How do I fix this leak?

[jyms]

Since Sunday

[grnydrowave2]

Play more hands? I'm guessing that's a 4k-5k hand sample. It'll even out eventually.

[spoonitnow]

Dude where did you get that, that's awesome.

[Shifubowa]

Get A Flop-A-Set-Ometer Here

My setometer is where it should be after 20k hands. It also tells you some other interesting stats. In hands that went to showdown I have had AA vs KK 8 times and won 7 and I have only had KK vs AA twice losing both.

[Chopper]

i guess, im like, stupid and stuff.

all i see is a bell curve. someone care to share what the hell this does for you? i dont even see the point of the graph.

[Shifubowa]

This is mine over the last session and is a small sample and not as many hands as Trainers graph. I have flopped more sets than expected. If the blue bit is bigger than the red bit you have hit more sets than expected when holding PPs. Over Trainers sample he could of expected to hit 24 sets but has only flopped 16. Over my entire database the graph would be more or less split 50/50.

[Chopper]

thank you.

so, what you are saying is the blue is what actually happened, and the red is what the math says should have happened.

in jym's case, he ran rather dry, and should expect to hit some sets to balance things out (mathematically speaking he should have hit around 24 sets). but, you ran hot, and may go into a dry spell.

am i following correctly?

[Da GOAT]

Are you praying optimally every night??

[Shifubowa]

so, what you are saying is the blue is what actually happened, and the red is what the math says should have happened.

in jym's case, he ran rather dry, and should expect to hit some sets to balance things out (mathematically speaking he should have hit around 24 sets). but, you ran hot, and may go into a dry spell.

am i following correctly?

That is correct. However the red is not what the math says should have happened. If blue is bigger than red you run hot, red bigger than blue is bad luck and if it is as maths says then the red and blue will be of equal size. Here is my graph of ~20k hands where it has evened out (although I am slightly luckier at flopping sets to date.

[Chopper]

gotcha, thx.

[martindcx1e]

This prog should be used after a decent sample size to get a realistic view of how one is running. If you think you are poker god, check this thing out first...you probably are just running hot. If you are on a downswing check it out to see if you are just getting hit by bad luck or mostly just playing bad.

[Silly String]

Good news Trainer, you have < 2% chance of running that bad with sets for that long. I'd like to know how many standard deviations that is, but I can't remember shit from statistics class.

[Chopper]

This prog should be used after a decent sample size to get a realistic view of how one is running. If you think you are poker god, check this thing out first...you probably are just running hot. If you are on a downswing...you prolly just suck.

FYP. j/k

[Chopper]

Good news Trainer, you have < 2% chance of running that bad with sets for that long. I'd like to know how many standard deviations that is, but I can't remember shit from statistics class.

wow. theres like a class on this stuff? wow. where do i sign up? or, do i like have to go to community college and stuff?

[Miffed22001]

70k sample.
No wonder i run bad?

[Miffed22001]

someone just tell me how much this equates to in dollars, considering its nearly all 1/2 and 2/4?

[martindcx1e]

edited by me

[grnydrowave2]

someone just tell me how much this equates to in dollars, considering its nearly all 1/2 and 2/4?

That really depends on your average profit from sets, doesn't it?

[Miffed22001]

someone just tell me how much this equates to in dollars, considering its nearly all 1/2 and 2/4?

That really depends on your average profit from sets, doesn't it?

[jyms]

Didn't we decide a long time ago, that the 15x rule was based on our average profit in sets? So I would think you can base it on the fact that calling a 4xBB raise to have 15:1 for a set would mean approx. 60BB's. Would this be reasonable? So even at 4 sets under expectation, would you not be running 240BB's under as well? This is all speculation, and if someone has other ideas, I would love to hear them.

[bode]

Didn't we decide a long time ago, that the 15x rule was based on our average profit in sets? So I would think you can base it on the fact that calling a 4xBB raise to have 15:1 for a set would mean approx. 60BB's. Would this be reasonable? So even at 4 sets under expectation, would you not be running 240BB's under as well? This is all speculation, and if someone has other ideas, I would love to hear them.

theoretically this sounds right. in reality it depends heavily on each players ability to extract said 60bbs.

[Da GOAT]

is it really worth finding out

[Clar17y]

I run hawt



Clar

[grnydrowave2]

When did the 10x rule become the 15x rule?

[jyms]

Since you need to use implied odds with NL instead of pot odds.

[bode]

When did the 10x rule become the 15x rule?

about 2 years ago

[Cocco_Bill]

WTF?!

[Miffed22001]

WTF?!

LOL COCO BILL WINS 300K A YEAR AND RUNS BAD

LOLOLOL FUCKING IRONY!!!!!!!!

[bode]

WTF?!

i wonder if this calculates only the flops you actually see with PP's, or if it counts when you fold a pp pre but would have flopped a set? that seems kind of dumb, but that might explain your graph if your getting 3-bet out of a bunch of pots preflop.

[grnydrowave2]

When did the 10x rule become the 15x rule?

about 2 years ago

Yeah... I never got that memo. So if we buy in for 50bbs we have to fold 22-99 to a standard raise?

[Cocco_Bill]

When did the 10x rule become the 15x rule?

about 2 years ago

Yeah... I never got that memo. So if we buy in for 50bbs we have to fold 22-99 to a standard raise?

all those hands(esp 77-99) have more than set value

[Cocco_Bill]

WTF?!

i wonder if this calculates only the flops you actually see with PP's, or if it counts when you fold a pp pre but would have flopped a set? that seems kind of dumb, but that might explain your graph if your getting 3-bet out of a bunch of pots preflop.

It calculates on flops seen w pocket pairs. From the download page "The first point to notice is that I was dealt a total of 1557 pocket pairs but only saw the flop 1042 times and flopped a Set 101 times. The graph on the right indicates that 101 was a relatively low figure given that we saw a flop 1042 times."

[Shifubowa]

i wonder if this calculates only the flops you actually see with PP's, or if it counts when you fold a pp pre but would have flopped a set?
that seems kind of dumb, but that might explain your graph if your getting 3-bet out of a bunch of pots preflop.

PPs where flop is not seen (either folded or uncalled raises) are not included in the calcs for the graph. It is purely worked out on flops seen with PPs versus sets flopped with those hands.

[jyms]

Make Sets Get Paid is a fallacy. They have been lying to us.






Ok so I fixed the leak, now tell me how to get paid.1200 hands tonight.

[Jack Sawyer]

Avoid oversets?


beautifully lacking is "set vs made straight/flush on flop" stats

[wufwugy]

The Flop-a-setometer as well as PokerEV DO NOT demonstrate whether or not you are running well or poorly. There is soooooo much more to luck than what the current software calculates. You can run bad on sets, KK vs AA, all-in equity, yet STILL be running ridiculously hot. I've had PokerEV graphs that said I was running waaaaay above expectation, yet I was down in money simply because I was actually getting tons of other types of ill-luck.

These software do not account for being outflopped, not hitting draws and folding, being pushed out of pots due to other player actions, what of villian's range your bluffs are against, hitting hands vs certain players, etc. Hitting hands against donkeys instead of regs is so so so much more valuable than hitting more than your share of sets or aces or what have you in non-committed pots vs non-donkeys.

[badgers]

The Flop-a-setometer as well as PokerEV DO NOT demonstrate whether or not you are running well or poorly. There is soooooo much more to luck than what the current software calculates. You can run bad on sets, KK vs AA, all-in equity, yet STILL be running ridiculously hot. I've had PokerEV graphs that said I was running waaaaay above expectation, yet I was down in money simply because I was actually getting tons of other types of ill-luck.

These software do not account for being outflopped, not hitting draws and folding, being pushed out of pots due to other player actions, what of villian's range your bluffs are against, hitting hands vs certain players, etc. Hitting hands against donkeys instead of regs is so so so much more valuable than hitting more than your share of sets or aces or what have you in non-committed pots vs non-donkeys.

Ding ding ding. Excellent post.

[looshle]

can't even decipher this graph