zook's Picks: NFL Week 15

[zook]

I live in Seattle and the weather is supposed to be SHITTY tonight. It's currently pouring and they're calling for heavy winds tonight, 30-40mph with gusts over 60mph. I think this favors a close game and the under, but I'm just going to bet the big dog for now:

SF +10 vs. Sea (-110) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
SF M/L (+395) vs. Sea - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

Weekend games I like, in order of preference... NYG -5.5 vs. Phi, Dal -3.5 vs. Atl, KC +9 vs. SD and Miami +1 vs. Buf. At this point I only like the first two enough to play, but I probably won't decide until Saturday.

[ensign_lee]

zook. You'd better be serious. If there's really winds over 20+ MPH during gametime, hit the under for sure.

[zook]

Of course I'm serious:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data...port.KSEW.html

Under has already gone down from 45 to 38.5... seems so low. I mean if punts are going 10 yards, there are still going to be a lot of points scored, right?

[zook]

Alright, I'll go with lee on the under too:

SF vs. Sea UNDER 38.5 (-107) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

I hope the Niners win 7-0

[zook]

Added this from lee's card:

6-pt same game teaser (+100) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
SF +16 vs. Sea
SF vs. Sea UNDER 44.5

Lots riding on SF and the under...

[ensign_lee]

Haha. Watch the score be Seattle 41, SF 0.

Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants...

[zook]

My hot streak in the NFL has to end sometime, so I wouldn't be at all surprised. But this Seahawk team is a shadow of last year's... they shouldn't have won that Denver game last week, Hasselbeck's hand is bothering him more than he lets on, losing Hutchinson really hurt their running game, and I still don't think Alexander looks 100%. Still, they're playing the fucking Niners, so it could easily be 41-0 Hawks At least SF has a good running game though, which is going to be key tonight.

[zook]

M/L went up to +430 so I put another half-unit on it. Averaging gives me:

SF M/L (+412.5) vs. Sea - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

Weather update: Still pouring. Windy where I am, about five miles from downtown, but doesn't feel like 20+ mph. Apparently it's supposed to pick up as the night goes on. Wind warnings caused a mass early exodus of commuters from downtown, I've been watching stop-and-go traffic on I-5 for almost an hour. Haha, suckers!

[ensign_lee]

I <3 you zook. That helped after a horrible few days (life has sucked since Vince Young crapped on my team) . Even if I did almost lose the under. Thanks!

Well done on the SF Moneyline! Congrats!

[elipsesjeff]

Yeah, damn, nice hit on that ML.

[zook]

Woo-fucking-hoo!!! +7 units tonight! Can't believe all the 4th quarter scoring and it landed right on 38. Feels like winning roulette

Never thought I'd be approaching poker money in the NFL, but it's been a damn good season thus far...

YTD:
Straight wagers: 21-12
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 2-3
Same game teasers: 1-0
Totals: 1-1
+30.87 units

[elipsesjeff]

I'm going to just start following your picks every week.

[ensign_lee]

zook; you have been nothing short of amazing this year. well done.

[zook]

Thanks lee. It's always fun when you hit a stretch of positive variance

elipsesjeff, past results don't guarantee future performance Make sure you like the play too before you place it.

All I have so far:

NYG -5.5 vs. Phi (-104) - 2 units @ Pinnacle

This is my favorite play of the week. I'm a big Eagles fan and this is NOT a good team. They've been incredibly lucky to win the last two games against subpar opponents (Carolina & Washington) and haven't beaten a quality opponent since Dallas in Week 5. They have the second worst rushing defense in the NFC, facing one of the best rushing offenses. This is a rivalry game with a lot at stake, so I think the better team wins almost every time. And that's the Giants.

Also, strongly thinking about Dal -3.5 vs. Atl for tomorrow night. Dallas has the better coach and QB and will be motivated to play well in primetime after the drubbing they took at home Sunday night. Will read a little more and post again tomorrow.

[elipsesjeff]

Heh, theres a reason why i put that team in my teaser! I've also got Dal -3 FWIW. I'll keep a lookout for your sunday picks, but I'm thinking the over on the Bears might be pretty easy $$

[zook]

Glad to hear we like the same games! I rarely touch NFL totals unless I read something convincing from another capper... I just don't have a feel for them. 34 is really low, but it's literally the best defense going against the worst offense, so I'll probably stay away.

[bigspenda73]

I'll keep a lookout for your sunday picks, but I'm thinking the over on the Bears might be pretty easy $$

if it's too good to be true it probably is. How does TB score is this game?

[elipsesjeff]

Bears defense is pretty banged up right now, lots of holes that are needed to fill. It was well overlooked in Monday's win because of Grossman doing well. There is a good chance the bears will score 30 points on their own.

[zook]

I like the Cowboys to come back strong tonight.

Dal -3.5 vs. ATL (-107) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[zook]

Good start to the week: Cowboys win. Bad start to the week: sleeping through the beginning of the early games b/c I drank too much last night. Fucking west coast 10am starts.

Weren't many early games I liked, probably would have put a unit each on big favorites NE and NO. Oh well. I added a unit on the Giants and put a couple of bets on KC. It's a must-win game for the Chiefs and SD is in a letdown spot after clinching the AFC West. That gives me:

NYG -5.5 vs. Phi (-103) - 3 units @ Pinnacle
KC +9 vs. SD (-106) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle
KC M/L vs. SD (+360) - 1/2 unit @ Pinnacle

Don't see much else I like, so that's probably it.

[zook]

One more, from Fezzik and I like his reasoning.... rivalry game, Giants getting healthy on defense, looking to run the ball a lot on offense, Garcia not a great deep passer... all point to the UNDER.

Phi vs. NYG UNDER 45 (-101) - 1 unit @ Pinnacle

[ensign_lee]

Careful playing the favorite and under in teh same game. THey're anti-correlated. In order for the Giants to cover, they have to eat into your under. Make sense?

Doesn't necessarily work in reverse (dog and over), but it is definitely something not to do with a favorite and an under.

[zook]

Careful playing the favorite and under in teh same game. THey're anti-correlated. In order for the Giants to cover, they have to eat into your under. Make sense?

Definitely does, thanks. And I thought of it, but this really feels like a 24-10 type game to me

[zook]

Bah. 1-4 on the weekend, -4.5 units. Oh well, knew I couldn't keep running this good, and I'm still up 2.5 units on the week.

Really surprised my Eagles found a way to win in NY today. I gave up on them when Donovan went down and was hoping for an 0-5 end to the season and a high draft pick. Now they've won 3 in a row and are looking good for a playoff spot! WTFNFL.

YTD:
Straight wagers: 22-15
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 2-3
Same game teasers: 1-0
Totals: 1-2
+26.30 units