Low Blinds - Folded to you in the CO/Btn

[Staresy]

OK
This is a situation I am having a few problems with at the moment.
I am talking predominantly $11 SnGs here, as this is what I play, but I suppose the $5s and possibly, to a lesser degree, the $22s could equally apply.

the scenario is this.....
• The blinds are still level 1 or 2, possibly level 3, but I’m mainly asking about lvls 1 and 2 (so, 10/20 and 15/30)
• You are sat in the CO or on the Btn
• The action gets folded round to you
• You are sat there with Ace-Mid (5-8, 9 maybe)

Do you look to raise here on the grounds that you are favourite over any random holdings in the blinds?? Or do you just look to preserve chips at this stage on the grounds that people will call you with equally weaker holdings, making it almost a crap shoot?

Bear in mind that it is highly unlikely that you will have any kind of read, let alone solid ones given the blind levels. Also, any edge you may possess in your post-flop ability is also negated to a degree given the stage of the tournament and the buy-in level.

I have used A-mid for the sake of this argument, although I could also ask about other marginal holdings like KT, KJ, QJ – these type of hands.

How about really small pps - 44 and under - how about these? In EP and MP, or in LP with action in front, I can call for set value or release these, depending, but you know you have a strong holding over any random blind hand, but it only takes 1 overcard to have you concerned, let alone 2 or 3 and all the straight, flush, 2-pair type holdings that people at this level could call you down with.

Just interested in comments, because I am feeling like I am caught in the headlights at the moment; almost trapped between wanting to play aggressive and hard with them, but wanting to preserve my chips and giving myself scope to open up and blind steal when it really matters at lvls 4+.

[LeFou]

There are two theories about what the blinds are holding in a spot like this:

1) they are holding average hands (could be anything)
2) (Cloutier's theory) they are holding better-than-average hands. The idea is that X (say, 2) playable hands are dealt each time, and since they weren't up front, they're prolly in back. I don't think this is scientific, though.

But why second-guess yourself? Blinds are low, there's little point and little profit it going for a pick-up. (btw if this is about SNGs it should go in there). Over the course of a tournament you'll have plenty to stress out about. $30 in chips should prolly not be one of them

[CrunchyNuts]

You're right, Cloutier's theory isn't exactly scientific. An easy counter case is 4 people early are delt Axo and fold, the chances of a blind having AA have not gone up.

And there's value in the play here - it's just not in the chips. If you want to establish yourself as an aggressor, here's a cheap chance to do it. Likewise, a fold here people are likely to notice as being quite tight.

But I stopped playing SnGs about a month ago so wtf do I know?

[zenbitz]

As crunchy says, you could play for image. If you want to look tight, just fold. If you want to look loose, raise. If you want to look like a fish, limp (hey, you might hit a monster, too).

As for Cloutier's theory, I think you can demonstrate that it's true mathematically, but the difference is very slim and only exists to the extent that someone entering a pot "defines" their hand as one that "everyone" (an average everyone, here) would play.

So, lets say that everyone always plays 2 high cards (T+) and nothing else.
There are 20 "good" cards and 32 bad ones. The chance of getting a hand (2 good cards) is 20/52 * 19/51 ~= 14%. Chance of getting ONE good card is 48%, 2 bad ones is 37%.

So, if someone folds, he has on average 48/85 = .56 good cards. A random hand has .14 * 2 + .48 = .76 good cards, so you can see that people folding in front "improves" the chances the remaining players getting 2 good cards. Number of pairs should not be effected, but the AVERAGE quality it.

Note that this is true (to some trivially small extent) no matter how loose the folders in front are... as long as "everyone" agrees that on average, high cards are better than low ones.

I leave it as an exercise to the reader to approximate the size of this effect for N folders in front of you (on the button).

[Demiparadigm]

It's not Cloutier's theory, it is technically Tom McEvoy's theory.
And regardless of the theory, I raise a very wide range from the CO/button.
Even if they have 2 "good" cards, they are out of position and will usually miss the flop. The times that your raise is called, a continuation bet usually takes down the pot for a bigger gain than had the blind folded.
Also, there is a good chance that you will have the best hand after the flop, in which case you would want them t ocall your continuation.

[LeFou]

i actually find myself raising more from CO than the button. The reason, of course, is that I WANT that button!

no reason to pay extra for position that i've already got. So i'll limp a fairly wide range on the button.

[Lukie]

Generally I like to raise in this situation. If you are on the button, you are up against 2 random hands, you have position, and you are the preflop agressor. Even if they are calling with comparable hands that you are raising with, they are throwing chips away because they are playing out of position. Doing this on the CO is very similar then doing it OTB if the button folds.