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 Originally Posted by drmcboy
If you don't go broke here, your instinct should tell you to play lower limits.
A proper point is made here. You have to think about how many hands (from poor players) you're ahead of that WILL committ their chips. That includes any Jake, KT, pocket 3's, and pocket 9's. Only two hands beat you... QQ and QJ. QQ is out (unless the villain is very poor) since the villain smooth called a modest raise preflop with one to act behind him. That leaves only QJ.
You are overwhelmingly ahead most of the time in this situation, therefore the correct thing to do is JAM IT.
Anytime you feel that more worse hands are confident than better hands against you, then you need to put it all in.
This is why having a read is so important. What having a loose or tight read on someone does is it tips the scale in one direction or the other. For instance, if you have a tight intelligent read on the villain, you can eliminate KT when the villain goes all in. A smart player would never do that without a full house on that board. A fish does it all day long.
If I had a really smart read on a villain, I very possibly might just call. The reason being he didn't start betting heavy until a river blank. Smells like slowplay from a smart player waiting for an opponent to catch something. here's what I feel a smart player would do with the following hands you have beat...
99 - Flopped a set, improved to a house on the turn. Half the time might raise the flop $7 bet all in fearing straight and flush possibilities. It's push or call with 99 here on the flop. No room for min reraises. 99 acts exactly as your opponent did throughout the hand. Caught the house on turn, and wanted you to catch something or get really aggressive.
QJ - Flopped two pair. acts exactly the same way as 99. Either pushes on the flop or just calls.
33 - Never would stick around
Jx - Gone on the $7 flop bet.
KT - Acts similar to 99 and QJ when you bet $7 fearing a race against a high set that fills up. The key is the all in on the river. KT is then no longer possible from a tight player.
It's not as simple as it looks. I understand what your gut may have been telling you when he bet $12 on a river 3. You gotta think it's either a bluff or a slowplayed house. Either way raising may be pointless because a bluff folds, and a smart player with a better hand rapes you. But given that 99 would act this way in the hands of a good player, and you probably didn't have a definate tight read anyway, you have to lose your chips. Besides, the KT possibility wasn't eliminated before you committed yourself with $24 on the river anyway.
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should I just call the river?
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