A little knowledge is a dangerous thing

[moiraine57]

I have an observation to make--

I started off, as I think most players do, as a weak tight. I won a little money, over 15 times my initial deposit, but not nearly enough (in my mind) for NL hold em.

So I try to read and study to learn the game better. And now I am finding a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. For example:

I am at a .25-.50 NL table tonight. I have Ah-Qc in mid-position. I don't love it, but I don't hate it. I raise to 3 x BB. I get one caller. Flop comes:

7h 8h Qh

Not a terrible flop for me. I have TPTK and the nut flush draw. Guy bets out like 2x the size of the pot. Before I started reading up, my tight passive nature would have made me fold--with 3 hearts on the board without a made hand, no way would I have called.

Now, after reading poker books, and this web site, I look at this bet for what it is: a probe bet--it is not the bet of a person with a flush or otherwise the nut hand.

I don't have a lot of money left, so I re-raise AI (approx 8x the size of the pot) Guy instantly calls me. No heart comes, and he turns over 7d 8d for two pair.

I'm like, "What?!!! How did you call that pre-flop raise?? Suited connectors are only good as limpers, preferably with 4+ people in the pot! How do you throw out a probe bet, and when the person shows strength, you call anyway??!!"

I am definitely not saying I made the correct play in that situation, although I dunno.

I just feel like my newfound knowledge is becoming a dangerous thing. Before my quest to become a better player, I would have folded that hand. Now I am trying to become a tight aggressive and it seems like I must not be applying my knowledge in the correct way. I know I will eventually learn through these kinks, but in the meantime, my win rate % has gone below what I had as a tight passive.

I am just wondering if anyone else has experienced this--That in trying to make themselves a better player, they actually made themselves a worse player in the short term.

Or maybe I'm just a loser.

[spino1i]

You do know that when you pushed all in with your AQ you were the 51-49 favorite over his bottom two pair. I just ran the odds on Poker Calculator. Basically your two pair + trips + board pairing + flush draw outs were bigger than his made hand.

Perhaps you could have given yourself better odds by playing different, but you defintely did not make a bad play at all, and if done many many times you would make money making this sort of play lol

[evman150]

Beautiful flop for you.

I don't know if I would push on the flop though. What is he going to call with that doesn't beat you? What he had is one of the few hands that he might call with. Most hands he would call with like two hearts or a set or top two pair have you beaten pretty well.

I would just call the bet on the flop. I am drawing to the nuts and right on the flop I may have the best hand anyway. By just calling the pretty weak bet you get a cheap card to draw at the nuts and you encourage him to bluff at you on the turn if he doesn't in fact have a hand because he thinks you're on a draw (which you are but you also have tptk). And if he does have a hand you are saving your money while getting a cheap look at a card to draw out. And if he is betting a K or J flush draw you are also not shutting him out of the pot and losing the money you'll make when the last heart comes.

But I don't think pushing on the flop is necessarily a bad one, just not the optimal one imo.

Edit: Whoops, I thought you had said he bet out 2xBB on the flop, not 2x pot. In that case, ignore what I wrote, that is advice for when he makes a weak bet at the pot. When he makes the bet he did I think you have to push or fold depending on what if any read you have on him. Probably the only time I fold this is if I know the guy to be a rock. Otherwise I push and hope he a) folds b) is protecting a hand like KhQx or c) gets drawn out on by ME!

[DimitriT]

I see nothing wrong with that play.

NL is a very different game from limit. There's a lot more creativity and overall shenanigans going on. There may be subtle leaks in your play you need to identify and work on.

Don't strive to make yourself TAG just because you're conviced its the most efficient style of play. Every table, plr and hand is different. There are many cases where the most efficient play is passive. A LAG table (and they are very common) makes passive play more efficient. For instance, on a real LAG table, you may want to limp in with that AQ since you know that a) its still a drawing hand b) your PFR will get called by gargbage anyway c) when you do hit they will still pay you right down to the river.

Sklansky has a section torwards the back of his book on table style.

[drmcboy]

2x PS is not a probe bet. Probe bet is more like 1/3-1/2 PS. It's a play you make when you don't have much trying to pick up the pot cheaply... if you pick up the pot 1 in three times or so it's profitable.

I don't see folding here, g00t push, too many hands you have beat or are a flip with can make this play.