C-Betting Profitability

[Toadstool]

I've been thinking about how profitable c-betting really is lately (when you miss the flop). I often used to find myself having to keep reloading 10BB's frequently due to preflop raises and c-betting where my opponant wouldnt fold. This adds up, and can hugely offset stacking somebody for 100BB, say you stack someone once in an hour, but fail with 5 CB's in a row, thats only a net gain of 50BB, this canseriously impact your long term winnings. I was trying to do a little math to see how often the opponant needed to fold to make C-Betting profitable.

You raise 4BB, assume SB calls, pot is 9BB, and you flop nothing.
Scenario 1:
after the flop, you raise 7 BB, opponant fold and you gain 5BB.
Scenario 2:
You raise to 7BB, Opponant makes it 21, you fold and lose 11BB

In this situation you are risking 11BB to win 5BB, you would need your opponant to fold almost 70% of the time to make this move break even!

To show a decent profit you would need your opponant to fold at least 75% of the time.

Obviously you need to bet when you miss sometimes, so people cant read you so easily, but I have lately been just check/folding around 75% of the time on missed flops (If I miss, I will usually bet if the middle card is an ace or a certain suit I use to randomise my bluffing)

Also, To offset people betting every time you check after being the preflop raiser, mix in some more Check raises and slowplays to stop people playing back at you - say 25% of the time if you hit.

What do you guys think?

[!Luck]

Keep in mind that your opponet will hit 30-33% and only 17% of time will he hit his top pair, which is not nessacarly the boards high pair.

[swiggidy]

First off, there is 10BB in the pot. The one's you put in aren't yours anymore.
Now they only need to fold 50% of the time for you break even (if you never win).

Second, if they are calling more than 50% of the time, DON'T C-BET!!! You are playing with clueless people who will pay you off every time, value bet!!! When they stop calling because "you always have the goods" then you can c-bet profitably.

[Renton]

Its a tad more complicated than that.

Say you have AKo on the button at a ten player table, are folded to, and there are fairly solid players in the blinds. The blinds are 1 and 2 with 200 stacks, and you are making a pot-size raise of 7.

Theres a blindstealing EV calculation to be made here.

You are betting 7 to get 3 dollars.

To figure out what the chances are, we'll set a range of hands that the players in the blinds will call with. Most solid players in the blinds will fold the bottom 80% of hands.

So the chance that your blind steal attempt will be successful is:

.8 * .8 = 0.64 or 64%.

So lets go back. You raise preflop (with any two cards, much less AKo), and will win $3, 64% of the time.

The other 36% of the time, you will get called and be at worst a coinflip. Lets ignore all the times you will get reraised, or the times that blinds call.

According to PokerStove, AKo has 62% equity VS the top 20% range of hands. So now we have to calculate two outcomes: missing the flop or hitting the flop.

For further simplicity, we'll say that AKo hits the flop 33% of the time. From here on is huge EV. Sometimes you'll get stacked or have to make a big laydown, but most times, you'll take this down on the flop, or value bet all streets against an inferior hand and win a decent pot.

The other 66% of the time, you'll have to do without hitting the flop. The pot is 16 dollars and they either bet or check to you. If they bet which they might do 10% of the time, you'll have to fold. If they check to you, you should usually bet, regardless of the flop texture.

So you bet a standard amount, $11 into a $16 pot. You are now betting $11 to win $27, meaning he has to fold 41% (11/27) of the time for you to turn an immediate profit.

Keyword "immediate." Sometimes you'll get checkraised and have to fold. Sometimes you'll get called and have to fold a blank turn. However, sometimes you'll catch an A or a K on the turn and win, or your AK high might even go on to win if he shuts down on the turn and checks down. Sometimes you'll win with a second barrel if the top card pairs the turn.

So here's all the outcomes in a hand:

68% Preflop: You'll bet and steal the blinds. OR (EV=$3)
34% Preflop: You'll get called with the best of it generally.

Now this 34% splits into:

12% Flop: You'll hit the flop and generally win a medium pot OR (EV= At least $27)
22% Flop: You'll miss the flop.

Now this 22% splits into:

15.4% Flop: You'll bet and take it down. (EV= $27)
6.6% Flop: You'll bet and not take it down.

Now this 6.6% splits into:

5.6% Turn: You'll either get checkraised on the flop, or miss the turn and have to fold to his bets. (EV= -$11)
1% Turn: You'll actually hit your hand and win. (EV= at least $38)


See the continuation bet is only a very small part of the whole EV calculation.

[Lukie]

I've been thinking about how profitable c-betting really is lately (when you miss the flop). I often used to find myself having to keep reloading 10BB's frequently due to preflop raises and c-betting where my opponant wouldnt fold. This adds up, and can hugely offset stacking somebody for 100BB, say you stack someone once in an hour, but fail with 5 CB's in a row, thats only a net gain of 50BB, this canseriously impact your long term winnings. I was trying to do a little math to see how often the opponant needed to fold to make C-Betting profitable.

This is overly simplistic and flawed for a lot of reasons. But if the large majority of your c-bets are getting played back at, you should only make them when you make a hand. Of course you need to keep in mind that perhaps the only reason you stacked the one guy is because you are betting at every flop...

You raise 4BB, assume SB calls, pot is 9BB, and you flop nothing.
Scenario 1:
after the flop, you raise 7 BB, opponant fold and you gain 5BB.
Scenario 2:
You raise to 7BB, Opponant makes it 21, you fold and lose 11BB

In this situation you are risking 11BB to win 5BB, you would need your opponant to fold almost 70% of the time to make this move break even!

you are counting preflop action as well. Like you are mixing that somebody calls preflop AND you miss the flop, mixing the 2 streets together. I can say with certainty that againts most players, when they call your raise from the SB, YOU are getting the best of it here preflop in general. Playing with position and initiative is very easy compared to playing without them. So if we are just looking at the post-flop c-bet, say you bet 3/4 pot, that bet only has to be successful 3/7 times to be profitable! And heads up, in position, it almost always is. Of course this needs to be compared to the EV of checking, but this is usually a very standard bet here.

Obviously you need to bet when you miss sometimes, so people cant read you so easily, but I have lately been just check/folding around 75% of the time on missed flops (If I miss, I will usually bet if the middle card is an ace or a certain suit I use to randomise my bluffing)

There is nothing wrong with check/folding when you miss the flop, and if you don't do it with some degree of regularity, you open yourself up to exploitation from solid regulars to loose passive donkeys alike.

Also, To offset people betting every time you check after being the preflop raiser, mix in some more Check raises and slowplays to stop people playing back at you - say 25% of the time if you hit.

really situation dependant, but I don't see anything wrong with this idea. In general though, I try to conceal the strength of my hand through agression, but thats an entirely different discussion in itself.

[Renton]

rofl both lukie and i attacked it at same time

[Lukie]

Yes we did.. your post is really good, too, except for this part, which is just blatantly wrong.

So you bet a standard amount, $11 into a $16 pot. You are now betting $11 to win $16, meaning he has to fold 68% (11/16) of the time for you to turn an immediate profit.

should read

So you bet a standard amount, $11 into a $16 pot. You are now betting $11 to win $27, meaning he has to fold 41% (11/27) of the time for you to turn an immediate profit.

[Renton]

why do uncalled bets count?

[swiggidy]

So you bet a standard amount, $11 into a $16 pot. You are now betting $11 to win $27, meaning he has to fold 41% (11/27) of the time for you to turn an immediate profit.

Ummm, no you only win $16. You win $27 if he calls and it gets checked down and you have the best hand.

[Lukie]

are u guys saying i'm wrong?

[swiggidy]

are u guys saying i'm wrong?

Yes

[Lukie]

[Lukie]

no

[Lukie]

i thought u guys were joking but I've realized that you are serious, so I'll explain it...

[Lukie]

So you bet a standard amount, $11 into a $16 pot. You are now betting $11 to win $27, meaning he has to fold 41% (11/27) of the time for you to turn an immediate profit.

$16 in pot.

You bet $11. Let's run this scenario 27 times.

You wager $11 on 27 different occasions ($297). 11 of those times you win the $16 pot, plus your $11 wager (you get that back too). Non-coincidentially, this also equals $297. This means this move has an immediate expectation of 0. We are going to ignore the times when our c-bet is called by a worse hand (draw, worse a-high, etc), which adds to our expectation, and we are also going to ignore the value our hand has if we decide to check (from nothing to something significant).

You guys are essentially arguing that an $11 bet has to be successful 68% of the time to win a $16 pot for it to be profitable. and that is about as stupid as it sounds.

[swiggidy]

OK, I see now.

I was confused by the winning $27. Because you're really only winning a $16 pot if he folds.

However, you are getting 11:16 odds, which is 11/27 = 41%

[Lukie]

it's all good. Just think about it logically and it should be crystal clear.

[Renton]

my bad, post edited

[Werddown]

It is much more valuable to c-bet most missed flops (against 1 or 2 opponents) and have people think you are full of shit when you actually do flop that monster. There are also alot of nits today that wont ever call on the flop unless they have the nuts... These players fold way more than 70% of the time.

If you check behind alot when you miss the flop, they're going to be less likely to pay you off when you actually do hit and show strength. This is more devastating to you than losing your c-bet, because you're potentially giving up 100+ BBs to save a couple.

Not to mention, you are giving them free cards, and even if all you have is two overcards, you're still ahead of someone with a missed suited connector or dominated overcards. Just because you didn't pair up on the flop doesn't mean you are behind. You need to bet your hand so they don't pair up or pick up a draw for free and take down the pot that you used to be in control of. If they share one of your overs but have a worse kicker, you could potentially win even more money from them if that card does hit and the pot is already raised.

Dont get me wrong, there are some situations where you should not c-bet, but they only come up when facing many opponents or if you have a good read (such as, a donkey playing tons of hands that will auto-call if he catches any piece of a flop, and the flop texture is one that he probably at least has a draw if not a pair).

For the most part though, after you've raised preflop, against 1 or 2 opponents who check to you in position... You should be c-betting.

Aggression is rewarded in poker, being passive is not.

[jackvance]

If they share one of your overs but have a worse kicker, you could potentially win even more money from them if that card does hit and the pot is already raised.

Don't forget this could easily be reversed too.

[Werddown]

Don't forget this could easily be reversed too.

Not as easily as you think if you play tight.

I'm hardly ever out-kicked with top pair, and if I am they usually do something to indicate it like re-raising. The average fish willl often just call you down with TPWK and give their money away. Kicker is not in their vocabulary.

My point was, even though you might not have a made hand on the fop, chances are if you play TAGG you'll either take the pot down or end up having the best hand at showdown a good percentage of the time... Enough to make it worth betting on the flop.

You still have to lay hands down when people are showing strength at you... But that doesn't mean you should avoid betting the flop alltogether for fear of someone calling or raising.

[Awaji E]

I think what he meant was if you have AK, opponent has K7, and the flop comes 2 4 7, with a K on the turn.

[Werddown]

I think what he meant was if you have AK, opponent has K7, and the flop comes 2 4 7, with a K on the turn.

Yeah, that happens, but villian will usually do something to indicate that he has two pair. With just a pair they like to call you down. If someone is showing alot of strength back at me all of the sudden, I am capable of folding top pair.

If he doesn't want to show me enough strength for me to lay down my hand then I will only lose a small pot anyways, so I'm fine with that.

Adding to the conversation, I have actually begun to tighten up slightly with c-bets on fishier sites like party. However if I am on pokerstars with the weak tight nubs, I c-bet them to death every chance I get.

[Miffed22001]

i use a pretty standard range of big cards in position eg no QJo raising UTG even in 6max but i will raise with sooted connectors etc like JTs in any position so that im mixing it up.

Opps figure it out soon enough and start getting outta pots without a monster or become calling stations which soots me just fine.
Thats why c-betting is supposed towork.
If your preflop range is transparent i.e only AJ/AQ/AK etc then your c-bets will be also.
Also too many just go right out and bet, for example with hands like AA on xxxrag flop. If you varied how you play here by c/ring etc then your c-betting again becomes less transparent, effectivly you can get away with a few c/r ace high bluffs if its known youll c/r AA on rag flops.
We can sit and argue the math all day but if your range is wholly predictable as is your betting patterns with certain hands then so will be ur c-bets and how they are perceived post flop.