pot odds, implied odds and knowing your opponent

[bunthorne]

I read a lot of comments about pot odds and implied odds on this forum, all of which I understand and appreciate. As with most players, I am always thinking about odds, but I am also thinking more about something which in my view is more important, and that is my opponent.

I had a long debate the other night with a player over a hypothetical scenario involving AA in the hole. Imagine it is the first round of a tournament (or perhaps even a cash game) and you hold AA in the big blind. Everyon has an equal number of chips. One player goes all-in and is called by four others. The action reaches you in the big blind.

You know (let's just accept this) that you are a superior player to the others. What do you do in this situatiuon?

You fold!

You know your opponents could be playing anything and although your AA has a 33% chance of winning, you've got a 67% chance of losing!

If you are a superior player, you don't get involved in tussels like this with weaker players. You keep hold of your chips and outplay them on the flop, turn and river. Why jeopardise your stack unnecessarily.

However, some players will not have this and believe that because they are contributing about 16% of the chips to the pot and are getting odds of 33%, then the call is correct. Against weaker players that you can outplay, it is not. If you always and only play the maths and the odds, skilled opponents will pick up on this and take you to the cleaners.

[finky]

Easy easy easy call.
If you are a better player, you take any big edge you can. You have one here and you take it.

And the math is slightly off

148,001,103 games 793.453 secs 186,527 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.8759 % 55.65% 00.22% { AA }
Hand 2: 11.0349 % 10.48% 00.55% { random }
Hand 3: 11.0308 % 10.48% 00.55% { random }
Hand 4: 11.0299 % 10.48% 00.55% { random }
Hand 5: 11.0286 % 10.48% 00.55% { random }

Or more likely something like...

4,409,862,912 games 11.187 secs 394,195,308 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 54.2924 % 53.90% 00.39% { AA }
Hand 2: 03.5648 % 02.38% 01.19% { AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 03.5648 % 02.38% 01.19% { AKs, AKo }
Hand 4: 20.2992 % 20.21% 00.09% { QQ }
Hand 5: 18.2789 % 18.19% 00.09% { JJ }

Either way you have a chance to get 5*your stack on a coin flip which, if you are a good player, you can use to bully your way to the final table. In almost every poker hand there is an element of risk. If your not going to take risks when the odds are heavly in your favour then maybe your not as good as you thought you were. If they are bad players that are always pushing pre-flop then the ONLY way to beat them is by calling with a better starting hand.

[littlewashu]

Against four other players yes I would fold there are just to many ways to loose and I agree that in that situation its way to early to risk all of youre chips. Now where I dont agree if its only one or two players then thats way different. Would rather have a heads up but just might do it with 2 opps heres why. Early in a tourny its very important to get as many chips as you can so you can ride out a downturn or play a little more agressively than you would with a smaller stack. I did this last week ina national pub poker league tourny made my all in collected a nice pot and allowed me to ride out one bad beat and still win. One other thing there is no skill involved after you have committed to an all in. its just the fall of the cards. the REAL skill is knowing when to go all in!!

[bunthorne]

Against four other players yes I would fold there are just to many ways to loose and I agree that in that situation its way to early to risk all of youre chips. Now where I dont agree if its only one or two players then thats way different. Would rather have a heads up but just might do it with 2 opps heres why. Early in a tourny its very important to get as many chips as you can so you can ride out a downturn or play a little more agressively than you would with a smaller stack. I did this last week ina national pub poker league tourny made my all in collected a nice pot and allowed me to ride out one bad beat and still win. One other thing there is no skill involved after you have committed to an all in. its just the fall of the cards. the REAL skill is knowing when to go all in!!

I agree with your analysis. Against one or two opponents of course you go for it. But against four or five there are too many possibilities of things which can hit.

You are right in stating that the skill is knowing when to go all-in, and in the scenario I outlined it is not the time to do it.

Another example is the first round of a freezeout tournament when an opponent goes all-in and you hold KK. Unless you know your opponent may make this move with a range of hands you cannot call. KK is not a good enough hand on which to go out of a tourney in the first round - only AA qualifies on this score.

[bunthorne]

Either way you have a chance to get 5*your stack on a coin flip which, if you are a good player, you can use to bully your way to the final table. In almost every poker hand there is an element of risk. If your not going to take risks when the odds are heavly in your favour then maybe your not as good as you thought you were. If they are bad players that are always pushing pre-flop then the ONLY way to beat them is by calling with a better starting hand.

I disagree.

If this is a freezeout tournament and I fold, four of the five weaker players are going to be eliminated. Then I can focus on the one who is left and begin to pound on him and take advantage of his questionable calls.

But I can only do this if I have got chips and am still in the tourney. If I throw them all-in with five callers and lose then I will not get this opportunity.

Of course you get your money in when the odds are in your favour - that is fundamental. BUT YOU DON'T DO IT IN EVERY SITUATION. And course there is luck and risk in every poker hand, but in the scenario I outlined there is no reason to jeopardise everything. I'll wait for a better opportunity.

[johnny_fish]

You should never play higher than 10NL if you're folding AA preflop in a cash game.

Another 'problem': Villain goes allin every single hand. You hold QQ and are last to act. Call? How about 22? AQ? K8?

[finky]

How can you pound on someone with 5x your stack? Your fold equity against this type of player will be greatly reduced and you will have to rely on cards. He also likes pushing a lot, do you wait for AA again?

[bunthorne]

How can you pound on someone with 5x your stack? Your fold equity against this type of player will be greatly reduced and you will have to rely on cards. He also likes pushing a lot, do you wait for AA again?

not at all - just one double through will make all the difference and now you've only got one fishy pusher to worry about as opposed to five, so you have a better chance of doubling your stack. It's a situational play.

I'm sorry, Finky, but the issue here is that many players insist that you cannot fold AA preflop. Yet all the great players, writers and tutors will tell you that there are situations when you can.

[bunthorne]

You should never play higher than 10NL if you're folding AA preflop in a cash game.

Another 'problem': Villain goes allin every single hand. You hold QQ and are last to act. Call? How about 22? AQ? K8?

I tend to play higher stakes games and let's say that I hold my own.

Re your "problem" - if it is just you against him then of course you call him with QQ if he is a regluar all-in pusher. You'd also call with any pair as if he doesn't have a pair you are favourite.

They key to these scenarios is the number of opponents - I think this is what is not being fully appreciated.

[drmcboy]

good players know that, as good as they are, they are not better than getting a 4/1 price with AA pre flop.

Folding there in the beginning of a tourney is truly terrible play. It's terrible in the middle. It's generally going to be terrible with 5 players left. The only spot a fold works here is in a satellite or really steep payout situation.

The fact that you actually seem to think folding AA pre flop would EVER make sense says a lot. You do not understand pot odds.

[Toe]

Another example is the first round of a freezeout tournament when an opponent goes all-in and you hold KK. Unless you know your opponent may make this move with a range of hands you cannot call. KK is not a good enough hand on which to go out of a tourney in the first round - only AA qualifies on this score.

I totally dont understand this? Your behind to 1 hand. I would be licking my lips at the chance of a first hand double up.

[r8ed]

It would depend on the tournament but if you get up 5x at the beginning of a tourny, you should have an excellent shot at final tabling if not winning. I don't play many tournies but my goal is always first place - not just to do well or even final table. I want the money and the satisfaction of beating everyone else. Grow some balls and call. You are in great shape to win or you save yourself hours grinding in hopes to get in the money.

[finky]

. Yet all the great players, writers and tutors will tell you that there are situations when you can.

Agreed, for the situations drmcboy descibed. But this is not one of them.

This is the closest I could find to a great player.
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...576&m_id=65557

[bunthorne]

good players know that, as good as they are, they are not better than getting a 4/1 price with AA pre flop.

Folding there in the beginning of a tourney is truly terrible play. It's terrible in the middle. It's generally going to be terrible with 5 players left. The only spot a fold works here is in a satellite or really steep payout situation.

The fact that you actually seem to think folding AA pre flop would EVER make sense says a lot. You do not understand pot odds.

Got to disagree with you drmcboy. I fully understand pot odds and the use of these is fundamental to good play. But I use them in different ways to other players and probably different to the way you use them.

Let's go back to the scenario - five all-ins and I hold AA. Against ANY ONE HAND, I am a favourite - probably a huge favourite.

However, against the COMBINED STRENGTH of FIVE OTHER HANDS, I am a dog - the odds are that one of these hands at least is going to hit something to beat me.

In a tournament, it only takes one hand to be eliminated. If this scenario occurs in the first round of a tournament, I will dump the AA as I am 67% to go oput of the tournament in the first hand. I wouldn't dump them against one or two opponents, of course, but against five I will.

It's a question of situation.

But more fundamental than pot odds is to know your opponents and your chance of outplaying them. If all you do is call when the odds are in your favour and play the math, then your play will be routine and mechanical and will lose to better players than yourself - and to worse players who will call and get lucky. If it was just a game of pot odds, why do the better players win consistently? Because there is MUCH MORE to this great game than pot odds!

Poker is about making the wrong move, but at the right time!!

[zenbitz]

You should fold this MAYBE if you drove 6 hours to enter this tourney and if you don't make it ITM you can't buy gas to get home.

In which case, you should get a job, you bum.

In an online tourney - just start another one.

You can fold KK here. Not AA.

In the general case - you are not making a distinction between marginal odds in your favor and big odds in your favor. You are getting 5:2 odds IN YOUR FAVOR to call here. Also, in a ring game, you should technically make all +EV calls, no matter how marginal because you can rebuy. If you can't rebuy (or in first example, buy-in to another tourney) they you need to move down limits.

[finky]

OK then, you fold and from now on you only put your money in when you are certain you are an 70% favorite. Ignoring blinds etc. Lets say it takes 4 of these bets to get up to the stack size you would have had if you called an won.

Please correct my very simple maths but I make it
100 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7 = 24.01% chance of winning them all

[biondino]

You are a slight dog BUT YOU WILL QUINTUPLE UP!!!! Why are you ignoring this fact? You seem to be treating it like AK vs JJ or something - it's nothing of the sort.

And I'm afraid you lost all credibility with the phrase "(or perhaps even a cash game)". This was just a thoughtless mistake and you realise your foolishness, right? Right?

[RiverMonkey]

Yes, there are times in a tourny when folding AA pre-flop is a correct play. e.g. when you are on or close to the bubble and by virtue of sitting out the hand, one or more players are likely to go broke and put you ITM. Or in a tourny with a steep pay-out structure, where again sitting out the hand will likely move you up in real $$s significantly.

The situation you outlined is not the best example of a time to fold AA pre-flop. I'll take a +50% chance to quintuple my chips early in most tournies. Now, if it was a multi-day tourny, it was day-1, and I had put up $10K of my own cash, I might find a fold there, but in general, the situation you outlined is not the best example of a 'fold AA pre-flop' situation.

Also, folding AA pre-flop in a cash game is just plain ridiculous. Especially when you are getting 5:1 on your money. There are no survival considerations to take into account if you are properly bank-rolled. If you still don't get it, calculate the EV of that call and hopefully you'll see the writing on the wall.

[nutsinho]

Hey bunthorne

AKA Mr. "Online Poker is Rigged" http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=10506


You're wrong, again. Listen to the people on this forum who tell you you're wrong. They are better at poker than you. They know more about poker than you. You said you were a lawyer or something so obviously you have a natural tendency to argue and/or enjoy arguing. Well, take a moment before you write your next blatantly retarded post and just think for a minute. If you really think you have a 1 in 2 chance to QUINTUPLE up in the first hour of a tournament while pushing your "safer" edges than going all in with the best hand preflop, then you're wrong. Not even the best player in the world holds this kind of edge

[BankItDrew]

3 Scenerios come of an AA holding facing 6 All-ins when you have an average stack ($100,000). Let's say chip leader at this final table has $400,000.

1) You fold, keep your $100,000. Chip leader has at least $600,000.
2) Call. Lose. 8th place.
3) Call. Win. $700,000. Big time chip leader.

Play to win at all times.

[drmcboy]

poker is a game of placing wagers. If you place them with the correct odds, you will win long term. That is all.

What you don't seem to understand is that when you make one of your 'good player' moves to steal a pot, you are still using odds to make this play. Example:

You call a raise from the BB with XX. The raiser is aggresive and bets almost any flop, but he was seen to check once when he flopped a monster.

The pot is 500 chips.

The flop comes AA3r. You check. Raiser bets 500. You feel this is continue bet and you can pick up the pot with a raise. Pot now contains 1000. If you feel there is a 0 percent chance that opp will call if you re raise, clearly the play is to raise, and the amount of the raise is irrelevant. The raise will always show a profit.

But let's make it more real. Say you feel there is a 50% chance opp will not call a raise. The other 50%, he calls or raises and you lose the pot.

So if you bet 500, 50 % of the time you win 1000. 50 % you lose 500. Every two bets you make 500 chips.

Shift to 33 % win, 67 % lose, and the play evens out. You can still make it, but long term it's break even.

Clearly you can shift the numbers, hands, situations all day. But in the end, when you say you 'know your opponent' what you're really saying is you know the odds he has hands XYZ, the odds your hand will beat those hand, the odds you/he will improve, the odds he will fold those hands, etc. That is both based on the probability of opp holding hands in general (for example, 1/221 he'll have AA) and more specifically based on how you have seen opp play previously.

I can't prove to you your knowledge of these situations doesn't give you a better edge than the AA situation you describe. I'll just tell you that I firmly believe you will not find one winning player who would pass up that spot. Eventually, if you stick with it, you'll figure out why.

I highly suggest reading Theory of Poker.

[bunthorne]

poker is a game of placing wagers. If you place them with the correct odds, you will win long term. That is all.

What you don't seem to understand is that when you make one of your 'good player' moves to steal a pot, you are still using odds to make this play. Example:

You call a raise from the BB with XX. The raiser is aggresive and bets almost any flop, but he was seen to check once when he flopped a monster.

The pot is 500 chips.

The flop comes AA3r. You check. Raiser bets 500. You feel this is continue bet and you can pick up the pot with a raise. Pot now contains 1000. If you feel there is a 0 percent chance that opp will call if you re raise, clearly the play is to raise, and the amount of the raise is irrelevant. The raise will always show a profit.

But let's make it more real. Say you feel there is a 50% chance opp will not call a raise. The other 50%, he calls or raises and you lose the pot.

So if you bet 500, 50 % of the time you win 1000. 50 % you lose 500. Every two bets you make 500 chips.

Shift to 33 % win, 67 % lose, and the play evens out. You can still make it, but long term it's break even.

Clearly you can shift the numbers, hands, situations all day. But in the end, when you say you 'know your opponent' what you're really saying is you know the odds he has hands XYZ, the odds your hand will beat those hand, the odds you/he will improve, the odds he will fold those hands, etc. That is both based on the probability of opp holding hands in general (for example, 1/221 he'll have AA) and more specifically based on how you have seen opp play previously.

I can't prove to you your knowledge of these situations doesn't give you a better edge than the AA situation you describe. I'll just tell you that I firmly believe you will not find one winning player who would pass up that spot. Eventually, if you stick with it, you'll figure out why.

I highly suggest reading Theory of Poker.

I have read Sklansky's Theory of Poker and refer to it regularly, along with many other texts. I particularly like authors such as Brunson, Cloutier and McEvoy.

Ok, most of you don't agree with me, fair enough, but I still make the point.

It is the first hand in a high stakes freeze-out with 10 players, or the first hand in the final table of a major tournament with everyone having equal number of chips. You are Phil Ivey, or Doyle Brunson, or Phil Hellmuth, or Chris Ferguson. In other words you are one of the gretest players in the world, perhaps ever, and all nine of your opponents have very little experience of live play.

What is your advantage over them? Well, your advantages are numerous - your experience, reading skills etc etc.

The hand is dealt and five players go all-in. You look down in the bb at AA. Are you really going to give up all your advantages over these players for the sake of one hand? Any one of the five could beat you. The eyes of the poker world are on you - your reputation is on the line. Are you going to get involved in a dodgy situation like this? Leading with AA is one thing but there are five players all-in before you.

Or are you going to play to your strengths and try to outplay your inexperienced opponents later on on flops, turns and rivers?

If I was any one of the world's greatest in that situation, I know what I would do.

I'm talking about live play here where the tournament is a one off - not online where there are all sorts of tournaments in which you could play if you busted out of this one.

[bunthorne]

[quote="nutsinho"]Hey bunthorne

AKA Mr. "Online Poker is Rigged" http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=10506
/quote]

All in the past - and OF COURSE I was wrong!!!!!!!!

[bunthorne]

You are a slight dog BUT YOU WILL QUINTUPLE UP!!!! Why are you ignoring this fact? You seem to be treating it like AK vs JJ or something - it's nothing of the sort.

And I'm afraid you lost all credibility with the phrase "(or perhaps even a cash game)". This was just a thoughtless mistake and you realise your foolishness, right? Right?

Yeah, ignore the cash game comment.

But I still maintain that it is unwise to call in the first HAND of a tourney with five all-ins with you holding AA. But that's simply how I would play it. Many others will play it differently.

[bunthorne]

Another example is the first round of a freezeout tournament when an opponent goes all-in and you hold KK. Unless you know your opponent may make this move with a range of hands you cannot call. KK is not a good enough hand on which to go out of a tourney in the first round - only AA qualifies on this score.

I totally dont understand this? Your behind to 1 hand. I would be licking my lips at the chance of a first hand double up.

Cloutier and McEvoy are clear on this point - you should not allow yourself to be knocked out of a tourney in the first round when holding KK and your opponent holds AA.

It is only the first hand - the tourney has a hell of a long way to go and you will get opportunities to accumulate chips. If you've worked hard to qualify for the tourney you will kick yourself when your KK loses to AA.

I saw it happen in a live freezeout tournament (£250 entry) in my local casino the other night. The bb raised the pot. The player UTG reraised large and the bb called. Flop came three rags. The bb bet, the UTG raised and the bb called. The bb's KK lost to the UTG's AA and was eliminated.

The bb afterwards claimed there was nothing she could do.

Oh yes there was. The UTG player, who has a reputation of being a good player, tight but aggressive, knows that you shouldn't go out of a tourney in the first hand with KK and so he wouldn't have played the hand as he did unless he had AA. The bb didn't understand this and didn't give sufficient consideration to this possibility. She spent eight hours thumbing through magazines waiting for the tourney to finish!

had she folded her KK when the signs were ominous, she would have lived to play on.

[bunthorne]

It would depend on the tournament but if you get up 5x at the beginning of a tourny, you should have an excellent shot at final tabling if not winning. I don't play many tournies but my goal is always first place - not just to do well or even final table. I want the money and the satisfaction of beating everyone else. Grow some balls and call. You are in great shape to win or you save yourself hours grinding in hopes to get in the money.

I see what you are saying, r8ed, but i think many players are missing the point.

It would depend on my assessment of my chances of winning the tournament and outplaying my opponents. I said at the outset to assume that I am a superior player to the others (whether I am or not is neither here nor there). In such a case, I will not give up my advantage in a situation like this.

If I was an equal or inferior player, then that would be a completely different matter. Then I would call.

This is the point - I want to play to my strengths, not get involved in a tricky situation.

[bunthorne]

This has been an interesting thread, guys, and thanks for your comments.

Clearly we look at poker from different persepctives - and who can say which of us is right? Clearly the majority of the opinions don't agree with me and I can understand that - I'm not going to argue that I am right, just that there are different ways of looking at different situations. Not everyone will play the same two cards or the same situation in precisely the same way.

I will say one thing, though. For me the great joy of poker is that it is a game of people, and outhinking, outreading and outplaying opponents is what it is all about. I don't play my cards - I play my opponents. I don't play mechancially all the time, as it gives my opponents too much information. This means I call when I haven't got the right odds to try to throw others off and will make some odd moves now and again like slow playing AA.

Of course, there is no point in doing this if such play will be lost on your opponents, and so it is a matter of the situation in which one finds oneself.

[johnny_fish]

In a tournament +EV plays could be folded because of the pay-off structure. Easy to see from a utility perspective.

However, I don't think your edge can be so large that folding a 50% opportunity to 'quintuple up' early would be the optimal play.

Blinds have to be really really slow increasing to make that play optimal. No such tournament exists.

[bearcats05]

it would depend on the tournament situation but in a ring game i would never ever fold. you can always rebuy if they are bad players.

[Pelion]

there are some payout structures that would make folding correct but most wouldnt. Also bunthorne i see what you are saying about folding KK, but AA is entirely different. KK is only a 70% favorite over a hand containing an A. AA is a massive favorite over any hand. 90% over Axs, 80% over a PP. The worst you can do with AA is to be up against 67s where you are still a 76% favorite. Against a combination you are at worst about:



equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.3546 % 47.11% 00.25% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 13.5892 % 13.54% 00.05% { 7h6h }
Hand 3: 20.3938 % 20.34% 00.05% { KhKs }
Hand 4: 04.5393 % 04.29% 00.25% { Ah2h }
Hand 5: 14.1230 % 14.07% 00.05% { 5d5h }






Prize structure 1: 5 man SnG
1st - 100%

Prize structure 2: 5man SnG
1st - 60%
2nd-40%

Prize structure 3: Standard MTT > 500 players remain.

In the 1st and 3rd case i call. You need to be prepared to take large edges to accumulate the maximum number of chips to be in position to win (or at least final table) where the big money is. Option 3: A 50% chance to quintuple up is worth taking when the other option is to possibly blind out in 100th for a prize of 0.01% or whatever they offer.

In the second case it is clearly better to fold. The choices are:
1) 100% chance to win 40% if the prize pool now, + and then a possibility of winning 20% more (total 60%) of the prize pool later. Minimum EV = (40+ a bit)% of prize pool.
2) 50% chance to win 60% of the prize pool, 50% chance to finish joint second, splitting 40% of the prize pool with 4 other players for 8% each. EV= 34% of prize pool.

Situation 2 doesnt come up very often in real life. In most cases I call.

[zenbitz]

You can only fold AA if, by folding, you are GUARENTEED more money. So, in Pel's example - your $EV goes way, way up because 3 people are probably out of the tourney, so you get 2nd place for free.

So, I guess this would hold for a standard 9/10 player SNG when you hold AA in the BB and everyone goes all-in infront of you. You have a 99% chance of 2nd place if you fold, which is worth 60% of the the first place prize (which you have maybe a 30-40% chance of winning if you call)

Actually I am just restating what Pelion said. Post whore!