Overagressive AK then Overwimpy WTF! Losing value?

[DaHorror]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($8.90)
MP2 ($10)
MP3 ($16.17)
CO ($24.65)
Hero ($20.75)
SB ($31.25)
BB ($33.30)
UTG ($27.75)
UTG+1 ($5.85)
UTG+2 ($4.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K. MP2 posts a blind of $0.25. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, MP3 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $1.50.

[Horror - ok we just can't have this many damn limpers when I have a strong hand I wanna play - let's jack it up to 7-8bb got 1 caller - fine. I think I picked 7 here as I kinda wanted 1 caller, 8 I think woulda crossed the line and I'd have gotten zero. Last to act caller hesitated a long while before calling - his hand is probably pretty weak.]

Flop: ($4.60) 4, 8, Q (2 players)
MP3 bets $2, Hero raises to $6, MP3 calls $4.

[Ok - he bets pretty weak (half pot) so that means he's probably got a queen or a pair - I'm thinking the Queen most likely - let's put him to the test here - I raised huge preflop so it's pretty safe for me to rep AA/KK - stick in a pot-sized reraise that happens to be 3x his probe bet...he calls...hmm...he didn't push over the top so he's probably just got a pair of Queens - are all my outs good? KQ/AQ (less likely) are possible - so are QJ/QT or just a mid pair.]

Turn: ($16.60) 2 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

[It would suck to have to give up this pot...but I just had a bad feeling that if I made the probably correct play to force him to put in his last $8.xx he would do it...turned out he was a bit of a calling station. So I take my free card. AK I push here no problem - just two overs that I'm not positive are both outs against a calling station was my issue.]

River: ($16.60) K (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

[Now this is just silly of me...he checks the river so he very likely does not have KQ...AQ/QJ/QT are still posibilities. Diamonds I pretty much rule out so I'm not worried about a flush. I figured that any bet from me makes my hand butt obvious and he just folds (or fears the flush and folds)...so I elect to give him a free showdown knowing that I am very likely to be ahead at this point].

Final Pot: $16.60

Ok - so my questions:
(1) Is it better to just put him allin/push the turn here when I'm repping AA vs. what I perceive as just top pair?
(2) How much can I expect to be called on the river? I thought about putting out a $4 bet - but figured just about anything I put out there makes my hand clear - not that he would fold but meh - this was probably a stupid line of reasoning and looking back at this board I definitely should have bet the $4 and be prepared to call the other $4 if he puts it in.

Thanks for comments.

[STIdrivr]

I think its safe to value bet the K on the river the way the hand was played. I would be more likely to check if the A came on the river because there would be more 2 pair possibilities,he could of limp called with AQs,A8s and A4s.

[andy-akb]

This wasnt overaggressive with AK preflop, and I think was standard, with 4 people already in the pot I would raise to 8xBB, 7 is fine.

On the flop your raise is not pot sized. To make a potsized raise you first add up how much it is to call the bet and then how big the pot is. So here there is $6.60 in the pot and $2 to call the bet, a PSR would be to $8.60. This play really depends on my opponent, if they are passive or will call down with top pair, then Im not going to raise here, but if they are fairly tight or atleast have shown they will lay down a hand to aggression, then a PSR would be good.

After being called I would check behind on the turn. The river brings a K that completes a runner-runner flush, but that isnt something you can be very worried about. If your opponent is calling with a Q then they cant have made a flush, if they are calling with a PP, they cant have made a flush, it would have to be a very random hand to have made the flush. On this river I probably bet about $8-10, if you think you are very likely to be ahead then there is no reason not to bet this.

[DaHorror]

Yea I didn't think the preflop was overdone - but the flop was semi-questionable. However, my thought was that he just had a Q and I could push him off repping AA. Didn't work out.

I probably posted this hand to smack myself for not betting the river...which was the overwimpy part. I knew I was good but I seriously figured he wasn't calling more than $2 or so and what was the point. That's just silly - I shoulda gone at least another $4-$10 and see what happens - if he folds he folds.

Villain shows Q J

I win so results = good, play = mostly bad.

[Pelion]

Bet the river.

the rest is fine unless you only expect him to bet the flop when he has connected, and you kn0w hes a calling station. In that case you can call/fold depending on how big his bet is since you know you are drawing.

[givememyleg]

I don't mind a river check at all.

[andy-akb]

I don't mind a river check at all.

Why?

[givememyleg]

I don't mind a river check at all.

Why?

The pot is $16. You really have no idea where your hand is by the river. Any value bet pretty much commits you if he check raises.

You have a hand you can showdown that could be the best hand. You don't know if he is slow playing a set, hell maybe he even hit a runner runner flush. If he has QK and you value bet your TPTK, then you're in loads of trouble. I would showdown here and see if my TPTK is good to win a 64 bb pot.

[DaHorror]

Thanks for additional comments.

Sucky thing here was that my instincts said I was best on the river. I think KQ leads here - flush certainly does since he's OOP and he doesn't want a check-behind.

Main reason I didn't bet was I figured I wasn't getting much more outta the guy - leading the river pretty much tips my hand. I think I coulda got another $2-$4 outta him. Not a big value loss but that all adds up over time, and sure helps cover blinds!

I don't think a check-behind here is the worst play ever or anything - it's just that I felt 80% confident that I was best - I bluffed it out reasonably well and then hit, and then fell asleep lol.

[Pelion]

The pot is $16. You really have no idea where your hand is by the river. Any value bet pretty much commits you if he check raises.

You have a hand you can showdown that could be the best hand. You don't know if he is slow playing a set, hell maybe he even hit a runner runner flush. If he has QK and you value bet your TPTK, then you're in loads of trouble. I would showdown here and see if my TPTK is good to win a 64 bb pot.

If the A had come I might agree but its pretty unlikely the K helped him and its even less likely he would check it if it did. I think he calls with any Q after you have shown so much weakness. He also doesnt have alot left behind so on the very rare occasions he does check/raise it wont hurt much anyway.