100NL 3-bet pot minraise flop

[minSim]

I only had about 10 hands on villain, no 3-bet history. Would you lay down AK? JJ?

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $116.85
UTG+1: $98.50
hero: $91.50
Button: $41.33
SB: $98.50
BB: $237.97

Pre-flop: (6 players) hero is CO with K A
2 folds, hero raises to $4, Button folds, SB raises to $13, BB folds, hero calls.

Flop: 2 9 5 ($27.5, 2 players)
SB bets $17, hero raises to $34

[zook]

I only had about 10 hands on villain, no 3-bet history.

Fold the flop.

[minSim]

I only had about 10 hands on villain, no 3-bet history.

Fold the flop.

I agree with this, this shouldn't be done against an unknown.
In fact it shouldn't be done against a standard player in general, until we
- know villains 3-betting range is wider than standard
- and/or villain is folding more than AK on the flop
- and/or villains flop bet is smaller compared to the pot

I did some calculations, I hope they are right.

Assuming a standard tight 3-bet range of villain of JJ+/AK.
AK is 1/3 of his range when I have AK as well (1:2)
I'm paying 34 to win 44,5 (1:1.3).
- We need 1:2 so it is very -EV when villain only folds AK.
- If villain also folds JJ he folds 55% of his range, so it's very +EV then.
- If hero doesn't have an A or K, and villain only folds AK (excluding AsKs here), he folds 37,5%, which means 1:1.67 so that's still -EV.
- If the board doesn't have a flush draw and villain folds all AK but nothing else, it's still -EV.
- If we put AQs in his range, it's still -EV.
- AQ in his range and he is folds it together with AK, it is very +EV.

Maybe the following is more interesting:
- If we have QJ, and villain folds AK, but only AK, it's +EV. (with the JJ+/AK range)
(-Though if we have only one Q or J, it is marginally -EV.)

Of course these calculations are very random because of the bet/pot ratio, villains range and our FE. It also doesn't take into account villain calling with JJ and QQ and we having outs.
But at least the QJ thing was interesting to me.

[snowbird4life]

I fold the flop. The problem is see with this, is if villain has any sort of overpair at all (1010-AA), he is likely getting it all in. This is the problem with 3betting hands like Ak/Aq, then getting a low flop imo, as villains at this level can almost never give up their overpair.

[sauce123]

a lot of ur assumptions r wrong and ur min raise makes no sense

no one folds TT, let alone JJ here ever

u also need ot take into accnt the times someone goes "hmmm wtf is this minraise i shove my AK/AQ/KQ" which is an ev disaster for you

fold flop is rly the only viable line here

[minSim]

Villain folded in the actual hand, so I was lucky there.

Though after this one I don't really get why we are calling AK in position to a 3-bet anymore, because it is winning a small pot or loosing a big pot or folding the best hand/same hand.

Would shoving the flop be a viable line here?

[sauce123]

shoving the flop is a viable line for sure, but i think its likely -ev against most players at 100nl

4betting preflop is goood also

[|~|ypermegachi]

4betting preflop is goood also

against an unknown are we priced to call a shove? roughly $40 to win $160...heh, it's pretty break even vs AA/KK/AK

[sauce123]

minsim- btw i rly like the depth of analysis u go to in all of ur hands

[IowaSkinsFan]

I fourbet pre a lot with AK because of the reasoning you give.

I think the move is bad. If it's between a minraise and a shove though you have to have a read that the player convinces himself to make big laydowns if I'd decide to do a minraise.

[sauce123]

4betting preflop is goood also

against an unknown are we priced to call a shove? roughly $40 to win $160...heh, it's pretty break even vs AA/KK/AK

4bet/folding AK is a mega-leak

[thelipkin]

I also love this thread btw

[minSim]

I did some math for 4-betting/calling shove AK both IP and OOP. Ofcourse I had to make assumptions on stacks and betsizing, so I went with:
- 3x 3-bet IP
- 4x 3-bet OOP
- 4-bet is 2,5x 3-betsize always
- Stacks 100bb.

OOP (villain is in position), play goes like:
hero raises 4, villain raises 12, hero raises 30, villain pushes 88 (66 for hero to call).
This makes 66 to win 134, odds offered are 1 : 2,03.

Now villains range comes into play.
Calling is -EV when villains range is:
AA, KK - we have 19,6 equity/1:4,09.
AA, KK, AKs - 27,46 / 1:2,64
AA, KK, QQ - 31,8 / 1:2,15

Calling is +EV against every wider range, like:
AA, KK, QQ, AKs - 34,403 / 1:1,91
AA, KK, AK - 37,85 / 1:1,64
AA, KK, QQ, AK - 39, 59 / 1:1,53
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK - 40,54 / 1:1,47

IN POSITION, play goes like:
hero raises 4, villain raises 16, hero raises 40, villain pushes 84 (56 for hero to call).
This makes 56 to win 144, odds offered are 1 : 2,57.

Calling is -EV when villains range is:
AA, KK - we have 19,6 equity/1:4,09.
AA, KK, AKs - 27,46 / 1:2,64

Calling is +EV against every wider range, like:
AA, KK, QQ - 31,8 / 1:2,15
AA, KK, QQ, AKs - 34,403 / 1,91
AA, KK, AK - 37,85 / 1:1,64
AA, KK, QQ, AK - 39, 59 / 1:1,5,3
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK - 40,54 / 1:1,47


General rule of thumb is as long as AK is in villains range, it's no doubt +EV with about 100bb stacks or less.