|
 Originally Posted by Massimo
i think you are definitely missing value not betting the turn against a 40/12.
I would feel more comfortable betting here against a more passive donk villain.
Aggro donk villain with 40/12/2 is probably more likely than most players to have actually stuck around in this hand, or be in this hand in the first place, with a 10. He is also likely to try and steal any missed draw on the river, if we check behind this turn.
I agree that we're losing value the times we're ahead. But what about the times we're behind? If we check this turn, we're probably facing a river bet of about $17 since villain doesn't think we have much. Instead we're stacking off.
The 10 is as much a scare card for us, at it is for him. So I also don't see how many worse hands are calling a second barrel turn bet, on that kind of board. (this obviously depends on how donkish he is, postflop)
If i had reads that villain is a donk POST flop, and stacks off weakly, I would bet this. Without a good postflop read, I probably check here.
|