Flopping Sets vs. Flopping trips...

[Off5th]

I'm just wondering if it's the same odds of flopping a set when you hold 77 (flop comes 3 A 7), as oppose to flopping trips when you hold something like 57s (flop comes 77A). A lot of players like to call with SC to hit a big flop. Assuming your up against an effective stack, would it justify the call????

[Lukie]

you hit a set with paired cards much, much more often then you hit trips with unpaired cards.

[EricE]

From the sticky at top of forum.

"flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card 1.347% "

[jackvance]

Flopping trips on an unpaired hand:

6/50*2/49*42/48*3= 1.29%

* two pair: 6/50* 3/49*42/48*3= 1.9%
* boat or quads: 6/50*5/49*4/48= 0.1%

Flopping a set on a pp:

2/50*47/49*46/48*3= 11%

* quads: 2/50*1/49*46/48*3= 0.2%

So yeah.. chance to flop a set or quads is 11.2% for a pp, while chance to flop trips, quads or a boat with unpaired cards (like a sc) is 1.39%.. big big difference.

With a SC you are running on the odds to hit a straight/flush/trips/2p etc, which adds up to like 5%.. or more likely, a straight or flush draw, which will happen 1/5 or so.


On the surface it looks like this: a pp will hit a set 1 in 9 times. A sc will hit 2p or better 1 in 20 and a draw 1 in 5.. these draws will hit, on average, over turn+river 1 in 3. So a sc can give a playable hand 1 in 4 times. But everyone loves sets so much more because they give a nearly indestructible hand, that is also very undetectable.

If a sc hits a flush, this might be perceptable. Certain straights might be suspected too. Trips are detectable too. And they're all a lot more fragile than a set. Let's say Villain has AA, and we have a set.. he is basically drawing to 2 outs. If we have two pair, he has more outs because the board can pair up. If Villain has TPTK, he is drawing dead vs a set, because if he hits trips, we hit a boat. If Villain has TPTK, again the board can pair to kill two pair, or he atleast has some outs to beat trips. Also, if a set is up against a flush or straight, there is a good chance to beat it.. 32% to boat up over turn+river. This is why sets are so great.. when a pp hits a set, this is an undetectable and nearly indestructable hand. When a sc hits, it's usually a draw, so no solid hand.. and when it hits a solid hand, it is much more detectable and also more easily outdrawn.

A last tiny advantage to a set is that we only need one board card for it.. a sc needs 2 or 3 to make a good hand. So if we hit a set, that leaves 2 cards on the table for our opponent to hit something he likes too - ie, a bit more chance to get paid.