Is this play ever right?

[Knytestorme]

Villain is 54/14 over ~100 hands.

Given there is only one hand that beats me is this a better play or is check/call a reasonable bet a better play?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($8.25)
MP1 ($46.80)
MP2 ($57.20)
CO ($10.25)
Button ($31.10)
SB ($75.90)
Hero ($101.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 7.
2 folds, MP2 raises to $1.5, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($3.25) K, A, K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks.

Turn: ($3.25) A (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP2 raises to $4, Hero calls $2.

River: ($11.25) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.5, MP2 raises to $20.5, Hero calls $14.

Final Pot: $52.25

[XTR1000]

a bet gets never ever called by a worse hand here

[pgil]

a K will usually call a small bet here, so not much wrong with that.

[EzDuzIt]

a 54/14 guy will call with a K usually if you raise him all in here. Most guys like that aren't folding full houses. Theres no need to worry about KK.

[Knytestorme]

The more I think about this the more I'm inclined to believe that check/call a reasonable (~$10) bet on the river is a better play.

On the turn I have defined my hand as having an A pretty much since even if I had a K and was slowplaying trips on the flop I wouldn't now show aggression with the bottom end of the boat.

Now if we assume that even a 54/14 would realize my hand then what puts in a pot-sized raise here....I doubt an A would either would a K. That leaves two choices, KK or an A that doesn't believe me and so a call is justified.

However, going with the micro-limit adage that if someone represents the hand then they usually have it no matter how unlikely then a check to see what he does here is more in order since as was quite rightly posted above, a worse hand doesn't call here. If the pot is $11 on the river and he puts out a psb then a call is justified but I think anything more than that (at these stakes) is a justifiable fold too.

[bigspenda73]

Good god felt this.

He's a 55/x? Zeebo his ass.

[EzDuzIt]

Good god felt this.

He's a 55/x? Zeebo his ass.

yeah. hes not folding a full house here even if its the K. i dont know how you are worrying so much about KK. just get all in.

[bigspenda73]

he calls with a naked K a huge percentage of the time more than he shows up with KK

HUGE %

[Knytestorme]

I actually wasn't that concerned about KK when considering the raise on the flop (I actually said in chat if he had KK then gl to him), I was actually figuring it to be a chop the majority of the time and with the only extra money in the pot being the small blind I called rather than felt to avoid losing any more to the rake than I need to.

The times we see KK here I agree aren't worth considering but surely the time we see K vs A here with no extra in the pot make it -EV to push and just lose to the rake?

fwiw he showed KK but I have tried to keep this as low on results oriented as possible.

[EzDuzIt]

wasnt the rake basically full anyways?
and yes its worth it this guy will stack off to you with Kx here.

[bigspenda73]

Well he played it horribly