OESD

[Warpe]

Villain hasn't been at the table long so no reads. Not sure about the flop donk, pretty sure I have to call the raise.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $216.40
Button: $202.75
SB: $234.50
BB: $167.40

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with 5 5
Hero calls, Button raises to $9, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 6 4 7 ($29, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, Button raises to $40, SB folds, Hero ???

[benny999]

It's a big draw vs 99+ so I could see pushing being +ev, but think I'd just call without any reads. also I'd probably just check/call, unless ppl tend to fire lots of 2barell bluffs on the turn.

[Warpe]

Not sure I could/should call a PSB if I checked...

[Genitruc]

you pretty much have to call the raise after donking with your 10 outs

prob with donking into him is that you may now have 0 implied odds on turn/river if he thinks you are simply betting a piece of the board into him and he's rebluffing repping overpair.

If this is at all possible then a shove is def the most +ev line (36 ish % equity plus lots of FE).

I think the standard play though is simply check-call flop and re-evaluate turn. Hard to lose a lot of money that way, but pretty easy to play the hand "correctly" (i.e. check-fold to a second bullet and either check-call or lead river if no A/K falls)

[Warpe]

Okay, same hand in alternate universe:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $216.40
Button: $202.75
SB: $234.50
BB: $167.40

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is UTG with 5 5
Hero calls, Button raises to $9, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 6 4 7 ($29, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $25, SB folds, Hero ???[/quote]

Are we always calling here?

[benny999]

well at least without a read vs ppl who typically give up without a hand after the flop...it's not like it's definitely better than you're line though.

[Genitruc]

If villain is likely to be c-betting an "innocent" flop then you can call or raise.

The c/call line is just pretty solid. if you miss and he fires a 2nd bullet, then big deal, you've lost 25$. If you hit, you can check to him and either lead the river or do a number of things... I guess I don't see why this is such a weird situation, especially without reads.

Were you trying to take down the pot with your donk-lead? Or did you think your donk-lead would freeze an overpair?

If you were villain in this situation with a hand like 1010, then I can see the point of posting and asking for line-check/opinions etc.

Just seems like this is such a standard situation ; flop a medium strong pair+draw OOP, low flop... Without a read we are basically just talking about basic line-theory.

[Warpe]

I'm just asking for opinions on the best way to play it...donk out or c/c? I'm not convinced c/c is best. Missed overs will fold a lot here, bluffs will fold a lot here. Seems to me c/c is the most passive and cheapest way to play it, but it's also asking to get blown off your hand.

[Genitruc]

how do you get blown off your hand by check-calling?

If he's got overs he'll only improve 11% on the turn

If he's not super-aggro he'll usually check the turn behind

seems like donking into him is the easiest way to get blown off your hand if villain is aggro and capable of raising with air

[Robert]

warpe,

I hate preflop. Limping would be OK UTG or if button was a huge calling station, but you are in the CO, raise small PPs here if you like money.

[elipsesjeff]

How is this hand not a simple pot odds + implied odds problem? I don't see what a push does for us on the flop except lose a stack 2/3 of the time.

[Warpe]

warpe,

I hate preflop. Limping would be OK UTG or if button was a huge calling station, but you are in the CO, raise small PPs here if you like money.

I'm UTG

[jyms]

Aren't they the same thing 4 handed??? LOL

[Renton]

4 handed all pp's are mandatory raises. You should actually be raising at least 20-30% of hands in any position other than blinds.

[Warpe]

Aren't they the same thing 4 handed??? LOL

I need more coffee.

On this subject, since moving to the often aggressive 200nl games on FT, I've found that, if the table tends to reraise a lot, limping my small pockets makes them more playable. I hate folding when the preflop action makes it obvious that TT+/AK/AQ are out there and I guess I've been in too many raise/reraise/reraise/there-go-my-implied-odds-guess-I-gotta-fold-fuck-I-would've-hit situations. It gets expensive. By limp/calling I can stay in the pot more often. On a more passive table I'll raise 'em up as usual, but raising small pps is certainly no longer my automatic preflop play. This is a major change from my 100nl style but it seems to work.

[gabe]

I don't see what a push does for us on the flop except lose a stack 2/3 of the time.

it makes them fold some too!

[Warpe]

Turn: 3 ($109, 2 players)

[Fnord]

I like a check/call on this flop. We don't want to get blown off the pot and we can pick off a bluff even if we don't get there.

If do lead the flop, it's a pretty easy re-raise to 80 shoving on any turn card.

[Genitruc]

I like a check/call on this flop. We don't want to get blown off the pot and we can pick off a bluff even if we don't get there.

If do lead the flop, it's a pretty easy re-raise to 80 shoving on any turn card.

can you explain this lead-minraise line Fnord? Maybe it pwns, but I don't get it...

[Fnord]

can you explain this lead-minraise line Fnord? Maybe it pwns, but I don't get it...

$80 is not a fucking min-raise.

Stack sizes and balance are very important.

[Genitruc]

We lead, villain makes it 40 to go...

where do we raise to 80$ without it being a minraise?

obv this is just a misunderstanding but I'm curious. Did you mean c/r to 80?

[AHiltz]

$64 would be a minraise. $80 is not.

Remember, hero open donked $16

[Genitruc]

lol oops good point

Is this really all that diff from a min raise though? the extra 16$ will require him to call 40 into a pot of about 150. minraising would require him to call 24 into a pot of 135 ish

he's getting big odds either way (5.5ish to 1 vs 4 ish to 1)...

maybe this is a big diff but I don't think it would change the way I played the hand if I were villain. Both the minraise and the bump to 80 say PLZ CALL!!!

[Fnord]

Both the minraise and the bump to 80 say PLZ CALL!!!

Sorta of. It also says "If you call this we will be playing a $180 pot with about $130 behind."

[gabe]

i think i push the flop vs the PFR with 45s 65s 75s 35s 58s 44 55 66 77 AA

[Ash256]

But doesn't check-calling the flop go "I HAVE A DRAW AND I WANT TO SEE THE TURN CHEAPLY"?

[Fnord]

But doesn't check-calling the flop go "I HAVE A DRAW AND I WANT TO SEE THE TURN CHEAPLY"?

Depends on the range of hands you're doing that with. It could also mean "Bluff more please."

[Warpe]

i think i push the flop vs the PFR with 45s 65s 75s 35s 58s 44 55 66 77 AA

I know you want to keep your wpp down but I'd love to hear a more in-depth rationale.

[gabe]

if there is a chance that villian is raising with air and there is a chance he is raising with something that has you beat at the moment but will fold it, then you can pick up alot of money while pushing. its also for balance because you don't want opponents to think that it takes a set to push over a raise. ill make an EV post calc after i figure it out.

if in general the games are loose/passive then this is a bad advice.

[gabe]

C= percentage he calls
F = percentage he folds = 100% - C

when he folds, you win the $85 in the pot. when he calls you win the pot 39% of the time (assuming he has AA) and lose the $153 that he still has behind the other 61%. So EV of pushing is:

EV= 85F + (.39(238) - .61(153))C
= 85F -.9C

so if you push and he calls everytime you are making a 90 cent mistake, so if he folds 5% of the time its +EV. thats not much of an edge and check calling is probably more EV. if i chose to bet out it would be because i thought villian would raise then fold a wide range in the first place, which i think is true for me usually.

[Genitruc]

nh gabe

[gabe]

might be the first time ive ever written an EV calculation on the boards! i feel like sklansky

[Warpe]

I really appreciate the input, gabe. TYVM

For the results oriented: The turn gave me the straight, I shoved, he called w/AA.

[gabe]

yea, your line is better against that type of player anyway

[koolmoe]

EV= 85F + (.39(238) - .61(153))C
= 85F -.9C

What follows might seem nitpicky, and you surely know it, but I think it needs to be said for those that may not realize it.

Just showing that pushing might be +EV isn't enough. You've basically shown that EV(push) > EV(fold) for most opponents, but you also need to show that EV(push) > EV(call).

Unfortunately that requires far more information than we had in the original post.

[gabe]

EV= 85F + (.39(238) - .61(153))C
= 85F -.9C

What follows might seem nitpicky, and you surely know it, but I think it needs to be said for those that may not realize it.

Just showing that pushing might be +EV isn't enough. You've basically shown that EV(push) > EV(fold) for most opponents, but you also need to show that EV(push) > EV(call).

Unfortunately that requires far more information than we had in the original post.

yea i tried to explain that in the paragraph after the numbers.