Looking for some thoughts on this...............

[Gareth]

Say your down to the last 11 or 13 players (not sure as you don't check) in a MTT (low buyin).

The chip leader who is to the right of you has been stealing your BB everytime it is folded to him - You are playing TAG - With the frequency of his raising there is a very strong chance he is doing this with a wide range of hands.

So it folds round to him and he raises again, You look down at J10os there is a good chance he has low cards and you have the best hand - should you make your stand here and push believing you have two over cards?

Hand History Below,

Game #1808267224: Hold'em NL (3000/6000) - 2006/03/26 - 22:59:26 (UK)

Table "Tourney 2217302 - 1" Seat 1 is the button.

Seat 1: Bowler889 (66442.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Bigwolf (182888 in chips)
Seat 4: Dinghy (66745 in chips)
Seat 7: mrcoffee (71455 in chips)
Seat 8: 1catfunt (154840 in chips)

Bigwolf: posts the ante 750
Dinghy: posts the ante 750
mrcoffee: posts the ante 750
1catfunt: posts the ante 750
Bowler889: posts the ante 750

Bigwolf: posts small blind 3000
Dinghy: posts big blind 6000

----- HOLE CARDS -----

dealt to Dinghy [Jd Th]
mrcoffee: folds
1catfunt: folds
Bowler889: folds
Bigwolf: raises to 24000
Dinghy:

[drmcboy]

if he's doing this with 78, you have to push.

Why don't you know how many people are left? I'll agree that you shouldn't let it change YOUR game, but it's certainly going to change others as you approach the FT. That's important info you're ignoring.

[johnny_fish]

If his standard raise to steal is 4BB, wait for a better hand. Getting called by K2o would suck.

[Gareth]

drmcboy - I have problems looking at the main or tourny lobby as sometimes my screen crashes - I have no idea why this happens - but it means I have to reboot my computer so I just don't bother looking to see how many people are left.

I agree this will change other players game but not this player as he was the chip leader and was taking advantage of this situation (which he should be doing).

"if he's doing this with 78, you have to push. "

This is what I was looking to hear - That if you believe you have two over cards against two lower cards you should push.

[Gareth]

johnny_fish - He didn't seem to have a standard raise he would raise all different amounts.

[Miffed22001]

you shud have been more aggressive to his blind steals before thsi point anyway to encourage him not to steal your blinds with any two.

[biondino]

Problem is here - what are the odds that he will have one card above a queen? 3 out of 13 cards are above the jack, and he gets two cards, so am I right in thinking there's a 6/13 chance he has a higher card even if his hand is completely random? Those are odds I just wouldn't want to mess with. If you have QJ, then only 4/13 of the time he'll have a higher card - much nicer odds and probably worth a push.

[drmcboy]

are we assuming he calls the push 100% of the time? This is a big call to make with, say, Q3. Especially since it sounds like it's the first time we've fought back.

[Gareth]

Miffed22001 - I was getting cold cards when he was doing this, so this was the first real chance I had to fight back.

I don't think he will call this 100% of the time - probally more 50-50 or 60-40

[drmcboy]

OK, I still like push then.
You're bettter off posting MTT stuff in MTT.

[dev]

I think I'm the only fold here so far...
He just bet 1/3 of your stack and he's got a monster stack himself. If he understands blind stealing he also understand player elimination. He might call you, and even if he's got two unders, it's still almost a 60/40. Wait for a better spot

[drmcboy]

If he folds half the time, and the other half he has unders 50 %, underpair 25%, some hand that owns you 25 %, pushing is a pretty darn good spot.

His stack is NOT a monster.

I think you're ignoring the fact Gareth says he's doing this EVERY TIME. And you're over estimating your skillz ability to overcome your crappy stack.

[dev]

Skillz don't play much when you're AI preflop.

If my math is right, there's 103,495 in the pot, and the villian has to put in 41,995 to call. If there's any chance the villian can put the hero on defence this is an EASY call for him. He's getting 2.5:1!

So if our hero goes AI here, and villian calls with a random hand, hero is 55% or so to win. That's not enough for me in a tourney.

[drmcboy]

I don't think he will call this 100% of the time - probally more 50-50 or 60-40

You win 50% of the time without showdown, then 50% in the showdown.

[bair]

you think theres a 50-50 that he will call? more like 100-0. no way in hell he is folding here even if he has 23o.

[jackvance]

At 10NL I simply fold two overcards.. not worth it most of the time, since they'll call me down with any crap so then I'm going on 6 outs..

[drmcboy]

Reading is +EV.

[Pelion]

At 10NL I simply fold two overcards.. not worth it most of the time, since they'll call me down with any crap so then I'm going on 6 outs..

Kind of irrelevant here. The combined blinds/antes are much to big to play 19 hand poker

[jackvance]

Kind of irrelevant here. The combined blinds/antes are much to big to play 19 hand poker

Heh, I just kinda replied to the title and the poll, sorry, didn't really read any posts..

[Gareth]

you think theres a 50-50 that he will call? more like 100-0. no way in hell he is folding here even if he has 23o.

I don't think he will call here with 23os or such hands - he has been stealing with ease at this table, if he was to show 23os and lose he will be scared to steal as he now only has 100000ish chips and has just shown a crappy hand. Where as if he folds he still has a nice levarage over the other players and will probally get back what he lost in this hand in a few orbits.

[salsa4ever]

i fold.

because i don't think i'm getting enough fold equity

I'm looking for an opportunity to pushbot from SB or button with any 2. if can't push I might fold to see another couple of guys knocked out; well that's a bonus

as played i'd fold. but if i was playing, i may have played back at him with air while i had a larger stack. if i've actually IMPROVED to my current stack - well I'll try to keep on improving by open pushing, not putting my tourney life on the line with low fold equity.

basically, I estimate my fold equity at 10% (20% MAX). I'm folding and looking for the opportunity to push. If it doesn't come, I might limp a couple of places higher.

[salsa4ever]

i fold.

because i don't think i'm getting enough fold equity

I'm looking for an opportunity to pushbot from SB or button with any 2. if can't push I might fold to see another couple of guys knocked out; well that's a bonus

as played i'd fold. but if i was playing, i may have played back at him with air while i had a larger stack. if i've actually IMPROVED to my current stack - well I'll try to keep on improving by open pushing, not putting my tourney life on the line with low fold equity.

basically, I estimate my fold equity at 10% (20% MAX). I'm folding and looking for the opportunity to push. If it doesn't come, I might limp a couple of places higher.