A flush on the flop (or "playing suited connectors"

[Anosmic]

Okay, it's clear that I don't know how to play this sort of hand. I have no real plan here I was playing it by ear.

Hope the format is readable, doesn't seem to be any Everest convertors out there (wonder why.. ).

Everest Poker — Hand Details
Tournament Table: Fuji-60
Game Type: Hold'em
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00

Seating Arrangement:
UTG+2 is at seat 1 with 150.00.
MP1 is at seat 2 with 98.00.
MP2 is at seat 3 with 203.00.
MP3 is at seat 4 with 57.50.
CO is at seat 5 with 97.00.
Hero is at seat 6 with 98.50.
BB is at seat 8 with 100.00.
UTG is at seat 9 with 96.00.
UTG+1 is at seat 10 with 100.00.

Post Blinds:
The button is at seat 6.
BB posts the big blind of 1.00.

Deal Pocket Cards:
Hero: 5c 6c

Don't normally play these, certainly not so early, but am on the button so I thought I'd give it a go.

Pre-flop:
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls,
1 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls. BB Checks.

Flop (Qc 9c 2c):

Okay, I've made my flush but it's a low one. The only possible flush hand that could lose to me is 43s.. what're the odds of someone else hitting their flush on the flop?

BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 raises 7.00,
1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises 14.00
2 fold, UTG+1 raises 14.00, MP3 calls, hero folds.

I took the line that if he called me I'd go after him but a confident re-re-raise was strong enough to make me suspect a strong flush. So I folded to the re-re-raise.

Turn (Qc 9c 2c Qd):
UTG+1 checks.
MP3 raises 35.50 (All-in).
UTG+1 calls 35.50.

River (Qc 9c 2c Qd Jh):
Showdown:
MP3 shows 10c 6h.
MP3 has 9c 10c Jh Qc Qd: Pair
UTG+1 shows Qs 5s.
UTG+1 has 9c Jh Qs Qc Qd: Three of a Kind

So, layed down the winning hand. What can I learn from this (other than don't play suited connectors until you know what you're doing...)? Commit to a do-or-die in this situation? Continue to give in to strong resistance?

[DogOnMySide]

BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 raises 7.00,
1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises 14.00
2 fold, UTG+1 raises 14.00, MP3 calls, hero folds.

I took the line that if he called me I'd go after him but a confident re-re-raise was strong enough to make me suspect a strong flush. So I folded to the re-re-raise.

The thing i have a problem with here is that you MINIMUM RAISED... and then he MINIMUM RAISED you back.

That's not confident betting, that's scared betting. I think you raise him to AT LEAST $30 here.

But at least you had a plan for the hand - always better to have a reason for your actions than to just think "ah i'll raise"

As to the other topic about flush over flush... i'm very interested to see if one of the mathematicians here (are there any?) can work out the following:

if you flop a made flush... what is the probability that another player also has a flush? (you'd have to express it as a function of the number of players, i suppose)

[moiraine57]

Playing at the mini-stakes myself, I feel qualified to answer this question. (25NL).

If you flop a flush with mini-suited connectors, that's a great thing. It's not very likely anyone else flopped a flush but there are plenty of people out there with the Ace of that suit that would love to peel one off, or people who flopped two pair or a set, and would love to see the board pair to make their FH.

In this case, you have to operate like you have the best hand, but a vulnerable best hand. You want to make this moron pay dearly to see the next card that could help him make a better hand than you.

Make a decent sized raise next time. Please.

[swiggidy]

I believe Anosmic raised a bet of 7 (by 14) to 21. Then he got min-re-raised 14 to 35.

When a flush flops, no-one will believe that you hit it. I think you should play this like the nuts and if the board doesn't pair, or another club doesn't come get it all-in on the river.

If that makes you uncomfortable, then like you said, don't play suited connectors. At low stakes, I've pushed over the re-raise and been called by 2 pair. That's gratifying.

If you're going to post your results white them out, my thought process may have been compromised.

As for the math:
Given:
You have suited hand, and the flop was three equal suited cards. There are now 47 cards left in the deck, 8 cards of the same suit and we need to deal x hands. I'm using x = 9 for the example.

Prob one specific person has a matching suited hand (out of 9 people):
total hands: (47, 9*2) * (9*2 - 1)!! = 1.57e20
total hands with one suited: (8, 2) * (47-2, (9-1)*2) * ((9-1)*2 - 1)!! = 3.67e19

3.67e19 / 1.57e20 = 0.233 => 23.3%

# Other Players, prob someone else has flush, odds of another flush
9, 23.3, 1:3.3
8, 20.7, 1:3.8
7, 18.1, 1:4.5
6, 15.5, 1:5.4
5, 13.0, 1:6.7
4, 10.4, 1:8.7
3, 7.8, 1:11.9
2, 5.2, 1:18.3
1, 2.6, 1:37.6

Haha, so it's a straight line. I'm not solving the algebra above (although fairly simple), but it's appx:
2.6% * x

Note: this is the probability that at least one person has a flush. It's less likely, but possible there are 2+.

[TLR]

I raise more on the flpo, if he comes over the top I push, chances are you are ahead

[TLR]

not a math expert but I will take my chance.
5 cards are known, all of the same suite
chances of any playter holding 2 of the same suite:
((13-5)/(52-5))*((13-6)/(52-6))=2.5%

[Anosmic]

My maths skills are pretty poor, but trying to work it out:

I have two cards, of the same suit. That means there are 50 cards left in the deck and 11 of my suit.
The flop comes up with three of them, so that's 47 cards, 8 suited.

Can I then say the chances of someone being dealt one of the suited card as a hole card is 8/47 (17%) and then the chances of them getting the second hole card is 7/46.
I make that around a 3% than a person also made the flush already.

Actually it's a bit worse than that, because the combination 43s loses (but that's 2/47 x 1/46 = 0.1%).

If that's true then with 9 players each with a 3% of having a better hand then I should play it strongly.

As for vulnerability that's harder to figure. In order for someone to come in with one club it'd probably either have to be A-J (people play Jxo because of the pretty pictures on the card), the lower clubs would either have to unsuited connectors (but shouldn't be), pocket pairs (unlikely) or be the x in a Ax-Jx sort of hand.

No, the more I think about it, flopping a flush is likely to be the best hand and if someone is drawing to a higher flush (<30%) they should pay big to catch it.

Right, from now I'm I'm raising these big.

But how much?
30 sounds high.
The pot is 21 when it comes to me and the bet is 7.
I put in 14 (2/3 pot), I can see putting in 21, why go > 1xpot?
Or is the idea of betting up to pot-sized bets only applicapble to bets, not raises?


(BTW, if anyone sees where my maths goes wrong, please do let me know).

[Edit:]Everyone else posted while I was trying to writing my post
Seems my 3% (rounding up) wasn't bad.

I'll remember to white things out in the future!
As for the amount of the raises, the HH is a bit confusing and I didn't interpret it right. The value they give is the amount put into the pot so it actually was (bet 7, raise 7 (i.e. put in 14), raise 7 (i.e. put in 14 more) etc...)
So I guess I did hit min-raise.

Bad Anosmic. Bad.

[Xanadu]

Everyone's math is pretty close. There are a couple important questions to ask which aren't so easily quantified. One is, the chances someone called preflop because they were suited and then continued postflop because they made the flush (not terribly hard to estimate). The second is 'how much does the flop raise indicate a flush? There is always a conditional expectation from the other players' play. The question is how ofetn does the raise mean a flush and how often does it mean a bluff or another strong hand?'