mehh....sexy or FPS?

[nutsinho]

Bodog 2/4 NL
5 players (though it is a FR table which has just started to break up)
Villain is unremarkable regular. I don't have a ton of reads here. He probably views me as very tagg but capable of making plays. Lately I've been 3 betting light from the blinds very very often.
Eff. Stack size is 400 maybe 410-415
Preflop: Folds to Villain who makes it 14 to go from the CO. I make it 40 to go in the BB with Ah9h. He calls

Flop: Jh Th 3h. I bet 45 into 82. He calls.

I am putting him on : KK-QQ, AxKh or AxQh. MAYBE a flopped flush with KQ, I doubt it. MAYBE a set but I doubt that he's not raising it here.

Turn: 8c. I check, intending to go all in if he bets. He checks.

River: 9d I check, intending to go all in WHEN he bets .

[mcatdog]

I would bet more on the flop for sure, but I like it other than that. He will be value betting all of the overpairs in his range, and the only way you get value out of the missed overcards is by checking and inducing a bluff.

[Genitruc]

I think looking to c/r the turn is a mistake here

many of the hands in the range you put him on will look to control the pot on the turn as either he didn't yet "get there" or his hand is relatively vulnerable since board is very scary.

Once you check the turn, I like the river check.

[gabe]

this might be some good FPS with deeper stacks but i would rather just push the turn with 100bb stacks

[aislephive]

I'd reraise more preflop and bet a little larger on the flop. As played I like the river c/r a lot given that card.