190BB stacked KQs hand

[Halv]

Villain is 22/17/2.5. We have tangled a bit on this table and another one at which are also 200BBs deep. Mostly he's been folding to my positional aggression post flop. During the hand I let my timer run down while considering a turn raise, and his river shove was as insta as they come.

Thoughts on other streets are also very welcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($573)
MP ($1136.65)
Hero ($1693.65)
Button ($486)
SB ($759.80)
BB ($354.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, Q. SB posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, MP raises to $21, Hero raises to $72, 3 folds, MP calls $51.

Flop: ($153) 3, Q, 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $120, MP calls $120.

Turn: ($393) Q (2 players)
MP bets $200, Hero calls $200.

River: ($793) 7 (2 players)
MP bets $744.65 (All-In), Hero ...

[elipsesjeff]

I think raising the turn does make a river decision easier, but I dont know how you could fold.

[Renton]

i play this the same and call

[aislephive]

I think raising the turn does make a river decision easier, but I dont know how you could fold.

Umm, raising the turn takes basically any river play away.

Kind of a bad spot here, but you really can't fold this IMO. QJ/QT is in his range, some air hands as well or missed draws. Your hand looks a lot like AA/KK to me so I think he is good enough to take advantage of that and bluff here. It's less than a PSB and we have to be good only like 30-35% of the time IIRC to make a call profitable.

Here is a pretty solid range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,320 games 0.005 secs 264,000 games/sec

Board: Qc Qd 9s 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.591% 55.23% 11.36% 729 150.00 { 99, 33, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 33.409% 22.05% 11.36% 291 150.00 { KQs }

Add in the fact he'll be bluffing here sometimes and I think this is a definite call on the river.

[Genitruc]

sick sick spot obv

I feel cally.

Have you seen him lead the turn a lot before?

I can see him playing a big draw like this (Js10s) looking to freeze you on the turn by using the Q as a scare card.

I suppose you can convince yourself he's LOOKING to get raised by leading the turn (or he was afraid AA/KK would check through).

I'd be skeptical of this, however, since does he really think you'll call two huge bullets on turn and river when he pumps it OOP on that board w AA/KK? Wouldn't he be better off going for stack-a-donk hoping you have Qx? AQ is just a gross cooler...

I suppose that if you've never seen him really get out of line you have to give him credit for a range of Js10s (or 2 big spades), AQ, 99 and 33. You're not in great shape vs this range but if he's capable of big moves...

Only other thing I can think of is him putting you on AK and calling with 77 looking to make a big move on a later street. He reps the Q on turn. Then BAM 2 outer (vomit)...

Does he respect your play?

So tough without a deep knowledge of the villain. You have basically the 3rd nuts in a reriased pot.

More I think of it more I think it's time to go broke.

Very interesting hand.

[Alexos]

Heh, 777 would be sick!!! His hand really looks like AQ though and his turn lead is just to prevent you from drawing out I guess.

I play this the same, imo turn call is the better play, and I end up calling river.

[IowaSkinsFan]

This looks really, really bluffy.

[Rondavu]

In my mind the turn weak lead is the villain putting you on the Q or a draw, and inducing you to raise if you have the Q, while simultaneously pricing you in to call with potentially dead outs if you are actually only drawing to a hand you might feel is good if you hit it.

On the river he pushes because you either missed completely or have something to call an all in with.

[Halv]

I never saw the villain donkbet before, so the turn play scared me. It really looks like he boated up and is trying to build a big pot.

Anyway I convinced myself to make the call, the villian showed QJdd.

[IowaSkinsFan]

ship it.

[Renton]

yea this is either 77, a bluff, or a weaker made hand

nh

[sauce123]

his river shove is really bad... NH

[gabe]

whats wrong with his riv shove?

i like how he played it except i would lead for more on turn

[bigspenda73]

Does QJ shoving the river ever fold out a better hand here? Obv not.

[sauce123]

I dont think AA KK pays off here let alone a smaller pair. A 3bet this deep could mean just about anything from good players, and I think its a mistake to put him on a bigpair just because of the 3bet and play your hand accordingly.

I just dont think QJ is going to be ahead on a shove here often, maybe im crazy. I would either bet smaller on river to give villain good odds to call with a big pair hoping im on a missed draw or check/check river or check/check turn and vbet river or potentially C/R shove turn... again this is only if villain knows I can do this with draws and will pay off with a big pair- so not often.

Essentially my argument is that in a 400 BB pot I think a set with no kicker is probably behind more often than not without any history. If you have run/shown some bluffs or have been generally very aggressive than maybe villain in this hand can get enough value from QJ to take this line.

[jackvance]

Does QJ shoving the river ever fold out a better hand here? Obv not.

It's not a bluff, pretty sure he's doing this for value (not a great play imo)

[Halv]

Well, he aaaaalmost made hero throw away KQ. But look at it the opposite way; he's not going to be able to get away from QJ on this river. It seems unlikely that hero will bet with a worse hand if checked to. Hero will also probably never check behind a better hand. So a shove will have more value because hero might look him up with worse ie AA/KK and some more funky bluff catchers like JJ/TT every now and then.

[nutsinho]

this is a very easy call the way i see it; villain will lead with all kinds of hands on that turn and will think he can make u fold on the river