88 overpair facing weird cbet line on drawy board.

[Pelion]

Villain is 30/8/1 after 100 or so hands. Anyone else realllllly want to call this?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($3.90)
Hero ($25.60)
BB ($30.95)
UTG ($18.10)
MP ($26.46)
CO ($27.07)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8.
UTG raises to $1, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3) 6, 7, 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.7, UTG calls $0.70, Hero raises to $3.5, BB calls $2.80, UTG calls $18.10 (All-In), Hero ???

[Ash256]

I really wanna call this but looking at it again it's much more likely that UTG has an overpair rather than a combo.

Plus your hand is kinda overrepped.

Yeah, I muck.

[bigspenda73]

I think the flop raise is poor as half of the deck turns your hand to shite on the turn.

I call, keep the pot reasonable, probably folding to turn aggressiveness.

[andy-akb]

I think the flop raise is poor as half of the deck turns your hand to shite on the turn.

But our hand is likely ahead now, so shouldnt the fact that the turn is likely going to fuck us really be an argument to raise the flop?

I call, keep the pot reasonable, probably folding to turn aggressiveness.

On most turns, wont there be aggression because of what you were saying above?


To the hand itself, I really dont think we can call that especially with the read that he is pretty passive

[bigspenda73]

[quote="andy-akb"]

I think the flop raise is poor as half of the deck turns your hand to shite on the turn.

But our hand is likely ahead now, so shouldnt the fact that the turn is likely going to fuck us really be an argument to raise the flop?

you're making the assumption that either player is going to fold to the flop raise, which they won't at these stakes, and the turn still brings shitty cards. You can close the action and control the pot. Your potentially risking your entire stack here (if you actually want to call a shove) to potentially win what's in the pot now. Risking a lot to win a little with a hand that's either WB/BA (barely ahead) doesn't seem like the right move.

Also, if I'm going to raise the flop, I make it a ma- sized raise. At least $5 to go.

[Galapogos]

I think the flop raise is poor as half of the deck turns your hand to shite on the turn.

But our hand is likely ahead now, so shouldnt the fact that the turn is likely going to fuck us really be an argument to raise the flop?

Sometimes pot control is more important than hand protection.

[SmackinYaUp]

If we truly believe our hand is ahead but the turn could easily fuck us, I would prefer to get it in now.

But that's only if we truly believed that. UTG played this hand so weird but I think one of three things happened

A. He played it passive for some reason but then when he saw there was going to be three people in the pot with one of them raising, he decided to drop the hammer with some overpair.

B. He is on a combo draw with overcards.

C. He is on a total draw.

His stats don't look like he is raising small PPs so I don't think a slowplayed set or straight is likely.

I'd probably just fold because BB is still in. If BB is on a draw that makes it less likely UTG is on the same draw. If they are both on hearts you're in good shape but its hard telling what they are going to show up with. I'm unsure so I fold. On top of all that, the combo draw is going to hit quite often.

[Da GOAT]

easy fold as played

TBH i could find a fold here where we raise as played. Calling sucks on this board vs 2 players and reverse odd type spot.

Yeah i just fold it instead of repoping. repoping gets you in sick sick spots.

fodling>leading>c/r'ing>calling

[Pelion]

Ok I called and he showed K Q which is just about the only hand I could think of that he would play like this. I was pretty sure I was ahead of the shover but im still not sure if its the right call since BB could wake up with a hand, however BB just calling my raise made me think he probably just had a reasonably weak overpair or maybe top pair type hand and would fold to an allin and a call. Im still not sure if it was the right call though but BB is the only guy im worried about. Also I checked the flop with the intention of folding, but then decided to raise because they both looked so weak.

[bigspenda73]

Problem Pel is that's going to be the best spot you're going to find yourself in, either up against 15outs or so or drawing to 2 outs yourself.

Stove a range for him weighted 50:50 for Ahxh Khxh and overpairs/sets.

[andy-akb]

I think the flop raise is poor as half of the deck turns your hand to shite on the turn.

But our hand is likely ahead now, so shouldnt the fact that the turn is likely going to fuck us really be an argument to raise the flop?

you're making the assumption that either player is going to fold to the flop raise, which they won't at these stakes, and the turn still brings shitty cards. You can close the action and control the pot.

If they call our raise with a draw, arent they making a mistake? We profit when our opponents make a mistake and should actually "hope" that they call our raise with a hand that isnt getting the proper odds. You are right though, I havent played those stakes in a long time, but the really bad players at 200nl+ make plays like this all the time and you do get folds a decent amount of the time as well and most of the time when they simply call, they are going to fold to another bet, or check down.

Your potentially risking your entire stack here (if you actually want to call a shove) to potentially win what's in the pot now. Risking a lot to win a little with a hand that's either WB/BA (barely ahead) doesn't seem like the right move.

I dont get my stack in here. When I see a player make a wead lead like this, there are only a few options for what types of hands they have. They are folding their air to the raise, most likely calling with a draw and shoving with a strong hand. If they shove, then I really doubt we are ahead near enough to call, so I would fold.

Also, if I'm going to raise the flop, I make it a ma- sized raise. At least $5 to go.

I typically dont like making a raise that large when sombody bets so small, but that may have merit.



EDIT: Just realized that we are OOP here and my analysis was thinking that we were in position on the first bettor. Since we are OOP I think the best line is definitely to lead for a PSB here and fold to much more action unless we have any specific reads [which it doesnt look like we do]. If called, Im going to bet again on most turns that dont complete the obvious draws.

[bigspenda73]

Lol, last night Pel serenaded me with a Britney Spears song in Ventrillo. It was without a doubt one of the funniest/most disturbing moments of my life.

[Pelion]

lol. i dont remember much of last night...

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think the problem is at best we are 60% to win, so we have to fold, but with better equity against his bluff range its an easy call.

[Fnord]

If it wasn't for the flush draw, I'd say this is the nuts almost always.