3/6 NL full River all-in bluff

[spino1i]

Villain is a decent conservative TAG player. Whats your play on the river and why? Do you like my idea of pushing all-in?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 ($130.65)
MP2 ($306.97)
MP3 ($128.40)
CO ($658.95)
Hero ($615)
SB ($752)
BB ($823)
UTG ($618.60)
UTG+1 ($179.53)
UTG+2 ($216.53)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, 9. SB posts a blind of $3.
7 folds, Hero raises to $18, 1 fold, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($39) 8, 3, T (2 players)
BB bets $35, Hero calls $35.

Turn: ($109) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $100, Hero calls $100.

River: ($309) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $80, Hero pushes all-in???

[Bmxicle]

not bad at all, especially if you can say he wont second barrell semi-bluff the turn.

[gabe]

why bluff with a hand that has showdown value?

[Bmxicle]

why bluff with a hand that has showdown value?

That looks like a blocking bet on the river to me, why would someone make a blocking bet with any hand that he beats?

[zenbitz]

Is TPNK a bluff? Do you mean fake bluff? That's the only reason I can see to make this raise. Do you think he lays down a set? Ok, maybe he folds TPGK and 2Pair.

Is it worth the risk?? Why wouldn't he bet a rivered nut flush like this?? If you have crap it's a value bet - maybe a little small. If you get aggro, he stack you.

[ilikeaces86]

I like it.

[Bmxicle]

I like it.

I don't like it anymore.

[aleksandr]

Scary play, but when it works, it works. You're repping a set here.

If he's known to semibluff his draws, I can see making this play and losing it alot to a flush, but if not, repping the set here looks sexy.

[DoGGz]

I don't like the push. A raise to 350 is much MUCH more scary. Make it look like you want a call. It will make him fold just as often, and if your beat it won't cost your whole stack.

[Lukie]

I can't say I like it. The river.. maybe.. it's your last chance to win the hand because you are clearly beat. The hand.. not really. First, If you have the flush, are you going to be calling down 2 pot-sized bets in a raised pot? Probably not. If you have the set, are you going to wait until the river brings the 3rd flush card (on top of the 3rd straight card on the turn) until you make an agressive move? Probably not...

More importantly, you are putting your entire stack on the line this hand without ever having any idea where you are at. By the river, it's very clear that you are beat, it's just a matter of whether or not you can push him off his hand. In my experience, I like to save my bluffs for when I feel weakness... trying to push people off hands often ends in frustration, especially when your betting sequence in the hand just doesn't make sense from villain's point of view.

I think I raise this flop. Use your positional advantage and find out where you are in the hand while the betting is comparitively inexpensive. If he 3-bets you it's quite an easy fold based on your reads, and if he calls you are probably beat. If he checks to you on the turn, and depending on the turn card, best lines here IMO would be to fire again on the turn + check behind river, or turn check behind with the intention of picking off a river bluff. I probably go with the first. If he makes an agressive move at you after you raised twice in the hand it's time to get out.

[Bmxicle]

lukie i think opp folds hand more than 50% of the time, thus it is +EV. You can say he played the hand badly, but i still like the river push, no matter how he got there.

[homeboy604]

i highly doubt that the villian has anything that can call an all in on the river, so its a good bet. villian probably had JJ-to something like A T, so no way he can call.

[!Luck]

That small bet yells trap. Just call there have to be better times to risk your stack.