Introduction and 2nd pair hands

[minSim]

Hi there,

This is my first post at FTR, so hello to you all! I've read a few hundred posts already at the forum, and I'm a big fan of the high quality of them and in depth thoughts and replys. So I guess it was about time to start trying to be a part of it.

I'll introduce myself first. I'm Erwin Simmelink, 24 years old and live in the Netherlands. I have a full time job as a functional designer (system development, ICT).
My poker career so far isn't that special. I started playing home games about 6 months ago and quickly entered the internetrooms as well. I started at Unibet, because I had a bit of money on it for football-gambling. I quickly switched to PartyPoker once I got the hang of bonusses. I've been playing on PartyPoker, Everest, PokerStars and Empirepoker since then, mostly just changing sites for bonuswhoring.

My bankroll is about 550$ by now and I'm playing 25NL. I'm doing OK, by making about 5-10PTBB/100 at that limit and picking up bonusses. I try 4-tabling, which not always works as sometimes I have to take my time to make difficult decisions. Usually I play 1 or 2 6max tables and 2 full ring tables. I'm taking some shots at 50NL, which I don't find that much harder than 25NL, but I don't want to play to much out of my bankroll, so I'm cautious with them.

I've read 2 books by now, Poker the Real Deal by Phil Gordon as a start, followd by HOH1 and I'm going for T&P as the next.

My first question is about Second Pairs, which I hope you guys could give me..and others.. some advise on. (PS. I tried the Forum Search, but couldn't really get a clear answer).

For expample (6max, 25NL):
UTG+1 raises $1, Hero calls with 77.

Flop (pot $2):
25J r
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero?

Call?, Raise?, Fold?
I would probably raise to find out where I'm at, but maybe a call is better
and see what happens at the turn?

And what is your play at the turn if you raise? call?

What if the J is an A? Does that change things as it is more likely villain hit the flop?

And what if hero is in the BB and first to act on the flop?

I know there can be a ton of different scenario's; multiway pots, draws, reads, etc...but I feel like I need some guideline or something to hold on to in these situations.

Cheers,
Erwin

[Fortune 500]

First of all, welcome.

Second pair is a tricky proposition. I don't know that you're going to get a lot of firm advice on this. If I were you, I would post several hands where it's perplexing you and get some specific feedback.

So much depends on reads, position, the preflop action, the game situation, strength of kickers... there's so many variables with a marginal strength hand that any firm and hard guidelines are going to lead you astray. That said, someone will sweep by and give you some shortly, I imagine.

Much like most of poker, it depends. I would post as many situations as you can, and with our advice and your experience at the table, you'll get a better feel for it.

In your hand, for example, if you have a read, a fold can be right. I think a raise can be reasonable to see where you're at, and there's an argument for floating him on the flop and then aggressing the turn, if he slows down. You've got a ton of options, but they depend on your read of opp. Personally, I probably float a call here to control the pot size, and raise it on the turn if the card seems safe. Lots of options though.

[Jimmyjet]

First of all, welcome.

Second pair is a tricky proposition. I don't know that you're going to get a lot of firm advice on this. If I were you, I would post several hands where it's perplexing you and get some specific feedback.

So much depends on reads, position, the preflop action, the game situation, strength of kickers... there's so many variables with a marginal strength hand that any firm and hard guidelines are going to lead you astray. That said, someone will sweep by and give you some shortly, I imagine.

Much like most of poker, it depends. I would post as many situations as you can, and with our advice and your experience at the table, you'll get a better feel for it.

In your hand, for example, if you have a read, a fold can be right. I think a raise can be reasonable to see where you're at, and there's an argument for floating him on the flop and then aggressing the turn, if he slows down. You've got a ton of options, but they depend on your read of opp. Personally, I probably float a call here to control the pot size, and raise it on the turn if the card seems safe. Lots of options though.

I agree for the most part but..

Against a TAG I'd be firing a raise back at him, to see how serious he is. Most TAG's (me included) will fold to a reraise on their C-Bet if their AK/AQ misses.

If he's a wild maniac, it's probably best to not get involved. His range is huge, and it could include J2, 25 suited or even A3 betting his gutshot. Best to wait until you nail a real big hand against these guys.

9/10 here though, against most opponents, I'd be firing back at him, hoping he has AK/AQ and he's just C-betting.

In my opinion, a call is the worst option, as you have no real idea if he has overcards/overpair, top pair (say AJ) or nada.

[Fortune 500]

We have no evidence that opp is TAG, based on the post, as a rule. A raise is a PERFECTLY viable option, but a lot of weaker opponents will freeze up on the turn if they miss again. At that point, we take down the pot with a bet, and we can do it at a slightly cheaper price than a reraise on the flop will afford you. It has its risks, certainly, but I wouldn't say that a flat call is a horrible option.

Differences in style, perhaps.

[Jimmyjet]

We have no evidence that opp is TAG, based on the post, as a rule. A raise is a PERFECTLY viable option, but a lot of weaker opponents will freeze up on the turn if they miss again. At that point, we take down the pot with a bet, and we can do it at a slightly cheaper price than a reraise on the flop will afford you. It has its risks, certainly, but I wouldn't say that a flat call is a horrible option.

Differences in style, perhaps.

Yeah, of course buddy, wasn't saying you was wrong or I was right.

Like you said, it's difficult to put into words how to play second pair. I was just trying to simplify the answer. In my opinion, a reraise will take the pot there and then, maybe 7/10 times.

I guess I just don't like flat calling anything, unless I'm smooth calling to trap!

Yeah, diff styles mate

[minSim]

Thanks for the replies.

I'll post some hands once I have walked into some.

Let's say raising the flop and floating will both be profitable if villain doesn't have top pair (either on the flop or turn). I am wondering what the FE in both situations is.

Let's say;
UTG+1 raises $1, Hero calls with 77.

Flop (pot $2):
25A r
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero?

Let's say villain folds to a raise when he doesn't have an A.
1. Will he fold A8s+, AJ, AQ, AK?
AK and AQ probably not, maybe AJ-.

2. What would hero do on this flop when he has AJ (fold FP?) or AQ instead of 77?

3. When we float with 77 and a blank hits te turn, will the FE be any different?
He COULD be betting at us again with AJ+ and we have to fold. (especially when there was a flush draw at the flop a bet isn't that uncommon).
When he checks, is the FE any bigger than when we had raised at the flop?
I think AQ, maybe AK?

4. Let's say hero called in the BB. We're first to act at the flop. Is there any good in donk betting it with say $1.50? Or does that just say "Hey, I haven't got TP cause I would C/R you then?".
I do think vallain cannot call a donk bet with anything else but TP though, but the situation could be exploitable even for an average player.

[Fortune 500]

I'm not sure why I have such an interest in this thread, but here goes:

Let's say villain folds to a raise when he doesn't have an A.

The first thing to do is assign him a range for raising at UTG+1. I think this is a six handed game, but we’ll assume opp isn’t that creative. Would villain raise any PP here? Not likely. Most smaller pairs are limp to set from here for most players… lets say he’s going to raise 77+ (This could flex either way, given individual read) In terms of suited cards, most players are going to limp any smaller Suited cards, but are probably raising KTs +, And maybe KQo+. Let’s open up the range on Aces, and say that he’ll raise any suited ace. This is really pushing it, but at low stakes, some people think this is the nuts… So let’s say he’s raising A2s+ for the sake of math. And A9o+, should work for arguments sake. If we can be certain he’s going to hold one of these hands, we can put him on:
AA (6 ways to be dealt this hand)
KK(6)
QQ(6)
JJ(6)
TT(6)
99(6)
88(6)
77(1) – You’re already holding one combination… only leaves one other
KTs (4)
KJs(4)
KQs(4)
KQo(12)
A2s(4)
A3s(4)
A4s(4)
A5s(4)
A6s(4)
A7s(2) – Again, your hole cards are precluding this.
A8s(4)
A9s(4)
ATs(4)
AJs(4)
AQs(4)
AKs(4)
A9o(12)
ATo(12)
AJ0(12)
AQo(12)
AKo(12)

So preflop, there are a whopping 173 card combos he can have. After the flop of A25r, we can eliminate some of these hands. Let’s assign some suits to keep the math simple. Lets call it As 2d 5c. Of those 173 hands, we can now eliminate any hand that has the ace of spades. That’s 3 pairs of aces, 13 suited aces, and 15 of the offsuit ace hands. That’s 31 hands.

Let’s count the implications of the 2d. There aren’t many of them. It eliminates one A2s hand. The 5c is the same… so we can eliminate 33 total hands after the flop. Our theoretical opp has 140 hand combos. Our new breakdown looks like this:

AA (3 ways to be dealt this hand)
KK(6)
QQ(6)
JJ(6)
TT(6)
99(6)
88(6)
77(1)
KTs (4)
KJs(4)
KQs(4)
KQo(12)
A2s(2)
A3s(3)
A4s(3)
A5s(2)
A6s(3)
A7s(1) – Again, your hole cards are precluding this.
A8s(3)
A9s(3)
ATs(3)
AJs(3)
AQs(3)
AKs(3)
A9o(9)
ATo(9)
AJ0(9)
AQo(9)
AKo(9)

Let’s assume that to a checkraise, opp will fold ragged aces NOT holding a broadway card, that make two pair, or give him a gutshot draw. This will eliminate A9, A8, A7, and A6, and any hand not containing an ace (there are no non-ace sets in this opps range, and few draws.) That means if your opponent can call with A2s(2) A3(3) A4(3), A5(2)
AT s and o (12) AJs&o(12) AQs&o(12) and AKs&o(12).

That means opp is going to call 58 out of 140 times. Again, we are assuming absolutes, here… the real world isn’t so neat.

When Opp bets, there’s 3.50 in the pot. It’s going to cost you a MINIMUM of 3.00 to raise here as a min raise. Let’s assume that’s our play.

58 times, you’re going to raise and lose your 3.00 (let’s assume you’re not going to improve or fire another bullet.), a net loss of $174

82 times, you’re going to fire and win 3.50, a net gain of 287, so you’ll win, on average, a little less than .81 cents profit when you raise, if and only if the following are true:

Opps range is exactly this to raise preflop. If it’s looser, you’ll make more. If it’s tighter, you’ll make less.

Opponent is going to C-bet any flop.

Opponent can make a laydown of a weaker ace. If he can’t, your profit goes down. If he can fold an ace plus a gutshot, it goes up.


I’m in a rush now, so I’ll try to come back through and analyze floating on the flop later. I think I’ve left you with a solid groundwork for the math here.

It seems that raising can be profitable here, to some degree.

Haven't had a chance to double check my math, which I did by hand... hope it's right.

[minSim]

Great reply man! I love your analyses!

A more manly reraise, like 4,50 is a bit more common i think though, as otherwise villain will get pretty good odds.
When we do that, a reraise with 4,50 instead of 3,00...
we win the same, but lose 58x4,50 = 261

with a profit of 287, we don't make that much then..(maybe reraising that much isn't necessary on such a dry board?)

It's debatable (hope I spell that right) if villain will call with A10, AJ though....But everything is debatable...Great analyses! looking forward to the part about floating!

[Fortune 500]

For some reason, this topic has spurred a lot of thought on my part... when I started writing this, I intended to write a short analysis, but that's not going to do. I'll be back later with more analysis in a part 2.

I'm going to attempt to attempt to analyze floating the flop. Even though we had to make a lot of assumptions for flop analysis, it gets much hazier, and much less mathematical.

Just a point for thought here, before we delve into the turn play. If the above min raise can be profitable... do your cards matter? Does it make a difference that you hold 77 as opposed to pure nothing? Other than the 8 percent chance we're going to improve, our hole cards are irrelevant. We're not playing the strength of our hand... we're playing the weakness of theirs, and the strength of our position.

Now... let's assume we've floated the flop. As a side note... I don't know if this is the right play or not. I'll find out when you do. We've spent 1.50 to call, and created a pot of 5.00.

Our first problem is: What is the turn card going to be?

I'm not writing a novel here, so we're not going to analyze EVERY situation, and we can more or less throw most of the math out of the window. Now we're playing poker. We can group the cards that are going to come into a few groups.

Cards that help our hand.
Cards that don't hurt our hand (undercards), but may complete a draw
Cards that scare us slightly (overcards)
Cards that create a new draw
Cards that scare an opp who has an ace.

We also have to figure out our opponent's likely course of action. We're still dealing with your AVERAGE uncreative opponent who won't fire a second shell out of position. Let's assume that he can still bet if he thinks he's ahead, will check if he thinks he's behind, and lets throw in the quirk that he'll bet if he picks up a draw.

Cards that help our hand:
There are two... the other two sevens. This is an unsuspecting card on the board. You can raise in any situation, or slowplay the turn and raise the river. The world is your oyster, and we're going to the felt on this board.If he has AA and we're set over set... *shrug*. This is going to happen around 4 percent of the time on the turn.

Cards that don't hurt our hand much, but may complete a draw.
These are (discounting potential scare cards for opp), a 3, a 4, or a 6. Anything else is an overcard. There are technically only 3 of these cards in the deck, since we'll be counting suited cards as cards that create a new draw. Opp can really only raise here with an ace, or an ace that makes two pair, or an ace with a straight that was made. Let's assume the card is a 4d.

Opponent can't really put you on a straight draw here, given your call preflop, in most cases. Opp can only bet (if he's uncreative) with A9o+, AA, A2s+. That's 77 times he's going to bet again. Let's assume he's going to make a 3.00 bet into the 5 dollar pot. If he's missed, you can bet the same 3.00 and take it down. So now, you're investing 4.50 to win 3.50, but you can pretty much tell exactly when it's going to work. Let's assume this works 85 percent of the time, and 15 percent, opp gets tricky and either calls or reraises.

So 140 times, we've invested 1.50 to float the flop. 63 times, we can invest an additional 3.00 when he checks.. so 54 times, we're going to win 3.50 (+$189). 9 times, we're going to lose 4.50 (1.50 on flop, 3.00 on turn.) or 40.50. If he checks the turn, and we bet, we have an expectation of around $2.36.

What do we do if he bets? If we're taking this flop 140 times, and he's checking 63, he's betting 77. If we just flat fold, our loss is 115.50 when he bets.

Sorry if my logic is kind of skewed here...

54 times, we win 3.50
9 times, we lose 4.50
77 times, we lose 1.50

The net value of straight forward play here is $33, or about 0.24 per play. Probably, looking at it, it's a marginal play.

What if we raise his bet? What can we make him fold. This is a two pair/set representing play... let's assume opp can fold all Aces except AJ+, Or aces that make two Pair, or a straight. We're eliminating pretty much any value of any kind of gutshot.

He can now call with AJ, AQ, AK, AA, A2, A3, A4, and A5. This eliminates a lot of mid range hands. He can only call with 27 of the hands he can raise with. So if he bets 3.00, and we raise to 6.00... what happens?

50 times, he raises, and we reraise to 6.00. We win 3.50 + his 3.00 bet. so 50 times, we win $6.50, or a net value of 312.50.

27 times, we lose 6.50, or a loss of 175.50.

So let's assume we're going to bet and raise every time in this situation.

Now:
54 times, he checks, we bet, and win 3.50. (+189)
9 times, he checks, and we get checkraised, and lose 4.50 ( - 40.50)
50 times, he bets, we raise, win 6.50. (+312.50)
27 times, he bets, we raise, and he calls or raises, and we lose 6.50. (-175.50)

Total value of this play is 285.50, or approximately + $2.03.

Aggressing the turn in this spot has an EV of +2.03, as opposed to aggressing the flop, as opposed to +0.81for the flop.

Back later with the next type of turn card.

TO be continued.

[minSim]

You go girl!

This is getting VERY interesting!