A Pokerstove Analysis

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

Here is my first serious attempt at an in-depth analysis of a pretty standard situation using Pokerstove.


For this example, assume 100xBB stacks and 6Max.

Lets say Hero raises preflop with Kd-10d from the CO and gets called by a villain from the Button with stats 22/17 and 3bets a reasonable amount (i.e. A-Js+, A-Qo+, 8-8+). For the sake of my example, let's say he 3bets these hands 100% of the time when in position. Villain is a decent 100NL regular. Everyone else folds and the pot is heads up.

The flop comes Kh-6d-7s. You c-bet and get raised (assume standard c-bet/reraise sizes).

My standard play usually was to call the flop and make a decision about whether to continue with my hand on the turn. Usually i would fold to a second barrell unless i had notes on my opponent recommending otherwise.

Let's see what villain's range would probably look like...
(Percentages are based off of the Pokerstove range)

6-6, 7-7 (set) (~13%)
K-Q, K-J, K-10 (TP) (~50%)
8-9s, 5-8s (OESD) (~10)
6-7s (two pair) (~7%)
6-8s, 6-9s, 7-8s, 7-9s, 7-10s (pair + draw) (~16%)
bluff (...) (~7%)

As you can see, most of villain's range contains top pair. Combo draws and OESD's make up the next biggest chunk, though two pair/sets are not far behind.


So, equity wise, how are we doing?


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

55,440 games 0.005 secs 11,088,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 6d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.687% 43.92% 05.77% 24349 3197.50 { KdTd }
Hand 1: 50.313% 44.55% 05.77% 24696 3197.50 { 77-66, KTs+, T7s, 96s+, 85s+, 76s, 32s, KTo+ }


Depending on how often you think villain is running a real bluff on this flop, we have close to 50% equity. So what's the best play?

Points to consider:

-We are out of position
-The stacks aren't shallow, so we will have another decision to make on the turn
-There are a lot of cards on the turn that villain could improve his hand with. Most likely, any card from 5 to 9 could potentially give villain two pair or a straight. Cards between 5 and 9 represent around 33% of the remaining cards in the deck, so there is close to a 20% chance a scary card can come on the turn.
- Villain could double barrell an OESD or a weak MP and we will be in a tough spot since most of his range includes top pair hands (we are never ahead of top pair with our kicker)


So, surprisingly IMO, this looks like a fold.



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

56,430 games 0.005 secs 11,286,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 6d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.547% 51.91% 05.64% 29291 3183.00 { KdJd }
Hand 1: 42.453% 36.81% 05.64% 20773 3183.00 { 77-66, KTs+, T7s, 96s+, 85s+, 76s, 32s, KTo+ }


If Hero had held Kd-Jd instead, calling on the flop with the intention of making a decision on the turn becomes a much better decision.



I don't analyze situations like this enough, but i intend to perform the same analysis for several other standard flop textures and against different opponent types. Not studying like this is probably one of my biggest poker "leaks", and probably is the same leak many low limit players like myself have.

[zook]

Nice analysis Vi-Zero. If you're usually playing TPMK for a raise out of position vs. regulars capable of following through on a bluff on the turn, that's definitely a leak. Now if you've seen him flat call with a set in this type of situation, you might consider calling and c/r'ing a blank turn once in a while.