600NL Second Nutz on flop with 200bb

[ilikeaces86]

Hero is dealt KcJC and raises from CO to 20 button calls and its heads up to flop.

Flop
5c6c9c Hero bets 50 villain raises to 150 Hero raise to 450 Villain pushes for 1300 and barely has hero covered. Easiest call in the world right?

[PO$$E$$ED]

easy fold

[gabe]

you don't post reads much. also, how many people at the table?

[Irisheyes]

Theres no way I fold anyway.

[dsaxton]

Easiest call in the world.

[Pingviini]

Gotta agree with gabe. Impossible to give a good answer here without knowing both of your images.

[ilikeaces86]

easy fold

BRB BBQ?

[beez]

i think he makes this same move with a set or a lower flush, i can't see myself laying this down.

[PO$$E$$ED]

easy fold

BRB BBQ?

i wood've foded it preflop
kojack sux I'm always loosing big pots wit it
i like 69 of harts tho
i always play 69 of harts cuz it's my luky hand
u guys shood start calling 69 harts "the sex hand"
cuz thats wat I lik to call it
"the sex hand" get it lol 69 lol

[bigred]

easy fold

BRB BBQ?

i wood've foded it preflop
kojack sux I'm always loosing big pots wit it
i like 69 of harts tho
i always play 69 of harts cuz it's my luky hand
u guys shood start calling 69 harts "the sex hand"
cuz thats wat I lik to call it
"the sex hand" get it lol 69 lol

You know what's more fun? Walking into traffic with a blindfold. you should try it, gangsta.

[ProZachNation]

I think he makes this move with lower flush, Ac, or a set.

I would call

[bluey]

I think he makes this move with lower flush, Ac, or a set.

I would call

hahahahah

[bigred]

I think he makes this move with lower flush, Ac, or a set.

I would call

hahahahah

[dsaxton]

How frequently do typical players play the nut flush like this? Almost never. How often do they play sets and smaller flushes like this? Almost always. Easiest call ever.

[PO$$E$$ED]

ilikeaces this joke wasn't very funny
I know u can do better than this

[ilikeaces86]

ilikeaces this joke wasn't very funny
I know u can do better than this

So this guy walks into a bar and is like BRB BBQ....

[Irisheyes]

I think he makes this move with lower flush, Ac, or a set.

I would call

hahahahah

haha

[Muxy]

ilikeaces this joke wasn't very funny
I know u can do better than this

So this guy walks into a bar and is like BRB BBQ....

ahhahahah

[KY_Ace]

I don't think somone'd be that reckless with a set HU but i'd say he's gonna flip over a smaller flush at least half the time. However 1300 is a HUGE amount to lose in one hand of 600 NL without the nuts, especially since the pot is only 50 on the flop. This is almost identical to the "would you ever fold KK pre-flop?" scenario. If I had a read on the guy as a tight player and the raises come without hesitation, I might consider folding. A really fast reraise might worry me, if you had a Q high flush and someone raised it to 450 you'd have to think a little bit before raising it to 1300 AI. I'd still call 90% of the time, especially if I'm multi-tabling with no reads but it wouldn't be an "easy call".

[arkana]

Call and its not the second nutz, did you forget about 7c8c?

[WildBobAA]

Definatly not an easy call. His line is screaming nothing but strength. Would expect to see :Ac: :Qc: here or at the very least :Ac: :Tc:. However, I'm definatly not good enough to fold this. I call and pray he has a lower flush.

A read helps so much here Would he call a raise suited connectors like :Qc: :Tc I mean that's the only other feasable hand like this he'd be calling with. He can't have 9T clubs or 98 clubs. 87 of clubs maybe but that's about it. And personally, I would have no problem opening a pot with suited trash like this but I wouldn't be calling raises with it unless it's a big multiway pot. The more I think about this, the more I think he's got :Ac: :Qc:.

[zenbitz]

He could also have



:Tc: :Td:
:Qc: :Qd:
:Ac: :Ad:

Or no clubs with an overpair, or set. I think that QQ might have re-raised PF, but AA doesn't always (and cries when this flops)

A smaller flush seems really, really unlikely here.

[Fnord]

Yeah, I think you need to be deeper with more information on your opponent to even think about a laydown here.

I started doing the math in terms of # of cominations Aces is ahead vs behind. But the bitch of this is that if he's beat, he's drawing dead. However, is opponent is probably drawing very live if he's behind and went this deep with his hand. Hence, it wouldn't surprise me for a fold to be correct if we were 300bb deep.

[johnny_fish]

50% nut flush or A-flush, 10% lower flush, 20% set, 20% flushdraw.

Chance of winning: 50%*0+10%*100+20%*70+20%*70=38%.

850/2600=33%.

1450/3800=38%..

You need to have an (impossible) good read to fold this.

[WildBobAA]

He could also have



:Tc: :Td:
:Qc: :Qd:
:Ac: :Ad:

Or no clubs with an overpair, or set. I think that QQ might have re-raised PF, but AA doesn't always (and cries when this flops)

A smaller flush seems really, really unlikely here.

No way he puts in the 4th raise with 7s, 8s, or Ts. aces bet, he checkraised, aces raised again, basically telling him he had a made set/straight/flush (and he wants to play for stacks) and he pushed, putting in the 4th bet. A good player would be able to get away from QQ or AA here even if they have the club. I could maybe see him overplaying AA with the :Ac: but he's folding QQ. He's folding an overpair with no club and he's most likely folding the straight for fear that he's drawing dead. I mean, it's possible he has the straight but he'd be have to be a pretty big donkey to go broke with this after aces told him that they are playing for stacks. He has a set or a flush.

[Aquinas]

I call this every day. Every night. Always. I've played my share of 600 -1k nl on party and pacific, and am a nice consistant looser in the games (down about 10k from them -ouch!-luckily I still pwn the multis ) so u can trust me.

[Scuba Chuck]

Besides a read on your opponent, it would be very helpful for us to get an assumption of his read on you. I think the more loose he thinks you are, the more his hand range really opens up, even against a tighty. Furthermore, do you have a history of calling off your stack against the nuts with this guy?

BTW, I certainly doubt our villain has the 8c7c here. The only way I think otherwise, is if our villain has some incredible read on our hero.

He could also have



:Tc: :Td:
:Qc: :Qd:
:Ac: :Ad:

Or no clubs with an overpair, or set. I think that QQ might have re-raised PF, but AA doesn't always (and cries when this flops)

A smaller flush seems really, really unlikely here.

I really think you need to add 87s to your hand range above.

[zenbitz]

I really think you need to add 87s to your hand range above.

I assume you mean "not clubs"... or actually... Pushing here is not totally insane with




But I would think he would have to have at least 1 club. Otherwise he is re-raising all in praying you don't have a club. Oh, but he wouldn't call 87o pre-flop would he?

So you do mean 87s non-clubs.... that's seems pretty bold. Does adding this with equal probability shift from fold to call? It's a call, anyway right?

[dsaxton]

I don't really get why there is discussion over this hand. If you don't instantly call this, you should probably consider quitting poker.

[PO$$E$$ED]

I don't really get why there is discussion over this hand. If you don't instantly call this, you should probably consider quitting poker.

this thread belongs in tales of poker