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 How to spot a set (and save your stack)
Or, Why the 10x rule for limping pocketpairs doesn't necessarily work.
Reads: CO is your typical TAgg. Raises his big hands, folds his rags.
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/1.00
5 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with A K
UTG folds, CO calls $1.00, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, CO calls $2.50.
Flop:8 K 5 ($9.50, 2 players)
CO bets $4.50, Hero raises to $11.00, CO raises $25.00. Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $14.00 returned to CO.
Ok, let me break this down a bit. First, the Cut Off limped from an early position, then cold called a 3.5x raise. This in itself doesn't mean much at all, he could have a huge range of hands. Personally, I put him on any mid-range pocket pair , a suited connector, or a couple of paint cards which didn't deserve a raise.
The flop is a rainbow, un-coordinated board, which gives you top pair, top kicker. $$$$$$$$$$, right?
Then the formerly passive CO bets into you. This is where alarm bells should start going off. You do the right thing, being aggressive, and raise up your TPTK.
Villain then 3 bets you. The range of hands which have you beat here (because 9/10 you probably will be) are: 88,55, KK, AA, K8, K5, 85.
Because you are up against a tagg, we can safely rule out them limp/calling K8, K5 and 85. KK is unlikely, because you hold one K, and another is on the board. You may also be able to eliminate AA and KK if you don't think that villain could resist raising every time he got monsters pre flop.
This leaves a set of 8s, or a set of 5s. Both of which you are very, very behind.
Board: 8h Kc 5d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 01.6162 % 01.62% 00.00% { AhKd }
Hand 2: 98.3838 % 98.38% 00.00% { 8c8d }
Example 2:
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00
6 players
Converter
Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with A A
UTG calls $1.00, 1 fold CO raises to $3.00, Hero raises to $9.00, 2 folds, UTG calls $8.00, CO calls $6.00.
Flop: 6 K 9 ($28.50, 3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets $20.00, UTG calls $20.00, CO folds.
Turn: J ($68.50, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.
River: A ($68.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $40.00, Hero raises to $100.00, UTG calls $30.55 (all in)
Results:
UTG has 9d, 9s (three of a kind, nines)
Hero has Ah, Ad (three of a kind, aces)
Disection:
UTG limped, then called a 3-bet. Obvious pocket pair/monster. Note that under the 10x rule, he would have had the odds to call the reraise, as I had a stack of over 100bb at this point.
On the flop, I was checked to. This isn't really much of an issue, as you would expect to be checked to when you 3 bet preflop. Notice that UTG check/calls a hefty flop bet.
This is an obvious slowplay. He could have two clubs here, but it's unlikely that he would have limp/called a three bet preflop with a suited connector. This means that he has setted on me. Notice the check behind on the turn, knowing that I am well behind. The river gives me my 2 outer, and I stack him. If I don't improve on the river, I fold to his value bet.
In conclusion, although the 10x rule is a nice one to follow mostly, remember who your opponents are. If they can lay down a hand to your set, then it's probably not worth seeing the flop. Another reason I posted this is to help you stop paying off sets, which is about the most annoying thing ever.
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