Final table, 3-handed

[arkana]

This hand is based on a hand I played (the details might not be 100% accurate).

Background:

Final table of a $30 RA, smallish field, standard payout structure and first is $1.5k. You are in the BB with 32k, the SB has 38k and the button has 70k. Blinds have very recently gone up to 1k/2k .

All players have been playing pretty TAG since it became 3-handed. The SB has been raising when folded to in the SB about 20-40% and so far hero has folded to his raises except for one that he called and folded to a bet on the flop.

Hand:

Button folds, SB raises to 8k. What hands do you push with here if you are Hero and what hands would you call a push with if you are the SB given Hero's image. I found this to be quite an interesting hands but I will post my thoughts later. Also I would prefer if you dont post just hand ranges but also your reasoning and any other analysis.

[gabe]

what are the payouts? if theres a big difference between 2nd and 3rd, i would be pushing over his raises with any two cards, especially if i playing kinda weak.

i don't think his raising range is really important. the most important is what he calls a push with. if hes only willing to call with 10% of the hands he raises with, then pushing is always a good play with those stack sizes.

[donder2]

I would play the cards not the bets at this time as always. if my hold cards were playable, I would call, but the wonderful 72, 83, ect I would fold, then after having established to the bully that im weak he gets into a pattern of doubling up EVERYTHING and when I get players I would reraise his raise considerably ( and usually they fold) or call but at least I get to see the flop to try and take the hand. Sometimes looking weak is a stradegy.

[gabe]

I would play the cards not the bets at this time as always. if my hold cards were playable, I would call, but the wonderful 72, 83, ect I would fold, then after having established to the bully that im weak he gets into a pattern of doubling up EVERYTHING and when I get players I would reraise his raise considerably ( and usually they fold) or call but at least I get to see the flop to try and take the hand. Sometimes looking weak is a stradegy.

whats the point of having good cards if you never plan on going to showdown? cards are overrated when the blinds are big in tournaments.

[Rondavu]

I would play the cards not the bets at this time as always. if my hold cards were playable, I would call, but the wonderful 72, 83, ect I would fold, then after having established to the bully that im weak he gets into a pattern of doubling up EVERYTHING and when I get players I would reraise his raise considerably ( and usually they fold) or call but at least I get to see the flop to try and take the hand. Sometimes looking weak is a stradegy.

whats the point of having good cards if you never plan on going to showdown? cards are overrated when the blinds are big in tournaments.

Quoted for truth

Start pushing against his wide raising range, and you'll get more respect, which will (hopefully) tighten his raising range, and loosen his push call range for when you push a beauty. What will usually happen is eventually you'll push something like AQ after he raises, and he'll call with AT not wanting to be "Pushed around anymore".

The tricky part of this common scenerio is knowing exactly where the line will be drawn by the opponent, and shifting away from marginal representation at that time.

[LeFou]

whats the point of having good cards if you never plan on going to showdown?

So what are you doing with good cards? Smooth call PF and CR any flop?

[arkana]

Thanks for the replies, dont forget to mention what your calling range for a push is if you are the SB.

Im also interested in how much you guys think the 8k in the pot is worth with those stacks and those blinds (you go up to 40k, SB drops to 30k) as well as the effect it will have on the SBs play from the small blind in the future and how that benefits you.

Also how much is the 8k in the pot worth if you and the SB both have 8k less to start with or 8k more.

Things that im looking to be brought into the discussion is stack classes (using Harringtons model or any other) and ICM (especially its shortcomings).

Payouts:
1st - $1500
2nd - $900
3rd - $600

[arkana]

Let me get the party started, according to ICM if you fold the hand you have a $EV of $882 and if you pick up the 8k in the pot by pushing over the SB's raise and he folds your $EV goes up to $966. I think the difference should be bigger.

[gabe]

whats the point of having good cards if you never plan on going to showdown?

So what are you doing with good cards? Smooth call PF and CR any flop?

that really depends on the person..but i'll really own smooth call with AA or KK.

it sounds bad and really exploitable, but people won't pick up on it until you busted them with your smoothcalled AA or you have a big lead from restealing so much

[gabe]

Let me get the party started, according to ICM if you fold the hand you have a $EV of $882 and if you pick up the 8k in the pot by pushing over the SB's raise and he folds your $EV goes up to $966. I think the difference should be bigger.

there are some other good things about restealing that aren't really quantifiable, like the fact that he is less likely to steal from you if you keep doing it.

[chardrian]

That seems about right to me. The real battle in this specific hand is simply between who is gonna try and take 2nd place away from the other. The 11k in the pot is big just not a huge drastic difference.

Anyhoo - as for this hand - you must've been folding previously for a reason (probably bad cards) but in doing so you've set up a nice image as a good tight player. This is a great opportunity to pop back with any two cards. He will most probably fold and now you have effectively taken the chip-stack advantage away from him and might also put an end to his consistent blind stealing for a bit at least.

Because of your prior tight play, I am probably folding a whole bunch of hnads if I am the SB. Hands around 77 and below and AJ and below would make me think real long and hard about whether or not to fold if I was in the SB there. Anything worse and I'm probably gettign out of the way.

[arkana]

gabe, chardrian: pretty much my thoughts

If I folded this hand I would have been left with 30k while my opponent would have increased his stack to 40k. By pushing over his raise my stack is increased to 40k and he is left with 30k (if he folds).

I see the difference between 30k and 40k at this blind level to be much larger than the difference between say 40k and 50k. With 30k you have an M of 10 and you are in the uncomfortable zone (5 < M < 10) where if you raise pf and c-bet the flop you have invested almost half your stack (3xBB raise + 2/3 pot = 14k, even worse if you raised 4xBB). This is the zone where most players tend to tighten up and play it cautious since they are not that threatened by the blinds that they have to push\fold but one mistake can put them in that position. If I can push my opponent into this zone and at the same time get myself into the higher zone (M > 10) then i have drastically changed the dynamic between us.

I see it as a critical point and that the 8k in the pot is worth much more to me at this point than what ICM suggests.