my confidence. It feels weird because to succeed at anything you need to have confidence, yet I feel like that'll be my downfall when things DO start to go bad.

I almost feel like I'm on a positive tilt, if that makes any sense.

Now, please, put me back in my place!

[Chopper]

even keel, man.

not too high, not too low. otherwise, you will drive yourself batshit insane.

[EvIlK3Rn3L]

Very Nice Post, I Am A Total Noob So It Is Helpfull To Me... The Only Thing Id Add To It Is This.... Know When To Quit.... I Tend To Go On A Wining Streek, Then I Get Over Confident And Act Like A Total ''Jack/Ace'' ... My Main Point Being... I Normaly Only Go With Things That Are Better Than 2 Pair... But A Wining Streek Can Cause Me To Soon Start Calling With Stuff Like. 1 Pair Of Tens Or... 2 Pair Of 3 And 7 Things Id Never Ever Go With, I Start Going With Cause The Confidence Bost... So My Game Pattern When I Join A Table Is Normaly.... Go In With $1 ..... loose 20 Cents On Blinds And Seing 2 Or 3 Flops Before Folding... Then I wIn $1 Or $2 ,, I Then Even Out Before A Big Win $4 Or $5... This Is The Problematic Area... I Then Get Too Clever For My Own Good.. Call With Crap.. And Before You Know It My $8 is Down To $6... At This Point I Leave The Table.... So Basically What Im Saying It... Know When You Are Starting To Lose Again And Pull Your Horns In Dont Wait Till You Styart To Lose Before You Leave The Table... Once Again Nice Post.. Thx For Taking Time To Write It

[biondino]

I think someone posted something above but my eyes won't let me read it.

Hawk, a big deal is to remind yourself over and over again that you're running superhot right now and at some point, you're not going to. The problem with running so hot is that even running normally seems like a big disappointment, so tilt comes on that much more quickly, and actual losses seem like a catastrophe. Say to yourself that even 10ptbb/100 is a really good return, and when you do return towards the mean, don't fret about playing worse or whatever - it's just probability evening things out.

Having said that, take full advantage of the confidence you're showing and try and maintain the same high level of play. You may be on a heater but you still need a solid basic game to underpin the luck and you clearly have got one.

[Pythonic]

Hawk my boy!!! Didn't know you were an FTRer.

[Hawk]

I think someone posted something above but my eyes won't let me read it.

That's how all my posts start out before reformatting them...it's how my mind works. I could read it.

Hawk, a big deal is to remind yourself over and over again that you're running superhot right now and at some point, you're not going to. The problem with running so hot is that even running normally seems like a big disappointment, so tilt comes on that much more quickly, and actual losses seem like a catastrophe. Say to yourself that even 10ptbb/100 is a really good return, and when you do return towards the mean, don't fret about playing worse or whatever - it's just probability evening things out.

...and I know it's coming. It's just a matter of time.

I guess I should look at this as my next big test. How will I deal with it when it happens?

Over the last couple days I've realized that the issues I need to work on most aren't how to play specific hands, or how to deal with certain types of opponents (I at least know how to handle the micro-fish), but more of the non-technical, outside-the-game sorts of stuff like dealing w/ tilt, losing focus, etc. I'm wondering if I've been so focused lately specifically because I'm winning...it WILL keep you interested.

Having said that, take full advantage of the confidence you're showing and try and maintain the same high level of play. You may be on a heater but you still need a solid basic game to underpin the luck and you clearly have got one.

woo hoo!! Thanks for the vote of confidence.

Hawk my boy!!! Didn't know you were an FTRer.

lol! I just can't get away from you can I? Nice to see you here.

[Pythonic]

How you doing today? You up? I'm at work right now and will back on there tonight.

[Robb]

even keel, man.

not too high, not too low. otherwise, you will drive yourself batshit insane.

Yeah, but enjoy the heater, too, as biondino pointed out. They don't come along as often as they should. I find that the confidence a heater brings also helps me play better - like you said, more attention and focus on every hand, no worries about folding in tight spots, no worries about big bets on the river, just play. The super-confident play really helps maintain the rush of wins.

That being said, and no offense, you do seem to be rather emotional about the game, both high and low. This was me a few months back. It really helps even out the emotions when you're confident you're a winning player. That's coming soon for you, probably less than 10k hands from now and know for sure you're a microstakes winner.

Good posts - play hard - good luck at the tables.

[Hawk]

Well, the hot streak has ended...what happened?

About a week ago I took a stab at 10nl for the first time. I didn't kill the game, but was making a profit, then I had one bad day and lost about 5 buyins and had to walk away.

Afterwards I went back to 5nl to make back the money I had lost at 10nl...but I've been losing money there now too.

I haven't felt tilted at all, but things just weren't working out.

So last night, after my normal session (I've been getting around 1k hands/day in, at least that is going as I hoped), I decided to take another 1 buying shot at 10nl (I'm still rolled for it, just not comfortably).

As I was taking my seat, I told myself, "OK, no funny stuff here. Just play like you are supposed to and see what happens."

And as soon as those words crossed my mind I had a realization. Over the last week or so I had gotten away from playing my tight game that was working so well for me before and started playing back at everyone who would let me.

It caught me by surprise because I wasn't getting overconfident in my game, but instead I had lost (almost) all respect for the other players (except those who I knew were decent for this level). I was looking at any unknown player as a typical 5nl fish willing to stack off w/ middle pair.

The assumption that bigger blinds=better players, whether true or not, pointed out to me exactly what my attitude had been towards other players.

Although it wasn't based on a confidence in my own game, it had the same result...staying in hands I shouldn't be, putting everyone on weak hands that just finally playing back at me, and trying to outplay everyone postflop w/ any hand.

I ended up losing that 1 buyin (flopped pair of K's w/ KJ, my cbet was called, was ready to give up as I had put villain on K w/ better kicker, but turn was a J, the other guy had flopped a set and waited till the turn to get aggressive), but I think that in the big scheme of things, sitting down at a table I knew I shouldn't have been playing at made me take a closer look at how I was playing, and may be a good thing.

I also think that, after about 2.5k hands, moving from 5nl to 10nl will be more of an adjustment than I was expecting. I didn't think it would play much different than 5nl, but I'm beginning to think this may be the first point that starts to resemble something like decent poker (I know most are still bad, but not bad in the way I'm used to beating)

Much of my profit before had come from identifying who the biggest fish were (who'd stack off w/ anything) and taking all their money w/ TP or better. Although I know there are these kinds of fish at 10nl (I've seen a couple), there aren't quite as many and it's time to start working on how to handle the marginal spots I'd been avoiding. I need to be able to make a profit without having one (or more) of these blatant targets at the table.

All in all, I've had a bad week in terms of winrate, but mentally I feel like I've taken another step forward (even if it only makes up for a previous step back).

So tonight, when I get home from work, I'll be back at 5nl playing what should be straightforward as-close-as-I-can-get-to-perfect-ABC poker until I get back up closer to $300.

I'll have another post or two regarding specific spots I need help on...this was just kind of meant to help me organize some bigger-picture ideas.

[Robb]

Much of my profit before had come from identifying who the biggest fish were (who'd stack off w/ anything) and taking all their money w/ TP or better. Although I know there are these kinds of fish at 10nl (I've seen a couple), there aren't quite as many and it's time to start working on how to handle the marginal spots I'd been avoiding. I need to be able to make a profit without having one (or more) of these blatant targets at the table.

I think the big difference at NL10 is that the fish will stack off with TP or better, and only rarely with complete garbage.

[biondino]

It's still okay to avoid the most marginal situations, especially vs raises. Most raises need to be believed, and only when a player is playing maniacally (or even abusing the button too much, say) should you play back at him - and even then it's okay to fold.