Also, please realize that my advice is generally to play an
open preflop game, by playing starting hands that can go in a lot of speculative directions, and playing REALLY good
post-
flop poker. Also, let's not forget that if either of the two limpers has
JJ or
QQ and is disguising, I'd rather have
AA-
QQ, AKs, AK, KQs-56s, before ANY other
pocket pair. Being 70/30 or 75/25
dog (or better) is way better than the 81/19
dog you are with little
pair vs. bigger
pair. If you're overpaired in the hole by someone else you're going to be about 8% to make a
set by the
river if you
miss the flop. Assuming both the remaining cards that will make your
set are still live, you'd be about 4.25% after the
turn if you missed again. I would say in this situation I might even consider throwing away pairs up to at least 55 unless you
call for
set value and are fairly certain the BB is not going to
raise.
The funniest thing about liitle pocket pairs, is that they lose a tremendous amount of their value
post-
flop, in multiway hands when they miss, unless everyone else misses too. Since you'll only
flop your
set about 10% of the time, by taking 8:1 on a pre-
flop bet, the EV you're getting (Let's use a $5/10 NL game round numbers are easier to work with) with Little
pair vs. Bigger
pair for half a bet preflop would be: 0.9*(-5) + 0.10(40+x) where x is the amount you're likely to win if you hit your
set, I would put this on average between 1/2 to the total of the pot, if we average it @ 3/4 of the pot you'd have 0.9*(-5) + 0.10*(40+(0.75)(40)) or a positive expectancy of $3.50. 35% of a
big blind. Meaning it's a barely profitable play. If you figure to only win 50% of the pot extra after the
flop (might be more reasonable considering in a multiway pot others can make straights and flushes and possibly even a better
set then yours), the EV gets even worse: -4.5 + 0.10 (40 + (0.50)(40)) = $1.50. The play would net you a whopping $1.50 on average, 15% of the BB. I really
don't like making calls with an EV that
marginal. That's basically what you'd be getting with 3 callers to the
flop and none of them either having an
overpair, or pairing higher than you on the
flop.