Big Pot vs Thinking LAgg

[Fnord]

My opponent is 30/15ish. Late night PokerStars game. Table has been playing tight. My guess is my PFR takes down the blinds 1 in 3 times. I've pretty much just shown good stuff and have been behaving.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 ($84.70)
Fnord ($150.20)
MP2 ($360.10)
CO ($95.85)
Button ($100)
SB ($6.05)
BB ($27.35)
UTG ($84.10)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with 9, 7.
2 folds, Fnord raises to $3, MP2 calls $3, 4 folds.

Flop: ($7.50) A, 8, 9 (2 players)
Fnord bets $5, MP2 raises to $10, Fnord calls $5.

Turn: ($27.50) Q (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP2 bets $15, Fnord raises to $45, MP2 calls $30.

River: ($117.50) 3 (2 players)
Fnord bets $45, MP2 raises to $302.1, Fnord calls $47.20 (All-In).

Final Pot: $511.80

[jackvance]

Looks like a clean double-up there. No doubt he thought he had this one in the bag.. seeing an A and a Q of hearts would only reasonably have him pin KhJh on you, which he probably dismissed. I wonder what he had though.. probably not JT.. AK/AQ/88..?

[Fnord]

I thought the river was a crying call...

[AHiltz]

I've pretty much just shown good stuff and have been behaving

Is that a wiff of bullshit I smell??

Turn: ($27.50) QHeart (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP2 bets $15, Fnord raises to $45, MP2 calls $30.

River: ($117.50) 3Club (2 players)
Fnord bets $45, MP2 raises to $302.1

So, you check raise the turn and lead the flop, and he still pushes. Crying call for sure. You are behind here more times then not (since you have stated that he is a thinking player. Against a donk it's a relatively easy call).

[Fnord]

I've pretty much just shown good stuff and have been behaving

Is that a wiff of bullshit I smell??

I'm being serious. That's my assessment of the table conditions. After this guy gave me a little grief I had to slow down and I really didn't have the cards either. Quite a contrast to when I start to smell dead money or weakness and really start to LAgg it up. When this hand came I decided to try to speed up a bit again and see how the table reacted.

2 questions:

Do I go to war on the flop?

Do I push river? Crying calls for half a buy-in really suck.

[AHiltz]

Push river?

If you are sure that you want a call, yes. Betting half your stack looks more like you have the goods then does a push here after the non push turn reraise IMO.

[bair]

id probably just push the river, your bet is fine too, its probably all going in regardless.....if your stack was as deep as his then i dont know

[Fnord]

(since you have stated that he is a thinking player. Against a donk it's a relatively easy call).

Good point, that could swing either way. With over 3 and a half buys in a pretty boring game, he could be a donk on a rush. Maybe pushing around the nits? I really hadn't seen him do anything terrible besides take his hands a little far.

I like betting bigger more and more I think of it, you don't get that kind of stack by folding good hands....

[Fnord]

its probably all going in regardless

I disagree!

He min-raises an Axx 2 tone flop when I got 2 of 'em in my hand. Then he puts in a reasonable turn bet (for this game) and calls a buisness c/r. What'cha put him on?

[jackvance]

btw what exactly is a crying call? (lol)

[Fnord]

btw what exactly is a crying call? (lol)

Calling expecting to win less than 50% of the time.

[pizzatron]

I can see him with KJh TJh or KTh here, you've shown strength on multiple streets and seeing that he still pushed you can't be in good shape if he's really a thinking lagg.

He didn't show AQo, did he? heheh

[Fnord]

Fold river? Meh, reconsidering showing the river action as it defines his hand pretty well.

What'cha put him on when he calls the turn c/r?

[pizzatron]

If i'm this far already i would not fold the river, i'm just saying that i can't really expect to win most of the time. I guess he could still flip over Tjo or Aq....

[Fnord]

Do I go to war on the flop?

What'cha put him on when he calls the turn c/r?

[pizzatron]

he hit a set and put you on top pair? Against a thinking lagg i might go to war on teh flop and pop it to $30, then get all the money in on the turn if i hit.

I'm not that great at hand reading though, but i think there's also a possibility that he has a set and put you on TPTK or 2p.

[Bmxicle]

jto is a possibility, but i def agree, its an odds based call. You are getting very good odds with the possibility of lower flushes out there.

I like to make it 27 on the flop, but you are out of position so just calling is good too.

[Fnord]

I like to make it 27 on the flop, but you are out of position so just calling is good too.

I used to 3-bet a lot and have toned down. I found I got myself into a lot of close gambles with players who would have played the turn + river pretty terribly.

The raising standard is so $*&^# tight, the folding equity just hasn't been there.

[Renton]

I think theres a possibility that he doesn't put you on the flush. First of all, he sees you've been playing fairly conservatively, and secondly the Ace of hearts is out there, which means a tight player couldn't conceivably have the flush in your spot, since tight players generally hate KJ with a passion. I say he has AA, 88, 99 and YHIG.

[Fnord]

I think theres a possibility that he doesn't put you on the flush. First of all, he sees you've been playing fairly conservatively, and secondly the Ace of hearts is out there, which means a tight player couldn't conceivable have the flush in your spot, since tight players generally hate KJ with a passion. I say he has AA, 88, 99 and YHIG.

Who the fuck taught you to play poker? I agree 100%, athough I think 2 pair and JT are also very reasonable holdings. Maybe even AK up until the river raise.

[Renton]

I think theres a possibility that he doesn't put you on the flush. First of all, he sees you've been playing fairly conservatively, and secondly the Ace of hearts is out there, which means a tight player couldn't conceivable have the flush in your spot, since tight players generally hate KJ with a passion. I say he has AA, 88, 99 and YHIG.

Who the fuck taught you to play poker? I agree 100%, athough I think 2 pair and JT are also very reasonable holdings. Maybe even AK up until the river raise.

Nice pot Fnord?

[Warpe]

He min-raises an Axx 2 tone flop when I got 2 of 'em in my hand. Then he puts in a reasonable turn bet (for this game) and calls a buisness c/r. What'cha put him on?

No reraise p/f but it could be AxKh, a set, or KhJh/KhTh worst case. But I'm tempted to look at his river bet as TPTK with a missed flush draw.
I like the c/r on the turn but once he calls that, I dunno if I like pushing the river...check/call? Would you have called if you hadn't led the river?

[Fnord]

I dunno if I like pushing the river...check/call

I think sets, 2 pair, etc are are more likely than the flush. Checking the river lets them off way too easily. I thought a push might give them a chance to laydown as well. Hence I went for the value bet/call line. Then again I had someone laydown what I was 90% certain was TPGK to that line earlier today, so meh....

[Warpe]

I dunno if I like pushing the river...check/call

I think sets, 2 pair, etc are are more likely than the flush. Checking the river lets them off way too easily. I thought a push might give them a chance to laydown as well. Hence I went for the value bet/call line. Then again I had someone laydown what I was 90% certain was TPGK to that line earlier today, so meh....

AQ fits.

[Fnord]

For the results oriented:

He had JTo

It's been a while since a 300bb pot got pushed my way. Felt good.

[nutsinho]

I would always make a pot sized reraise on that flop. It's blatantly obvious he doesnt have a hand that can call or raise one of those babies very often (JhTh, Th7h, 7h6h are the only hands I can think of, and I would definitely expect any decent lagg to raise more than the minimum with those). Laggs minraising in position =draw, not made hand.

[Fnord]

I would always make a pot sized reraise on that flop.

So like $30?

I guess I should be more specific. He's thinking, he doesn't suck, but I don't know how good he is. I just haven't been getting the folds to 3-bets, particularly on boards like that often enough to want to continue to play them fast.

[Bear Bones]

Fold river? Meh, reconsidering showing the river action as it defines his hand pretty well.

What'cha put him on when he calls the turn c/r?

I don't think the question is what do you put him on, but what does he put you on. You bet 3x pre flop, have been playing tight and come out for 2/3 on the flop. Your check raise on the turn puts you on AQ most likely and his line fits 88 or 99 like a glove maybe even QQ, but I think that is unlikely. Obviously he can beat 2 pr, but I dont think he puts you on a flush with your line.

[nutsinho]

Fold river? Meh, reconsidering showing the river action as it defines his hand pretty well.

What'cha put him on when he calls the turn c/r?

I don't think the question is what do you put him on, but what does he put you on. You bet 3x pre flop, have been playing tight and come out for 2/3 on the flop. Your check raise on the turn puts you on AQ most likely and his line fits 88 or 99 like a glove maybe even QQ, but I think that is unlikely. Obviously he can beat 2 pr, but I dont think he puts you on a flush with your line.

his line absolutely does not fit a set...

[Fnord]

his line absolutely does not fit a set...

Before or after the river?

[nutsinho]

who, at this level minraises a set on a double-obvious-draw board with tons of money behind and can still be described as loose aggressive??

[Fnord]

who, at this level minraises a set on a double-obvious-draw board with tons of money behind and can still be described as loose aggressive??

He played more hands than just about anyone else at the table, liked to raise and bet often. You say Toe-May-Toe, I say Toe-Motto, let's call the whole stack off...

[bdawg56kg]

Fnord, why don't you just push the river? You CR'ed the turn nicely to set up the pot size so that a push would be a perfect bet. As played, folding for your last $47 into a $250 pot is ridiculous.

[Miffed22001]

1. Laggs line is a draw or pure monster. He either has a straight or flush draw. (have the results been posted yet, im taking the post first?)
So id call the flop raise here rather than 3 betting. For a change i think we woant to play a big pot on later streets here when we get an idea of what opp has.
Opp bets reasonably into the turn board where both draws complete. Fnord raises opp calls. Depends what opp puts fnord on here for him to call this. I think he has a made hand, straight or flush and prob has a high heart for the 4 card flush draw if hes really thinking about fnords range.
River is an easy call. I hate beng pot comitted but you just cannot fold that.

haha.
Checked the results. Nicely played.
check raising the turn commits you to a river call anyway unless a 4th heart hits.
best play here was disgusing your hand against the opp by not 3 betting the flop. One of the few times where not 3 betting the flop kept opp interested in a hand for far to long to like it despite whateva else turned up. Looking at it now, with hidnsight. You none 3 bet flop bet should screen draw to laggy player and his river play should be a fold. Horrible play by him imo, but more so on the river