99 with a check reraise all in ($22, 180)

[donkbee]

3rd or 4th hand of the tourney, therefore no reads. Should this be an easy fold?

PokerStars Game #5017417133: Tournament #25178719, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/05/22 - 12:40:30 (ET)
Table '25178719 11' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: artfraff (1380 in chips)
Seat 3: courtiebee (2250 in chips)
Seat 4: GTV2020 (1480 in chips)
Seat 5: dirtyjrz (1140 in chips)
Seat 6: Dekiri (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: deucetew (1460 in chips)
Seat 8: asymptote555 (2790 in chips)
Seat 9: vrticlyntgr8 (1500 in chips)
GTV2020: posts small blind 10
dirtyjrz: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to courtiebee [9s 9h]
Dekiri: folds
deucetew: folds
asymptote555: folds
vrticlyntgr8: folds
artfraff: calls 20
courtiebee: calls 20
GTV2020: calls 10
dirtyjrz: checks
*** FLOP *** [4d 6c 8c]
GTV2020: checks
dirtyjrz: checks
artfraff: bets 100
courtiebee: raises 220 to 320
GTV2020: folds
dirtyjrz: raises 800 to 1120 and is all-in
artfraff: folds
courtiebee:

[chardrian]

Easy fold?? No way.

Ok fold - sure.

I am absolutely, totally fine with a call there as well though.

p.s. - I raise preflop there as well especially with the button.

[mcatdog]

He's in the big blind so he could have anything. Against a solid player, this is always going to be 2-pair or better, or a very strong draw. But this guy lost 1/4 of his stack on the first 3 hands, so he probably sucks. I think you might sometimes see top pair, or a horribly played AA, in addition to the above mentioned hands. I'd probably fold but it could go either way.

[shysti]

He's in the big blind so he could have anything. Against a solid player, this is always going to be 2-pair or better, or a very strong draw. But this guy lost 1/4 of his stack on the first 3 hands, so he probably sucks. I think you might sometimes see top pair, or a horribly played AA, in addition to the above mentioned hands. I'd probably fold but it could go either way.

I think that's a harsh assumption to make just because he's lost a good part of his stack. I mean I've played tournies where I would get hands like AK early raise my normal 4x bb and then miss the flop completely with my opponent betting into me, so I would have to fold.

But as for the hand here, this is a fold. Again he is in the bb and could have anything like mentioned above, no point in losing a good chunk of your stack this early where you are playing catch up after that.

[chardrian]

Didn't read the post enough.

3rd or 4th hand of a 180 man tourney here with your two chip stacks = INSTACALL for me.

You are ahead against TP or two overcards here WAY more often than you are against anything else. And, even if you are behind, you can take the hit and keep trucking.

[donkbee]

You are ahead against TP or two overcards here WAY more often than you are against anything else. And, even if you are behind, you can take the hit and keep trucking.

The guys checks and someone bets a little over the pot. I reraise and the guy in question pushes. You're saying that someone pushes over a significant bet and reraise with overcards or TP more often than anything else???

[dthorne04]

Didn't read the post enough.

3rd or 4th hand of a 180 man tourney here with your two chip stacks = INSTACALL for me.

You are ahead against TP or two overcards here WAY more often than you are against anything else. And, even if you are behind, you can take the hit and keep trucking.

I just don't agree.

Replay the hand action. Bettor bet a little over the pot size, courtie reraises the pot, and there's an all in? I'm saying we're talking probably two pair...pair plus flush draw...straight even. I absolutely loathe that line of thinking. It's a situational thing IMO. I think evaluating the hand action, you're not gonna see just top pair doing that often. Do you honestly think op makes a squeeze here with two overs? Unless we're seeing like 79c, or 9Tc, I don't think the presence of overs is something we see often here.

Sometimes, strength just means strength. In this case, I don't really think she's ever ahead, and if she is, it's very marginally. If she's ahead by where the cards lie, not percentage wise...i think the worst hand she honestly sees here is pair+straight draw, or something to that effect...

I don't know, I just think she's beat here. I don't see a need to put her stack in on a situation where she's been told bluntly, she's beat. I don't see a need to call because of the tourney, but rather because of the situation. Idk...could be wrong.

[fjuanl]

definetly not an easy fold but i really cant see how you could be ahead. this really looks like he flopped the nuts. this isnt a regular check/raise. he checked, saw a bet, saw a raise, and then came over the top.

i dunno how likely a flush draw with 2 overs does this...but you would have to call if theres a good chance they have it. but imo this is 2 pair or a flopped straight way more than flush draw+2 overs

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,940 games 0.063 secs 94,285 games/sec

Board: 4h 6c 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.3232 % 47.32% 00.00% { 99 }
Hand 2: 52.6768 % 52.68% 00.00% { AcJc }

definetly raise preflop when its folded to you in late position

[chardrian]

You are ahead against TP or two overcards here WAY more often than you are against anything else. And, even if you are behind, you can take the hit and keep trucking.

The guys checks and someone bets a little over the pot. I reraise and the guy in question pushes. You're saying that someone pushes over a significant bet and reraise with overcards or TP more often than anything else???

In a $20 180 man tourney on Stars - yes that is exactly what I am saying.

That doesn't mean he doesn't have a really nice draw (e.g. Ac7c), 2 pair or better, but I think you are good here way more often than you and others seem to think.

[Miffed22001]

easy fold
why gambOOL with such a weak holding against what is probably any two?
If you had a set here i might argue differently

[WildBobAA]

I think this is an easy fold. The guy check-raised 2 people who went bet, raise. I'd put him on at least 2 pair here.

Also, please pop this up PF next time.

[chardrian]

Not being results oriented or anything - but tell me I'm right now please courtie.

[zenbitz]

By calling PF, you forfeit some rights to play this Post flop without a set.
I give him credit for a straight or set here.... and even two high clubs is a coinflip. Some chunk of the time he is overplaying A8o.

The only thing that leads me towards calling is that it's only 1/2 your stack.

[Sprayed]

Only a fool would check raise a set or two pair on that board and so many people in the pot. Yes, it is possible that this is a fool since it is early in a 180. I would think that this is a guy or gal (sorry courtie) that has a draw and is willing to gambool since he has lost some chips early on. Since you would still be alive if you lost I would stick my neck out and call.

[Rondavu]

Easy fold

[Sprayed]

Easy fold

gambool!!!!!

[soupie]

Its an 800 chip call to win a 1690 chip pot. Slightly better than 2 to 1 as I calculate the call.

Psychologically where is this guy at and what is he doing? He is down 25% of his chips in 3 hands. Tilt here is more likely than not.

Multiple draws are out there. What would he push with with raise and rerasie all in? He limped preflop from the BB. The push however leads me to believe you are ahead about 50% of the time here with an overpair. All kinds of hands he might be trying to push you out with. Any 2 clubs, 87, 67, 56, 85, A8, 77, 55, who knows he is tilting and will overplay any draw with a pair. I would call here if that is all there was to consider.

Now, you will have 1890 chips if you fold on the flop, 1090 if you call and lose, and 3530 if you call and win. Personally, the prospect of the larger stack means so much more to me in the ability to win the tourney and how I can play, I am calling that off. In my mind there is not much difference between 1890 and 1090, but a huge difference between 3530 and 1890 early in a tourney

[Trebor]

I think that it isnt easy either way. I don't like the way you played the hand before this ... it is unclear from the HH if you are ahead or not. If it were me I would probably call because it is a 20 180, but that isnt really very useful as a general rule. The fact that you can gambol and just open up another if you lose makes these more like rebuys to some extent.

In a more general sence risking elemination with 99 on the first blind level seems idiotic. If you look at it from the prospective of a single elemination mtt playing against a field of idiots than you become much more protective of your chips. I would never let this happen in a mtt I cared about ... good players play small pots unless they have a monster or a monster read. But ehh your question was specific to a 20 180 ... so your probably not a very good player, and your opponents all suck. With that in mind I like a call.

[Sprayed]

so your probably not a very good player

Oh, you are an honest fellow. Be careful now.

[Trebor]

Well in truth I have no idea ... but its important to realise your own level when you are considering if risk is worth it ... If you feel like you are much much better then the field that implies one thing, if you think you are weaker than the field that means something else ... not saying anything about the player just the stakes ... if you are playing 20 180s you are either inexperianced or not good ... either way I have to qualify my advice with that in mind. So dont take it personally.

[mcatdog]

In a more general sence risking elemination with 99 on the first blind level seems idiotic. If you look at it from the prospective of a single elemination mtt playing against a field of idiots than you become much more protective of your chips.

This is the opposite of true. If a tournament has mostly idiots and some good players, I want to get in there and gamble with the idiots right away. Once a lot of them are gone I'll have far fewer opportunities to accumulate chips. It's not like she's going to die or anything if she gets eliminated on the first blind level.

[biondino]

Trebor, do you think that too much time playing poker can adversely affect your social skills?

[chardrian]

if you are playing 20 180s you are either inexperianced or not good .

Why?

In general, I agree that these are fishfests. But that makes them a great place to play for a good player with not a huge bankroll.

[soupie]

Trebor,

Perhaps no one told you we tend to encourage people to be polite, courteous, and friendly. Telling someone they are not good, probably not good, or inexperienced really doesnt do much other than piss people off.

Courtiebees question was a good one. You would do well to deal with the question without making personal comments.

soupie

[givememyleg]

But ehh your question was specific to a 20 180 ... so your probably not a very good player, and your opponents all suck.

Meh.. that's a pretty stereotypical response that has no value of information. It is one thing to say "most of the people that play these aren't good," which I and most of the people would agree with. It is another to say "YOU are not very good because you play these." That is totally incorrect. Why not say women can't play poker as well as men while you're at it. Regardless of how good you are/think you are, you sure need to work on your social skills.

[geoffm33]

But ehh your question was specific to a 20 180 ... so your probably not a very good player, and your opponents all suck.

I must suck really bad then

[donkbee]

Hey guys, thanks a lot for all the great replies. It was definitely a tough hand for me, and I'm kind of glad to see that there is no clear-cut answer.

And chard, you wanted results? I ended up calling, and he had AA. lol