AA in a big, fat grey area

[dalecooper]

Tell me what you guys think of this hand.

25 NL. Villain was up to about $40, I had my original 25 buy-in plus a couple dollars. Villain hadn't shown down a lot of hands but seemed to me to be a solid TAgg, with emphasis on the Agg. He didn't enter that many pots but used position to take down most of the pots he was in, and he seemed to be a big fan of the "flop raise to find out where you stand" move. Twice I had seen him raise a $1 flop bet to $4 (protecting top pair/good kicker?) and then take it down with a solid turn bet.

On this hand I raised to $1 with :As: :Ah:. Villain called from the button and everyone else folded, so the pot was just over $2 going to the flop. The flop was :Kh: :Qh: . I didn't love it (not ever that happy with multiple broadways when I'm playing aces out of position against a caller with a somewhat unknown range) but I didn't hate it either. I settled on a weakish bet of 1.25, which he promptly raised to $4. I was worried about something like KQ but I also thought he might do this with AK or KJ, in which case I had him crushed, and definitely wanted to stay in the hand. I started to feel like maybe a cheap showdown was a good idea, so I just called.

The turn was a blank, non-heart low card. I checked and he bet $7. With the pot at over $10 I felt like this was a dangerous street. Basically I was hoping I could just call here and get a check behind on the river, so that's what I did. Any raise from me here and we were obviously playing for stacks. I felt like against this particular player, a call or fold were my best two options; I just didn't have such a great read that I wanted to put it all in with aces. He seemed good enough that he might fold almost everything except a hand that was ahead of me.

The river brought a much-clarifying :Ac:. Now I felt like if he had AK he was definitely paying me off, and he might with KQ as well. I was slightly worried about JT - I had no solid information that he wouldn't play a hand like this as a semi-bluff - but decided to not bet would just be throwing away value. With the pot already at $24, I open-pushed for my remaining $16.

What do you think?

[jackvance]

It's a toss-up for me between check/call or push. It's hard to say which is better since you can't put your opp on a hand so easily. If you are beat (JT), your money is going in anyway. But the fact remains about whether you might be folding out a weaker hand that might have tried to bluff you out at the river - in which case check/call (or check/raise if he doesn't put you all-in) might be better - or whether the A is a scare card for him and he'll check behind on your check - in which case a push is the best option.

On the whole, if he's come off as sensible, I push; If he's come off as jumping on weakness aggressively, I will check. Push is probably the most +EV decision without a definite read on this (the ace is too likely to be a scare card for him), so I agree with your play

[dalecooper]

He came across as pretty sensible but aggressive, which is one reason it was a hard decision to make. I thought if he had KQ he might check behind, and he definitely would with KJ. KQ would probably call my push, KJ, definitely not - but I wasn't getting another cent from KJ anyway. AK was definitely calling, but AK would bet that river. And if he has JT, whether I push or check/call is immaterial. One other possibility is that he has a flush draw - I might get a bluff from a missed flush draw. But considering the cards on the board & the type of player he was, it was hard to put him on a flush draw other than maybe JhTh, in which case he was ahead of me anyway.

It really does seem like a toss-up.

[arkana]

Turn is a check raise all in or a fold, if you really think he will play a lot of hands that you beat this aggressively then i dont see how you can fold so stick it in (but dont check call, thats awful). Its difficult to say whether or not your hand is good here because from your description it sounds like villain is very aggro postflop but he could just be running hot (you only saw him do it in two hands, not much to judge on).

I started to feel like maybe a cheap showdown was a good idea, so I just called.

Letting an aggressive player control the betting on a draw heavy board when you are out of position is not a good idea.

[jackvance]

Turn is a check raise all in or a fold

While I totally see the merit in a playstyle of going all-in a lot, don't you think it's just as good - or maybe just a different style rather than good/bad - to play it calmly rather when you're pretty sure you can outplay the opponents at your stake postflop?

[dalecooper]

One reason that I check/call sometimes at 25 and especially 50 NL is the high incident of sporadic bluffers and hand-definers. They get top pair/any kicker, or a draw, and they will raise you once, maybe bet into you on the next street; but they're not usually so dedicated that they will push the river after a couple of calls. Basically it slows them down when you show resistance because they become afraid that you're slowplaying something, or are just a calling station. Against these types of players it lets me control the pot size and get enough information to make a better decision on the turn or river. The problem with re-raising up front is that they might fire the same raise with two pair or a set that they would with a draw or top pair, which I'm ahead of; this doesn't make me eager to push all my money in and let them make a decision with more information than I had.

With this hand, let's say I know for sure my opponent has one of two hands by the turn: AK or KQ. (I don't really know that, but that's my suspicion based on reads and his bets here.) My equity against him on the turn is dead even, 50/50 - actually 51/49 in his favor. I really can't fold but do I really want to shove all my money in?

[arkana]

Calling a very aggressive player who fires multiple barrels down is fine on certain boards and i do it quite often, but on draw heavy boards OOP it really really sucks. Any heart, any broadway card or any 9 (thats a lot of cards) could give your opponent a better hand and since he acts last you are going to be the one facing the tough decisions not him. This hand demonstrates the power of position quite well and calling down is going to leave you cursing on the river most of the time ("fvck he checked behind with AK", "oh crap i pushed into the nuts", etc). You got your safe card on the turn, the pot is reasonably big and you suspect your opponent to have a wide range here but there are a boatload of scarecards that will fall on the river where you have to act first. Tell me again why you want to call?

Obviously if you put him on exactly AK or KQ then calling > raising but from your description his range is much wider. When you check raise the turn AI you are risking $23 to win a $17 pot which isnt such a big overbet plus you still have decent equity when you get called (i assumed opponent would only call with KK-QQ,88,AKs,KQs,AKo,KsQc).

Board: Kh Qh 8s 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.1244 % 36.12% 00.00% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 63.8756 % 63.88% 00.00% { KK-QQ, 88, AKs, KQs, AKo, KsQc }

Jackvance: how exactly are you planning to outplay your opponent acting first on the river? Im sorry but its way more likely that you will be the one getting outplayed if you take the passive line against anyone but a pure maniac who would bet any river no matter what his hand is.

[dalecooper]

I see your point. I have to think it over. I actually didn't feel like his range was all that wide - I figured him for one of these hands:

AK
KQ
JhTh
88
KJ
...in descending order of likelihood. Me having the Ah is helpful because he can't have AhJh or AhTh. If anything, I felt like a scare card coming off (a heart or broadway) was more likely to slow him down and get me the cheap showdown I was after. Holding the Ah, I might have even considered bluffing a low river heart with an open push, which gives me another way to win against what may be a better hand (esp. KQ). I can't see QQ or KK here - based on my read I don't see him smooth-calling either of those hands pre-flop, or playing them so hard and fast after the flop (the two actions are contradictory, in any case).

[jackvance]

Jackvance: how exactly are you planning to outplay your opponent acting first on the river? Im sorry but its way more likely that you will be the one getting outplayed if you take the passive line against anyone but a pure maniac who would bet any river no matter what his hand is.

I was referring to meta-game pushing a lot vs playing it calmer.

[arkana]

Jackvance: how exactly are you planning to outplay your opponent acting first on the river? Im sorry but its way more likely that you will be the one getting outplayed if you take the passive line against anyone but a pure maniac who would bet any river no matter what his hand is.

I was referring to meta-game pushing a lot vs playing it calmer.

My point is on this specific board calling down is bad, calling down on a K72 rainbow board is obviously totally different.

[dsaxton]

I'd probably reraise flop since he apparently has loose raising standards. You say you wanted him to stay in the hand, but acknowledged that you didn't know to continue on the turn. I think if you don't know how to continue after the flop, and are capable of folding aces to another raise, you should reraise the flop. Otherwise I call and probably check-raise the turn.