The Flop is out to get me.

[G3O]

This seems to happening alot lately. Can someone please offer some guidance?

The Scenario:

1) I have been patiently waiting for playable hole cards for what seems like hours. I typically start tight and play all pairs, group 4+ hands, and Axs when in position. I will fold weaker holdings to moderate pre-flop raises, but will raise with stronger holdings or if in position. Later in the game, I loosen up and include middle suited connectors, and if the game is loose , any two cards that will give me a black-jack hand of 19 or higher.

2) The flop comes down and I completely miss. Help! What do I do now?
Typically, if I raised preflop, then I will make a continuation bet. Sometimes this works, but most of the time, the stronger players expect me to bet and call me. If someone else raised preflop, then I fold. If someone else bets on the flop, then I fold. Am I completely missing something or am I simply screwed at this point?

[EricE]

1) Why do you loosen up later? What has changed?
2) (micros) When I started, I was using continuation bets on all streets when I held overcards. What I found is that I would often lose to pairs because people are willing to play 8,5 and those are the ones pairing the board. Now I just check it out or fold to pressure. You may get a card on the turn or river to allow you to win but you may not. That is why I don’t continuation bet on these. If you do (bet your overcards), you will find you are steadily loosing money.

Also see:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=14292

[G3O]

1) Why do you loosen up later? What has changed?

For a few of reasons.

1) Sorry, I didn't mention it, but I exclusively play online SNG and home tounaments. I find the early stages of these types of games to be loose, and sometimes wild. To protect myself, I stick to the "tight is right" policy until a few people are eliminated and the game settles down.

2) In the later stages of the game, I have a better read on the opponents. Therefore, I know what I can get away with, so I include more hands.

3) Opponents that have survived to the later stages are typically strong and disciplined (but sometimes lucky fools ), that know when to fold. This gives me some leeway to run a bluff/semi-bluff with weaker (not junk) hole cards.

2) (micros) When I started, I was using continuation bets on all streets when I held overcards. What I found is that I would often lose to pairs because people are willing to play 8,5 and those are the ones pairing the board. Now I just check it out or fold to pressure. You may get a card on the turn or river to allow you to win but you may not. That is why I don’t continuation bet on these. If you do (bet your overcards), you will find you are steadily loosing money.

True. I am generally not the type to bet overcards, but to me, checking the flop after raising pre-flop screams "$#@% i missed again! ". Also I find that when I do bet after a missed flop, that the turn card is often checked to me, so it's like a free card. Of course this often backfires, but I guess that's just poker.

[Estrop]

2) In the later stages of the game, I have a better read on the opponents. Therefore, I know what I can get away with, so I include more hands.

I think a lot of it comes down to who is in the pot with you and what reads you have on them. Are they so loose/passive that they'll call you bet drawing with AQ when they missed to hit something? Or are they tight/aggressive and fold because their 55 just missed. If you know your table then you can make moves accordingly to find out where you are at, or if you can take down the pot right now.

[Irisheyes]

Also see:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=14292

Thanks for pointing out this link. I was about to ask a question like that and you just saved me a whole load of typing.

[TLR]

any two cards that will give me a black-jack hand of 19 or higher

This does not make sense to me, Q9o is still crap, I would rather play 68s then Q9o

At later stages of the game just as you have reads on players they have a erad on you. You should try to not fall into a standard pattern as you described in your post

[G3O]

any two cards that will give me a black-jack hand of 19 or higher

This does not make sense to me, Q9o is still crap, I would rather play 68s then Q9o

Fair enough about 68s, but if you are going to quote me, don't take it out of context. I wrote:

"Later in the game, I loosen up and include middle suited connectors,"-like your 68s- " and if the game is loose , any two cards that will give me a black-jack hand of 19 or higher." -IF the game is LOOSE.

Nevertheless, I agree with you. Q9o is pretty weak, but "blackjack 19" is not a hard rule i play by. I simply find converting the cards in to black-jack hands to be a quick determination of their strength.

Anyhow, it doesn't answer the question of what to do when the flop is missed. The idea of stating what hands I play is to show that I'm not waiting for pocket AA before I see a flop.

[drmcboy]

What size continuation bet are you making? Maybe it's too low... if not I honestly don't believe it is being called "most of the time". Should be at least 1/2 PS, I find 3/4 works best but mix it up dependent on the texture of the flop. Most flops miss most hands. Also are you giving up if you get called? That's fine sometimes, but if all you do is bet, get called and give it up players will spot that and call the flop just to see what you do on the turn.

Playing touneys or ring - what stakes?

[G3O]

What size continuation bet are you making? Maybe it's too low... if not I honestly don't believe it is being called "most of the time". Should be at least 1/2 PS, I find 3/4 works best but mix it up dependent on the texture of the flop. Most flops miss most hands. Also are you giving up if you get called? That's fine sometimes, but if all you do is bet, get called and give it up players will spot that and call the flop just to see what you do on the turn.

Playing touneys or ring - what stakes?

Not that big of a continuation bet. Usually the size of the PF raise. I tried the 3/4 pot bet this weekend and got mixed results. The good- alot more people folded and I won a couple pots that way. The bad- it hurts the stack twice as bad when your callers have you beat. Regardless, I think it's a good strategy at the right table. Thanks for the advice.

Maybe you are right about giving it up too easy. A couple of regulars I play against said that I have a tendency to 'play it safe'. I try to use this preception to my advantage, but I wonder how many pots I have surrendered when I had the best hand?

I mostly play live home tourneys. $20 entry w/ limited $20 rebuys is a typical game.