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50NL: KK on straight board

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  1. #1
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Default 50NL: KK on straight board

    Sorry no converter for Everest:

    EverestPoker Game #1827935538: Table Berlin-6 - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:55:14 - 2007/07/20
    Seat 1: A-L-F ($26.63)
    Seat 2: jimmy44a ($49.95)
    Seat 3: Rossem ($49.50)
    Seat 6: takis4o ($53.15)
    Seat 7: dr.brutalo ($50.35)
    Seat 8: fox61 ($60.15)
    Seat 9: Archimald ($111.59)
    Seat 10: -tanuki- ($43.25)
    dr.brutalo posts the small blind of $0.25
    fox61 posts the big blind of $0.50
    The button is in seat #6
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to jimmy44a[Ks Kd]
    Archimald raises to $1.00
    -tanuki- calls $1.00
    A-L-F folds
    jimmy44a raises to $4.50
    Rossem folds
    takis4o folds
    dr.brutalo folds
    fox61 folds
    Archimald calls $3.50
    -tanuki- calls $3.50
    *** FLOP *** [8h 9d 7c]
    Archimald bets $2.00
    -tanuki- folds
    jimmy44a raises to $10.00
    Archimald raises to $22.00
    jimmy44a ???

    Tthis was my 7th hand on the table, so no reads. Would you push here? and stack off to a straight/set?
  2. #2
    No I'd push and hit runner runner quads
    This is not my signature. I just write this at the bottom of every post.
  3. #3
    jimmy44's Avatar
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    Hmm ... I suppose you mean you would fold here.
    After villains 3bet on the flop, suppose villain always calls if we push, we are getting about 65-35 in pot odds (having to invest $35 more to win a $100 pot) or 1.85-1. So it means that to push we need to have an equity of at least 35%.
    Putting some ranges in pokerstove we get a close call:

    85,140 games 0.005 secs 17,028,000 games/sec

    Board: 8h 9d 7c
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 36.442% 34.31% 02.13% 29215 1812.00 { KdKs }
    Hand 1: 63.558% 61.43% 02.13% 52301 1812.00 { 66+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }


    Adding KQ and QJ to cover some possible bluffs it's a clear call:

    108,900 games 0.005 secs 21,780,000 games/sec

    Board: 8h 9d 7c
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 47.051% 45.16% 01.90% 49174 2064.50 { KdKs }
    Hand 1: 52.949% 51.05% 01.90% 55597 2064.50 { 66+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, KQo, QJo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o }
  4. #4
    Sometimes the smallbet/reraise is weakness, sometimes strength. So I have no clue what to do here.

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